Growth

China’s economy is sluggish in the new year

If you believe the leading indicators, then China’s economy in the new year has not started well. Two economic indexes are in January please – only in the service sector, there are bright spots.

The Chinese industry is also the beginning of the year has shrunk. The official purchasing managers ‘ index for the sector fell in January was surprisingly strong and showed itself as weak as it’s been about three and a half years, not more. Also, the Index of the media group Caixin, the private sector is increasingly taking into account, shows a Shrinking of the industry. He is, however, higher than many experts feared.

The industry struggles with falling prices and a weak capacity utilization of steel mills or power plants. The people’s Republic of build in many industries the capacity considerably, said Commerzbank economist Zhou Hao. The associated weaker demand for raw materials and intermediate products could, with time, the pressure on the commodity prices increase, it is further.

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Schrumpfkur costs Jobs

The official Xinhua news Agency had in the past week reported that the planned downsizing of the steel industry up to 400,000 jobs could cost. Also on Monday published indices showed that companies vacant positions and the demand from home and abroad remains weak.

The official purchasing managers ‘ index dropped to 49,4 and thus to the lowest level since August 2012. Experts had with 49.6 points easily. The Caixin Index rose slightly to 48.4 points, while analysts 48,0 had expected. Both barometers but significantly below the threshold of 50, the growth signals.

“Recent macroeconomic indicators show that the economy still further through the bottom moves and the efforts to reduce Overcapacity, are just starting to produce results,” said Caixin-chief economist He Fan. Especially the slower decline in new orders have the Index be more moderate. The Chinese economy will stand in the face of continuing global turbulence further enormous pressure, said the Economist.

Betting against the Yuan

A ray of hope for the Chinese economy remains, however, the service sector, which is already 2015, an important contribution to the growth made, and where many jobs were created. The official purchasing managers ‘ index for the sector fell in January, although to 53.5 of 54.4 in the previous month. This value indicates, but still a significant growth. The governance in Beijing is under pressure because dieWirtschaft after a decades-long Boom considerably cooled down. After the turbulence on the stock markets and the Fall of the Yuans, you tried to, has the trust of investors recover.

Meanwhile, some large hedge funds apparently attributable to a decline of the Chinese currency Yuan compared to the Dollar. So own Greenlight Capital options, a weakness of the Chinese currency auszahlten, reports the “Wall Street Journal”. The Fund Hayman Capital Management have 85 percent of their Portfolios in betting against the Yuan and Hong Kong dollars. Also, Fund managers Stanley Druckenmiller and David Tepper would have to be against the Yuan positions, reported the sheet.

The Chinese currency is under pressure because the economy of the people’s Republic as slow as since 25 years, no longer growing, it is in the financial markets, strong price swings and a lot of capital outflows. In addition, the U.S. Federal Reserve, interest rates increased again. This makes the Dollar to rise, because American assets are more attractive.

Who/gri (dpa, rtr)