Raw materials
The black Gold on Sale
The price of Oil reached the beginning of 2016 a 12-year low. Reason is, among other things, the Oil, with Saudi Arabia the global market is flooded, but experts believe that the market is now self-correcting.
By continually evolving procedures can stocks be tapped, of which there are only a few years ago said that they were never accessible. The floor of the New York-based commodity exchange NYMEX’s not really a parquet. The dark PVC floor swallows the few sounds in the hall, half empty in the Schummerlicht is situated. Jeffrey Grossman wears his grey Börsenkittel. He crouches behind one of the last stalls. His coffee is cold, the phone rings at the moment too often. He throws a glance at the glowing display, and sinks back in his chair. The price of Oil falls more, he even rises again. Grossman and his colleagues have for decades been in the business and used to something. “Oil has always been a brutal business,” says Grossman. But this Time it was different.
In the first days of the young year 2016 fell the price of Oil in the meantime to under 30 dollars. Meanwhile, a Liter of milk in class Three at the commodity exchange in Chicago is twice as expensive acted like the same amount of Oil. A massive loss of value, which nobody had expected. Even old pros like Jeffrey Grossman are surprised. “It went much too fast and much too strong to the bottom,” he says. Shortly before the financial crisis we have feared, the demand would literally overheat, says Antoine Halff, from the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University in New York. “Many places on the war to the resource.”
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Low Oil price fuels Fears for economy 25.01.2016)
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Low Oil price fuels Fears for economy 25.01.2016)
Reasons for the imbalance
The reasons for this imbalance on the world market are diverse. The demand is stagnating, even in emerging markets such as China. America has its Oil, thanks to Fracking may increase and no longer needs to import. The global Ölkonsum this year is rising more slowly than in 2015, estimates the International energy Agency – 1.3 percent, last year it was 1.7 percent.
Also, the Boom in the Schieferölförderung in the United States plays a role. By continually evolving procedures can stocks be tapped, of which there are only a few years ago said that they were never accessible. The extraction of shale oil by Fracking is still very expensive, but could be increasingly cheaper. At the same time, the competition is getting tougher and tougher. “Shale oil could ensure that America remains competitive,” believes Mark Mills from the Manhattan Institute.
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Tough Competition
That the competition is so critical, is also in Saudi Arabia. The monarchy is home to the second largest oil deposits at all, and flooded the world market, increasingly, with the raw material. Initially, in order against the Fracking fight, now, to Iran for access to the market more difficult. In this year, Iran could be between 300,000 and 600,000 barrels a day to market currents.
With the decreasing price of shrinking margins. The British oil company BP estimates that every Dollar the Oil price drops, the profit for the year by 500 million dollars diminishes. The consequences are redundancies. Of 100,000 to 250,000 Workers from the Oil industry in the past 18 months and become unemployed. Especially for States such as Texas, Louisiana, North Dakota, and Alaska has the pressure on prices with devastating consequences. They are financed in large part through the tax revenues from the oil business.
Oil field in Saudi Arabia
The calculus of the Saudis
Could stop the Downward trend by a Förderdrosselung. However, it lacks many of the Faith in Saudi Arabia. Reckless would the Saudis have their share of the market against Iran to defend, so think many in America and Europe – but Antoine Halff does not believe that behind the behavior of a political strategy is. “Your decision, more and more Oil to sell, is rational,” he says. If the price is going down, we needed a larger quantity to sell to the same to make a profit. Also, if the price is even stronger. “What we are about to see, are the market equilibrium and the market price,” said the foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia Adel al-Jubeir, in an Interview with CNN.
Whether a political tactic, or market equilibrium – the result is the same. Smaller competitors are pushed out of the market. Antoine Halff believes that the market for the long term will correct itself. Saudi Arabia suffer under the low prices like the other OPEC States. Also Jeffrey Grossman believes that the depression is reached. “We have a bad news after another on the market bombarding see”; he says. Now it would go up again, at least to some dollars. The current Oil price gives him right – on last Thursday (21.01.2016), he rose for the first Time this year over the 30-us-dollar threshold.