Prime Minister Boris Johnson plays on a risk – instead of Brexit on the 31. October, it offers the British elections on may 12. December. Johnson hopes to have a majority, the stalemate in the house of Commons to break through.
The last elections in December, there were in Britain nearly 100 years ago – and they ended up in a Parliament without a clear majority. To ask to polls, the citizens of this time of the year to the election, is considered a risk: It is often cold and wet, in addition, the British offers merry Christmas party and want to hear from nothing. There’s a more aggressive Brexit-election campaign at the wrong time. Leads in a bad mood, so a low turnout or a single candidate to be the brunt of the wrath of the voters? No one knows it.
Boris Johnson in the cul-de-SAC
After three months in office Boris Johnson as head of government was already at the end. Votes in the lower house, he lost in the series it was clear that he had to act neither for the Brexit for normal government a majority. For him, the call for new elections remained in this Situation, because the way to Brexit-compromises the hard-liners to obstruct him as of his predecessor, Theresa May, in the company’s own ranks.
And a second Referendum for the solution of the Brexit crisis, the conservative party opposes in principle. Too big is the danger that the British would change their mind, and thus a project failed, the main concerns and new brand, the core of the Tories is to become.
It is already clear that the election campaign of bitter and poisoned as all of the previous and the deeply divided country at the end even further apart. The Prime Minister will try to capitalize on this and play the card: “We stand for the people against the useless elites and parliamentarians”. This rhetoric with unprecedented attacks on the house of Commons, he’s been practicing for weeks, which led battles to fierce verbal sludge.
Prime Minister Boris Johnson is hoping for a majority of his party in the lower house after the election
How far Johnson can appeal to voters who come from the with Brexit-resentment-charged hard Tory supporters, is unclear. Finally, he must win the Brexit-voters in traditional Labour constituencies, if he is looking for new majorities. You can, however, by the Eton – and Oxford graduates, Boris Johnson bait, when he comes as “We the people” so? It is possible that the populist mesh works, but it is a risk. Because on the other hand, moderate Conservative of the party’s turn and the liberal Democrats to choose. And frustrated Labour tribal voters could also hike to the Brexit Party.
On the side of the Conservative is that Boris Johnson is regarded as a good campaigner, and in the polls for weeks by a good ten points ahead is. On the other hand, the 2017 was also the case for Theresa May, who was then in the electoral campaign of wood, and insecure and the majority of them lost. The initial position of the Tories is pretty good, but the political landscape is also in the UK, meanwhile, forked as two years ago, and the majority makes forecasts especially difficult.
Labour is in a weak position
In the night from Monday to Tuesday, it had decided the leadership of the Labour Party, all of a sudden a change of direction. At the end of Jeremy Corbyn had run out of excuses to elections to defer, because after the extension of the Brexit period by the EU a No-Deal Brexit was effectively off the table. However, Corbyn, the most unpopular leader of the opposition and head of the Labour party is not in memory, which just invites a re-election adventure.
Jeremy Corbyn of the Labour party will have in the election campaign, probably hard
Many of the members had also argued to the last, however, because they fear the loss of their mandates. In addition, they believe that Boris Johnson would have been disenchanted always more, the longer he would have been helpless and without a majority as the Premier must act. Many Labour MPs voted in because at the end against the elections, although Johnson’s request went through, still with a two-thirds majority.
Labour is not hampered only by its weak party leaders, but also by internal struggles between the Moderate and Left-hand as well as by an unclear attitude towards the Brexit. Jeremy Corbyn, in the heart of a disguised Brexiteer, tried to ride the Tiger and to please both sides. What led to the fact that he followed a policy of firm as well as. He wants to negotiate a new, much better-Brexit Deal with the EU, with customs Union and all the Tinsel, as well as the citizens in a second Referendum, put it to the vote. This diffuse, hard-to-place attitude is likely to be in the election campaign, not a clog on the leg of the Labour candidate.
The party will lose, both in their traditional strongholds of voters to the Tories and the Brexit-party as well as in the liberal Milieu of the big cities of Pro-Europeans in the liberal comment. Of all the possible constellations, it is most unlikely that the Labour Party gains a majority. And, although she encounters an extremely weakened government party. The possible strength of the Tories is made by the extreme weakness of the main opposition party possible in the first place.
The election campaign in the Brexit
Very excited about your chances of the liberal plunge in the electoral battle. You have a clear message and the means: “We don’t want a Brexit!” In order to apply for many pro-European voters currently the only Alternative and clear Option compared to the previously dominant old parties. Because your other choice program aims at the political center and you have a couple of attractive page changer by Labour and the Tories in their ranks, do the math, with about 20 percent in the polls, a decent number of Seats in the next house of Commons.
Boris Johnson, in turn, speaks also of sensational programs for the modernization of hospitals, schools and other infrastructure, but its promise of billions in investments will only be taken to be limited seriously. In principle, it comes to Brexit, We provides the Basis for its populist “against the elites”-election campaign. It is in this political struggle for identity, nationalism, and deep resentment against the other side.
The former British Ambassador to the EU, Ivan Rogers, to his retirement in 2017 as an accurate Brexit-Prophet has been, speculated a few days ago at an event, that this election campaign would lead to ten years of Tory rule. On the other hand, Professor John Curtice is, for decades choice-of Oracle in the UK with a high hit rate, the warned against jumping to conclusions. A record number of members in the next lower house will not belong to the two major parties. Thus, the probability that neither the Tories nor Labour win a majority, the next Parliament could bring back a minority government or a coalition arises. This, however, would be the ultimate irony of the story. In any case, no British election has long since been so exciting and so fateful as this.