Recession, rise of the Right, the end of the Republic?

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Germany has experienced many years of economic boom. Now headlines about job cuts and recession are piling up. Could benefit the AfD in the West? So far, they tend to grow in the East, most recently in Thuringia.

A new crisis could be, “eat in the core of the German economic model, namely the automotive industry with its many suppliers,” says the political scientist Philip Manow of the University of Bremen. Finally, the internal combustion engine is no longer “the technology”, what comes to but in Germany, hundreds of thousands of jobs hung. Continental, Bosch, Ford, Volkswagen and others have already announced the removal of jobs. As a result, he could imagine “very well massive and significant Protest”.

The direction In which such a Protest could go, Manow, in his book “The political Economy of populism, said,” in 2018 already. The right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) won, so its still a Hypothesis, especially of skilled workers of the middle class in the southern States of chosen working in the “core area”. The companies are mainly in Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg.

Political scientist and author Philip Manow: vote for the AfD, not only culturally explain

The people there was very well aware of what to you could be: “20 years in the company, termination, unemployment, and then, after a one and a half years on the social welfare level.” So it has been running since the welfare reforms of the turn of the Millennium. “And this is – roughly speaking – the money wars, the refugees, too.” Therefore, he could well imagine “that people choose rather then to the right”. Not because they were racist, but dissatisfied with the social state. Therefore, the AfD could get into areas of the inlet, where your consent to stagnate values. Currently, the strongholds of the party are in Eastern Germany. The election result in Thuringia shows, the again.

AfD “against the Establishment”

The AfD the topic of economic downturn or recession has been longer on the Agenda. More often, the party sent out in the past few months, press releases, and also said, who in their opinion, is to blame. All other parties had “failed to make the German economy fit for the future”, says the AfD in the Bundestag Deputy, Tino Chrupalla. “The dispute therefore should have the highest priority.”

Tino Chrupalla: The AfD wants to beat off a possible crisis of political capital

Chrupalla is the Vice-Chairman of the AfD in the Bundestag – and the contenders for the party presidency. At least, many thought this in the AfD is a good solution, not more should Alexander Gauland compete as one of two chairmen. Decided at the end of November to be a Federal party.

New voters in sight?

The German right-wing populists are the political consequence of the crisis. The Euro crisis starting in 2010, was her obstetrician, at that time still largely bourgeois Protest for financial stability and the safeguarding of assets. In the refugee crisis in 2015/16, the AfD served as the only party consistently with the theme of migration criticism. This caused a tail wind that contributed to the AfD in all parliaments. Currently, the survey values to stagnate outside of the AfD-strongholds in the East of Germany.

Now it could be a new crisis. Cars that run on petrol or Diesel, are considered to be a climate killer. But they make a significant part of what is globally understood to be “Made in Germany” and are thus decisive for the heavily Export-dependent economy in Germany. The Dilemma: CO2 is bad for the environment; fewer cars mean a weaker economy.

Actually, it’s about the climate

“The climate debate currently mobilise more voters to the AfD, as Fears of an economic downturn,” says the Head of the Institut für demoskopie Allensbach, Renate quiver. Because: “In the case of climate issues, the AfD-supporters differ very clearly from other parties.”

This is also from AfD to hear politicians in the Bundestag. A measurable human influence on the climate is disputed. “The majority holds that the climate debate is covered and the climate, based on policy of the other parties, mostly critical,” says quiver. Thus, the climate issue is “in the circle of AfD followers interactive at present identity – similar, if not the refugee issue pronounced as the 2015/2016”.

From left to right

However, labour and social Affairs, are not actually issues for the left to Protest? Currently he could think of a protest vote for left-wing parties are difficult, says the analyst Manow. On the one hand, the SPD and the left party have written off their traditional clientele “”. On the other hand, the AfD present is now also “social-political profile”.

A “social harnessing globalisation”, is urgently needed, says Chrupalla and there. Especially the middle class have suffered, while a new layer of the super-rich emerged. The debt, he also give the Left, the “failed”. The deregulation of the financial markets – a Central aspect of globalisation – was a “social democratic project”, in Germany the SPD-Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (1998 to 2005) as wanted.

Like 100 years ago?

History is repeating itself? Recession, rise of the Right, the end of the Republic – as in the 1920/30s?

He would warn against Hyster processing, Manow. Did the political climate and everything else as well. A comparison with 1933, i.e. the end of the Weimar Republic and the coming to power of the national socialists, for the plenty of “feeble-minded, and intellectually negligent”. The Situation then had been much more extreme. The AfD was, rather, an indication that there are problems. In these problems, the political debate should start, calls Manow.

The Situation is not comparable to, say, the Demoskopin quiver. The economic and political Situation was completely different now, and there is not a law of nature, which party benefits from crises. In the case of an economic crisis the reaction of the citizens, would depend first and foremost on whether the government circumventing the parties with the Situation in a pragmatic and convincing, explained to quiver. “And economic competence is expected of the citizens, as before, most of the CDU/CSU the course.”

14. November there are new Figures on the economic performance. Experts expect a further decline. A “technical recession” occurs when there are two consecutive quarters of declines – that would be the case. After that, the experts are not in agreement.