Guido Steinberg: “The conflict in the North of Syria are not finished”

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The Kurdish militias in Northern Syria have started to leave the border area of Ras al-Ain. “If the Turks invade, we have to reckon with hundreds of thousands of refugees,” says middle East expert Guido Steinberg.

Funeral of Kurdish victims of the fighting around Ras al-Ain

After the U.S. had withdrawn its troops from the territory, began in Turkey on 9. October invasion of Northern Syria. Your goal: to create A “security zone” in Northern Syria to set up in the territory that was previously controlled by Kurds. Turkey considers the fighters of the Kurdish militia YPG – a partner of the United States in the fight against the “Islamic state” – as a terrorist organization. The Offensive is justified by the government in Ankara as self-defense. Internationally, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for this approach was heavily criticized. Despite an agreed ceasefire in the past days of battles. The human rights organization Amnesty International accuses Turkey of war crimes, including “reckless attacks on residential areas”. Overall, so far, about 500 people have been killed in the Offensive, including at least 72 civilians. Questions on the middle East expert Guido Steinberg.

Deutsche Welle: Mr Steinberg, the Kurdish fighters want to pull out now from an area between Ras al-Ain and Tall Abjad the interior of the country back. It comes after the Turkey, is to be completed by the clearance until Tuesday. The Kurds define the scope of the Turkish security zone, however, unlike Turkey. Before the actual territorial conflict between the Kurds and Turkey, thus, yet?

Guido Steinberg: Yes, it is quite possible that after the ceasefire of five days, the conflict begins anew. The Kurdish and Turkish geographical indications differ widely from each other. The Kurds assume that it Ain going to the strip of Territory between the Tall Abjad and Ras al-while the Turks out of the entire Turkish-Syrian border between the Euphrates and Iraq. If the Turkish government thinks your statement seriously, then we must assume that the Offensive wins in the next couple of days to travel.

Syrian refugees in the camp Baradarash in Iraq

The withdrawal of the Kurdish fighters alone military significance or you may see already the beginning of a ethnic forced displacement of Kurds from the area?

First of all, I believe that the Kurds referred to the SDF, so the Syrian Democratic forces, are well advised the Turks to evade. It is clear that she has, at least, the regular Turkish troops, nothing. Ethnic expulsion is not can I still watch. This could occur, but because many of the Kurds in the border area have great fear of the power of Turkey, and especially in front of the Syrian militias, which work together with the Turks. I assume that most of the Kurds are, at least, to leave Ras al-Ain, and otherwise be a massive bully.

Can you distinguish at all between the Kurdish fighters and the Kurdish civilian population?

All in All, you can tell them apart quite. The Kurdish fighters are a semi-regular troops. They operate mostly in uniforms and the associated markings, but it is quite possible for you to give up this in a street fight. The Problem is that at least the Syrian troops Turkey differ sharply. Every Kurd, is taken, and the military age is, you must expect retaliation, up to and including murder. We have experienced a few days ago that Syrian auxiliary troops of Turkey have killed unarmed prisoners and women.

According to the UN, more than 165,000 people had to leave due to the fighting, their places of origin. Need to set the neighbouring countries on a large number of refugees?

The conflict is not yet over, therefore we have to expect an increase in the numbers of Refugees. The big question is, to what extent Turkey will be able, also to the East are the border areas. There we have the great city of Qamishli and other areas of settlement of Kurds, in which more people live than in Ras al-Ain and Tall Abjad. If the Turks invade there, we have to reckon with hundreds of thousands of refugees in the direction of especially the South and Iraq to flee.

Guido Steinberg

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin welcomes on Tuesday the Turkish head of state Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Sochi. Unlike the West, the leadership shows in Moscow understanding for the claim of Turkey to a security zone on Syrian territory. The United States and Europe seem to have no influence on Erdogan. Could Russia do that?

The Russians have, in any case, influence on President Erdogan. We are now able to observe for years that the Turkey talks with Russia over the issue of Syria. Russia is after the withdrawal of the United States, the only remaining major power in Syria. Erdogan is the increase of power to Putin on this Tuesday, also felt the impact. It is the question of the extent to which Russia actually has an interest in is to stop the Turkish Offensive. I can well imagine that the expansion urge of the Turkey is at least failure in the West of the proposed security zone at the Russian resistance. The cities of Kobane and Manbij so it will probably be an important issue.

Turkey threatens to open to strong criticism of the Turkish military on the border to Greece. This is a serious threat that should the EU Worry?

Erdogan has already made it a few weeks ago by a brief Opening of the border is clear, that it can change its policy at any time. He has received a majority of the six billion Euro, of which he says of the European Union. From his point of view, now would be a good time to show the EU that he can exert pressure. As long as the EU does not develop its own effective border security, it remains vulnerable to blackmail. I assume that Turkey will only send any refugees, if the European Union is at least willing to pay more money.

Guido Steinberg is a middle East expert at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und politik (SWP) in Berlin. From 2002 to 2005 he was lecturer for international terrorism in the Federal Chancellery.

The interview was conducted by Nermin Ismail.

Watch the Video 03:20 Parts

The Plight of the civilians

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Turkey-Offensive: the Plight of The civilians