Washington and Ankara agreed on a cease-fire in Northern Syria. But the agreement leaves open many questions. Experts see obstacles and unresolved questions on the way to a safety zone.
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Turkey and the United States fire break to be agreed in Northern Syria
US Vice-President Mike Pence and the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed in Ankara on a five-day ceasefire in the North of Syria; they still stepped in on Thursday at 22 o’clock. Preceded by a devastating military operation of the Turkish armed forces was gone. Now, Syrian Kurdish militias of the YPG to withdraw from a so-called security zone, to be built along the Turkish-Syrian border. According to the ideas of the Turkish President, you should have a depth of 32 kilometers and a length of 444 miles.
However, the name of the yesterday’s agreement suggests that the fragility of the 13 article comprehensive agreement: The speech is not of a ceasefire, but a “ceasefire”. Thus, the Turkish government has a long-term end to the fighting, agrees to calls for Ankara, firstly, the establishment of the security zone.
Experts doubt – will the YPG is really back, and lay down their arms?
Whether this Zone can also be implemented in practice, however, depends on various factors. Therefore, experts have doubts as to the implementation. “There was already an agreement on a security zone. However, the Americans have not kept to the agreements. Then began the military operation,” says Syria expert Oytun Orhan from the centre for middle Eastern studies, ORSAM in Ankara. “Well, it has changed the output location, but in five days? It will be difficult.”
Disarmament feasible?
The agreement of Ankara also contains the claim that the Kurdish militia YPG puts their heavy weapons. These should then be collected. In addition, positions and fortifications of the YPG is to be reduced. It is unclear who will take on this task. Turkish authorities are demanding that the responsibility of the US lying to Americans. However, experts suggest that Washington will take care of first and foremost the withdrawal of its troops. “The American soldiers have pulled back from the Region to the East of the Euphrates. So, it’s not realistic that you take care of in the North of Syria to the disarmament of the YPG militias,” says the expert for security policy, Metin Gürcan.
The most important point in the agreement for the establishment of a safety zone. US Vice-President Mike Pence confirmed to a depth of 20 miles, about 32 kilometres. However, this part of the agreement was not recorded in writing. It is a purely oral agreement; the Turkish diplomats confirm. For experts, a lack of clarity on this issue could grow up to be a decisive obstacle to approach. “In August of 2019, there was already an agreement – the safety zone should cover the whole of the Syrian border. But the exact boundary of the safety zone is not in the text of the agreement,” – said the Moscow political scientists Kerim Has.
The Factor Of Sochi
The agreement between Ankara and Washington, is regarded as a diplomatic success, and, temporarily, the blood has stopped shedding. Both sides have a negotiating success. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin has a say in Syria is a word, because Russia is considered to be protecting power of the government in Damascus. At a Meeting on 22. October between Putin and Erdogan in Sochi will try to Ankara to meet with Russia agreement on Northern Syria.
Putin also would like to say a word. 22. October in Sochi, he gets the opportunity
So far, Putin Ankara has denied its support for the planned security zone. The Russian government in the coming negotiations, especially the so-called Adana agreement. The contract was completed in 1998 and regulates the prohibition of PKK activities in Syria. It allows the Turkey, up to 15 kilometers in Syrian territory, in order to eliminate terrorist threats. Part of the “Operation peace source”, the 9 was. October began with the agreement to be justified. The security zone that is now planned, would exceed 15 kilometers, however, what contains the potential for conflict with the Syrian government. A possible confrontation with Damascus could then draw Russia into a bloody conflict – is a horror scenario for all the parties to the conflict.