Iran is the winner in the poker game in the middle East?


Syria, Yemen, the Strait of Hormuz In the Middle East the balance of power is shifting. Iran has made changes tactically to their advantage. It could be power to the new leadership of the Region.

Of military service to the USA are deducted from the North of Syria, but diplomatically they are still present. After talks with US Vice-President Mike Pence, the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, agreed to a five-day ceasefire in the Region. The Kurdish militias of the expansion have a different idea than the Cabinet of Ministers in Ankara. But the agreement is driven largely by the Americans.

It is unclear whether the ceasefire is holding. Open is also whether the White house understands the Mission of the Vice – President as a start to a new Engagement, or, on the contrary, as the last occurs, to allow the withdrawal of the USA from Syria, at least not as hastily appearance. But it is certain that the United States have reduced their commitment in a way that has long since triggered a chain reaction, in the course of new alliances and political centres of power are emerging. And no country in the Region shows clearly how Iran has the will to take advantage of these opportunities.

New Self-Confidence

After on 14. September rocket had hit a Saudi oil refinery in Abkaik, were Saudis and Americans Iran responsible for the attack. The denied the accusation while, but could not dispel the doubts of his critics. A non-sun but on the Hand, the Israeli newspaper “Haaretz”: If the government in Tehran, out ordered the attack, then out of a sense of enormous self-confidence: “Iran attacked Saudi Arabia, not only because it has a new policy, or new weapons, but because it saw that Trump would make his allies no serious assistance.”

Hug: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the leader of Iran, Ayatollah Khamenei in February 2019

The easing of the Saudi-American military Alliance is suggested for a Long time. In the Gulf region, skillful US fleet would behave so calm, seemed to be in Tehran, apparently in sight. Very carefully, you had registered that the murder of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi, as well as the war in Yemen, have cost the Kingdom in the American Congress a massive sympathies.

No concept for Syria

With a sharp eye, Iran is pursuing the American weaknesses in Syria. From the point of view of Tehran, it is obvious: The USA is in the war-torn country is not a clear concept. You expect too much. The US government wanted to overthrow then-under Barack Obama – President Bashar al-Assad. At the same time, they wanted to defeat the terrorist organization “Islamic state” and other jihadist groups. And as a long-term objective is hovered Washington, at least in the approach to democratised Syria.

However, it is overlooked in the White house, that a large number of these jihadists schmorten in the dungeons of the Assad regime. As the uprising of 2011 threatened to be overpowering, opened the Syrian President the doors of this dungeon, and brought the United States to focus primarily on the fight against the jihadists.

Shrewd tactician: Qassem Soleimani, the troops commander of the Iranian Al-Qods , Tehran, 2016

This is a totally different Iran was. “If Russia and Iran as the winner, look so, because they tracked from the beginning to a smarter strategy,” the Washington-based magazine “Foreign Policy”. “Russia and Iran were holding from the outset, a clear, limited and manageable goal: Assad in Power.”

The limitation proved to be useful: Assad is still in office. And Russia and Iran are an integral part in Iran’s present and until further notice – also and especially as a mostly invisible political actors at the presidential Palace of Damascus.

Decision-making power in Damascus

There you have a say in the decisions that have to Europe, as a massive impact. How is Assad with the Syrian population? Whom he leaves alone, whom he harassed? How is he? about against the Kurds behavior, which had turned with the request to protect against Turkey to him He is thoughtful with you, or you, occupied over the years, the Northern parts of the country, his hardness felt?

Country at the bottom: scene from Aleppo, 2016

Questions such as these, the decision to flee to Europe, decides for hundreds of thousands. And over these questions will at least help decide, in part, the Regime in Tehran.

Although Iran as a protective power in Syria is likely to be only partially welcome. On the other hand, he is the driving force in the demonization of Israel – a campaign, the likely al-Assad should go. The propagated hatred of the Jewish state has been proven over decades as a reliable tool to close the ranks and to weld together.

The call for dialogue

On the basis of this military strength can afford to have Iran with friendly relations with its neighbors in the Region. “We want to be friends with all countries in the Region”, – quoted a few days ago, the Iranian news Agency SHANA, Bijan Zangane, the Minister of oil of the country. “Our enemy is outside of the Middle East.”

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Iran against United States: Trump in the terminal?

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Iran against United States: Trump in the terminal?

Coined the the USA is. Although likely to be the least Arab States, such an extreme view. But their governments are likely to think since a few weeks and months about whether or not your part of good relations to the USA in the future. You have come to the conclusion that this is not or only partly the case, however, should you find a new direction. Iran would be ready as a possible contact person.