Guest comments: Northern Syria – winners and losers

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The North of Syria-Offensive of the Turkey, and the US-zig-zag course to ensure that the situation will change in the Region – not only in the contested area, but in the whole of the middle East, writes Rainer Hermann of the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

Syrian soldiers in the border town of Kobane

To right glad the Turkish lured foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu about the agreement on Thursday night, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and US Vice-President Mike Pence in Ankara had agreed. Turkey got what she wanted, said Cavusoglu. For the first time, the United States agreed to the Turkish demand for a 32-Kilometer-deep security zone along the border with Syria. The United States pledged that the Kurdish YPG militia, so to speak, Washington’s ground troops in the fight against the IS, from the Zone pull. An agreement was also reached that, in this Zone, Syrian refugees are to be settled from Turkey.

The clear winner of this deal is the Turkey. What she has achieved on the political parquet floors, reached by the Offensive, the you on 9. October in Northern Syria has begun, and to finish the Pence to Ankara came. Turkey has recognized, where the weaknesses of the US President, Donald Trump, and their commitment was rewarded. So the Turkish army stays where you stand on Thursday evening. At any time you can advance further. The Kurdish YPG militias to however, 32 kilometres back. You will not be doing. The ceasefire, which is only carried on five days, will not keep, therefore. This is the first risk.

Assad as the last straw

A second winner is the Syrian Regime. With the American double error – first, the withdrawal of all American soldiers from Northern Syria to announce, then, in all the points of giving in to Turkey – has ruler Bashar al-Assad now almost the whole of Syria under control; to the rebel province of Idlib and the areas controlled by Turkey. And, without firing a shot. Because the Kurds are grasping for the last straw and brought the Damascus Regime, to help. This is the second risk. For now, it may come to military conflict between the NATO-country Turkey and the Syrian army, behind Russia. NATO has already indicated that in this case the Alliance would occur.

Rainer Hermann is a contributing editor at the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung” (FAZ)

Iran is the third winner. Since the Revolution of 1979, the withdrawal of the USA from the Middle East is one of the most important demands of the Mullah regime in Tehran. Ironically, President Trump, who was taken to Iran in the barriers, the Islamic Republic of this desire. Of deduction and loss of importance is gradual and appears to be irreversible. So the Pax Americana in the Middle East will be replaced by the domination of Iran, which is preparing to become the new hegemonic power. This poses a third risk: If America, the “great Satan” is no longer the primary enemy, is Israel the “little Satan”, into the visor. With the Iran-allied Shi’ite Hezbollah has in its Arsenal of 130,000 missiles aimed at Israel.

Putin’s instinct is safe

Not conceivable the winner of Turkey, Syria and Iran without Russia would be. The power shifts in the Middle East Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hands. With the unerring instinct of the rulers in the Kremlin uses every Chance he gets, and fills up every vacuum, the other out of stupidity. It pays to invade other countries (see Ukraine) to barrel bombs on civilians (see Syria), the peaceful Opposition to the press (as in Russia). The school should make, it would be a risk far beyond the Middle East.

The most dangerous winner, however, is the “Islamic state” that can organize themselves in the throes of this conflict. Proof of this is the recent suicide bombings in the Kurdish cities of Syria. There were only a few Hundred of their fighters from prison in the embattled Syrian North to escape, the Terror would be back.

Five winners, many losers

The five winners, many losers are. The first is the United States, their credibility disappears in an unimaginable pace. Last updated a month ago, after the attack on the world’s largest oil processing plant in Saudi Arabia behind Iran or Iranian allies were. The United States backed away after that, before a retaliation. Now they are committing for the third Time after 1975 and the 1991 betrayal of the Kurds. The Kurds will not think that you can trust in the USA. After all, who needs an ally that he can rely on?

The losers are the two leadership of the Arab world, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the approach already in Iran and their relations with Russia, expand made. That weakens the Arab world, it is in disarray, leaving even more of themselves. In this environment, the protests against the seemingly stable Arab Regimes to take again. The protests, which had begun in 2011 and continue today. This is to be welcomed, however, leads to a further destabilization whose consequences would be felt in Europe.

And what is Europe doing? It’s like in the debates on arms export bans, as if European weapons played in this Region. And it will be abdicating its responsibility for its neighborhood. The conflicts and crises of the Middle East meet Europe first of all.