Brexit – again, Nothing!

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On Wednesday evening, the Ambassador to the EU actually had a Brexit Deal cobbled together, but then the British pulled the ripcord. In principle, however, there is a Text, which the EU could agree to.

The EU negotiator, Michel Barnier, during the night-time Brexit-session in Brussels on Wednesday

In the end, the tension increased almost immeasurably. Observers in Brussels had experienced since the beginning of the Brexit negotiations at the weekend, in the so-called Tunnel, a strange mix of emotions. At the end of the air was out and it was a reaction to the sudden cancellation: Oh, great.

It is what it is

While the robbten negotiator slowly and persistently through the rough terrain of the Brexit-compromises forward, entered information only in Bruck pieces to the press. Conversations in the Tunnel means that there is no Press briefings, no opinions or explanations. Actually, you know nothing – except that bit by bit, drip of information from the diplomats interested in the page as a Permanent outside “leaked” to be.

So it seemed on Sunday evening, as if both sides apart far, seemed to be on a Sunday evening and on Tuesday almost euphoric optimism broke out finally, in the case of the observers: An agreement seemed near enough to touch. Then the details were lacking but again, still in the writers of the TV series, it’s called a Cliffhanger.

Early on the evening of Wednesday, Angela Merkel, and Emmanuel Macron gave Toulouse a press conference on to other topics, but the President said to the Brexit: “I think a Deal will be formulated and that we can confirm it tomorrow.” While the German Chancellor, in her own Form of understatement, said, “worse news could come from Brussels”.

In between, it went well for the British Brexit-Secretary Stephen Barclay and the EU chief negotiator, Michel Barnier

The time is not enough

Shortly thereafter, under the EU chief informed traders, Michel Barnier, the ambassadors of the 27 other member countries on the status of the talks. The list of contentious points between the two sides was largely resolved, as it was called. For all questions, you have found solutions except for the treatment of future Differences in VAT in Northern Ireland and the British mainland. What is, however, only another technical Problem meanwhile, further negotiations are held.

Difficulties, however, made the ambassadors to the fact that on Wednesday evening still no legal text of the Treaty existed. You would need to overnight in their capitals to send, so that the heads of government had at least a few hours of your time to read the draft contract before the start of the summit and to discuss at home. The British Premier had postponed his concessions to the EU so long, that was the time for the 27 other complete the Deal.

What does it say?

The details of the possible agreement are not yet known. However, you know about the rough framework that the Problem of the Irish border through an intellectual contortion to be solved. Northern Ireland would get out, then with Britain out of the EU customs Union – that is essential in order to get Boris Johnson to his Brexiteers on Board. But that’s true only on paper. In fact, the province would remain under EU rules, so that the dreaded hard border with the Republic of Ireland can be avoided.

The external border of the EU would accordingly run somewhere in the Irish sea fictional, and the necessary customs and other border controls would have to take place in British and Northern Irish ports. The implementation is complicated because the EU does not have to agree with the British, only the implementation of the controls, it goes to the forwarding of funds action instances in the case of a dispute, and much more.

In principle, this is the return of the old Backstop, the reinsurance only for Northern Ireland, the proposed EU in the very beginning of the negotiations with Theresa May had. In the course of the talks the British side closer to the demands of the EU for this purpose, always more. It’s just a nice new Name for this solution would have to be found.

It was also resolved the dispute over the democratic consent of the representatives of the people in Northern Ireland. The EU is reached, that the unionist DUP should have no right of veto and more. The rest of the 500 plus pages in the exit contract of the old version, which is available since November of 2018 come from. Only the Chapter was negotiated across the Irish border.

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Fear of Brexit in Ireland

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Fear of Brexit in Ireland

Where is now the Problem?

The Problem lies in London. The EU heads of government demand that the British Prime Minister, that he can present at the summit in Brussels on Thursday with the necessary support in Parliament to bring the Deal through. You do not want to experience once again a debacle like its predecessor, where the contract fell three times during the vote in the lower house.

But Boris Johnson makes trouble. Since Monday he is negotiating with the Northern Irish DUP, which refused to the last. Rumour has it, that would leave you with large sums of money to buy, but until recently, this remained unconfirmed. If the DUP says no, then the hard Brexiteers could be stubborn. From their ranks last conciliatory tones were come. And finally, it is not the head of the government, still, the 20 or so Tory rebels to get back into the boat, the one vote defeat was brought to him of September and fly out of the party. Also from the Labour party only a smaller number of Defectors is expected to be officially the party leadership to the “Tory-Brexit has issued” a cancellation. In short, Boris Johnson has not gathered the 50-60 votes he needs, except his party loyalists for a majority.

Apart from that, is completely open, what could be the try under the house on Saturday at its special session, to Boris Johnson’s plans. At the moment it looks as if there is no way past it that he is asking the EU for an extension. Then he has to clarify the fact away that he is his great oaths of Brexit on the 31. October – life-and-death – is unable to comply with. But that should fall to the Prime still most easily.