Israel and the new middle East

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The military action of Turkey in Northern Syria threatens to revolutionize the geopolitical order of the whole of the Middle East. Of Israel would be affected. The Jewish state is facing new challenges.

What had actually done the Trump for Israel, as he is first of all Jerusalem as the capital of the Jewish state and then, in March of this year, the Golan heights as Israeli territory recognized? Probably not too much, hinting to the former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert at the weekend in an Interview with the newspaper “Jerusalem Post”.

“It is a pure Declaration without substance. The Golan heights were annexed in December 1981, 38 years ago,” said Olmert. Trumps Declaration was only triggered an even more violent controversy over the Golan heights – and to the attention of the world at a time when hardly anyone else spoke.

Trump’s strategy was to reduce the American commitment outside of the USA: “Why should we be so surprised about the backing down from Syria?” The consequences of the recent twists and turns of US policy, there is more, however, no doubt, Olmert, The Israelis would have to rely on themselves.

Disillusionment with Trump

So sober Olmert’s analysis, so it reflects in Israel currently, the widespread feeling of disillusionment and concern in the face of President Trumps politics in the middle East, since a few days, in addition, sparked by the withdrawal of US troops from Northern Syria.

Invasion with consequences: smoke over the Syrian town of Ras al-Ain

“The government Trump has made a serious and careless mistake that unleashed the forces of hell in the Middle East and, most likely, in addition, and for hundreds of thousands of destruction and displacement brings,” reads the conservative newspaper “The Times of Israel”.

The left-liberal newspaper Haaret divides the analysis, without a swipe at the conservative political scene of the country resist. “In light of the recent setback, it is almost amusing to see the dwindling number of Trump supporters in the media, the need for some rhetorical tricks to justify the actions of the alleged Israel-lover in the White house.”

Confrontation with Iran

For Israel, the withdrawal of the USA from the North of Syria at an inopportune time comes. For years, the country of the challenge faced by Iran. The government in Tehran has used its commitment on the side of Bashar al-Assad in Syria war, consistently with the presence of iran to expand. The Iranian elite troops, the al-Quds brigades, are now as close as never before to the Israeli borders.

Demonstration against Israel: scene from the so-called Al-Quds day in Iran, October 2007

You would have to stand there? No, says Ehud Olmert, in an Interview with the “Jerusalem Post”. Israel should not have been allowed to attack the troops, as they are already in Syria were, but in the Moment you crossed the border there. That would have made clear from the beginning, what price would you pay for her to Move on.

Now, however, the Iranians are in Syria and are not likely to be distribute from there too easily. Especially the Israelis would have to do with the idea that they were faced with the Iran henceforth, probably alone, writes the political Analyst Eyal Tsir Cohen from the Think Tank “Brookings Institution” in Washington. So far they had been able to rely on the US as an unconditional ally. This assumption should reconsider the political decision-makers in Jerusalem in the face of the US withdrawal from Kurdistan once again.

Relationship to the Arab States

Also, the previous System of partnerships with Arab countries standing on the bench, so Cohen. The still relatively new, close to Israel, to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which has emerged in the confrontation with Iran, it could be for the Arab side in sight is less important. On the alleged Iranian attacks on Saudi oil Fields the US would have reacted comparatively restrained.

New Saudi-Iranian communication channel? The Strait of Hormuz

This could be for Saudi Arabia on the occasion, about the relationship to the protection of the USA think. This could also mean that the government in Riyadh, with Iran not only on military strength, but also on diplomacy. But then, the necessity is eliminated to take into account Israel, says Cohen. On the contrary, Saudi Arabia is the new proximity to Iran could be documented also by the new distance to Israel.

The new influence of Iran in the Region is expected to be expanded to include Russia. So far, the Kurds in the fight against the Turkish military operation, have turned alone to the Syrian army. The face whose relative military weakness could you ask for but also to the Russians for protection – a request that should the government in Moscow, keyword: Oil reserves in Northern Syria, tax to pay. Politically and economically, Russia was sitting in the North of the country in the saddle and could also post the there made U.S. investment as a free carry-on effect.

For Israel the question of the extent to which it makes with Russia, as a total of Syrian protection in the confrontation with Iran will arrange. Although Russia is likely to enclosing the Iran. At the same time, but it is likely to prevent Israel, at least in Parts of it, to defend themselves. The Highness of the relative strength of the two opponents would be in Moscow – a fact that is likely to appreciate the Russian government in the Region.

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Idlib – a ticking time bomb

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The Syrian province of Idlib – a ticking time bomb

A bad Omen?

Open is, like the other Arab States in the new constellation will react. On Monday of this week, the speaker of the Jordanian Parliament and President of the Arab inter-parliamentary Union (APU), Atef Tarawneh, according to a report from the state Jordanian news Agency “Petra called the” parliaments around the world, for an end to the Israeli occupation and its “brutal practices” in the Palestinian territories.

Such a request from the Jordanian side is unusual – for years, the A. Hashimi tables UK, as a reliable peace partner for Israel. The timing of the call could be a coincidence or a taste of upcoming challenges.