The Brexit-negotiators in Brussels at this weekend intensive technical talks on a new British proposal to solve the Northern Ireland problem. From London, Barbara Wesel.
The chief negotiator of the EU in his spare time likes to mountain climbing. In this respect, Michel Barnier, the comparison with the Brexit talks in Brussels was close to – you need both attention, determination, and patience. After Thursday, a Meeting between the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Irish colleague, Leo Varadkar, suddenly, optimism, and the outline for a possible Deal had produced, saw Barnier on Friday finally enough reason to send the negotiating team this weekend in the “Tunnel”. Thus shielded, the intensive negotiations on the technical details of which are strictly meant to be, with little sleep and a lot of fast food.
A new UK offer
It is the first Time since the appointment of Boris Johnson that the European side takes a proposal from London seriously enough to deal with the legal and technical details of an agreement on this Basis, more intensive. “We see a path to an agreement” has Varadkar declared after conversation with the British Prime Minister in a wedding hotel near Liverpool almost amazed. Apparently Boris Johnson had brought enough gifts.
Path for integration? Boris Johnson and Leo Varadkar talking about a solution
This approach involves a new creative approach to the Northern Ireland problem. Then there would be no customs border on the island of Ireland, an absolute condition of EU. Instead, they would be transferred into the Irish sea, but would also be only imaginary. With a complicated System, which might be similar to a VAT compensation function, would be left in Northern Ireland on the one hand, in the customs regime of the EU, but on the other hand, of cheaper UK Tariffs in the future can benefit.
Or, as Boris Johnson said in an Interview: “the whole of The United Kingdom will be able to benefit from the advantages of Brexit.” Whether it will ever be, is open, but it is a matter of political principle, according to which Northern Ireland is not treated differently than the UK as a whole. That is an absolute requirement of the unionists from the Northern Irish DUP, recall the Premier, in a careful opinion of the new bargaining situation once again.
The Prime Minister, in turn, the twice-asked question is not answered on Friday in an Interview, whether Northern Ireland will leave the EU customs Union. This suggests that, in the direction of a double-witchcraft in the customs procedure, a possible compromise may be. Also in the case of the second critical question, namely, the political participation of the representatives of the people in Northern Ireland, there seems to be a solution. In any case, London is probably not ready to waive a de facto Veto to the DUP and is a regular renewal of their consent to the relationship with the EU. To make the unionists regularly for blackmail, held in Brussels intolerable.
Theresa Mays Deal under a different name?
This confirms what was Outlined by the British proposal is known, would appear essential elements of the old outlet contract of Theresa May, the Parliament – the DUP and their own hardline Tories – in the Winter three times had rejected. At the same time Boris Johnson would return to the original proposal of the EU, namely a variant of the specific Backstop for Northern Ireland, to a fall-back position in order to avoid any demarcation on the Irish island.
Should prevail in London and the realization that labelling is really old wine in new bottles or a, could tear apart the hard Brexiteers in the case of the DUP, the Tories, the Brexit Party and the supporting mass media Boris Johnson’s compromise offer in the air. Anyway, his chances to get the Deal through Parliament-should be regarded as doubtful.
Boris Johnson looks forward. But what is to come?
At the same time, Johnson could hardly hope that more votes of the Labour Opposition to recruit as the five members who had recently agreed, under Theresa May the course. Jeremy Corbyn seems now to strong intra-party pressure switch on a second Referendum, the then new elections are to follow. Already at the special session of the lower house on Saturday after the Brussels EU summit to be voted on.
How good are the odds?
The opportunities are certainly better than last Wednesday, the conservative Website “Politics Home quoted” a government source, but there is a lot of individual would have to come from “parts together and it can go much wrong”. The atmosphere in London seems best, therefore, braked optimistic.
In addition, time is working against Boris Johnson. To transform the intricate Details within two days this weekend, in legal formulas, and a signature tire Deal, so that in due time the Ambassador to the EU, all 27 major cities and next Thursday, the heads of government agree to that could, it seems practically out of the question. It should be in any case at least a technical extension. But Boris Johnson could not fulfil its Central promise, at any price on the 31. October withdraw from the EU, to provide the Brexit””.
Will there be an agreement? No one knows it.
That weakens his political Position for upcoming elections, it’s Brexit-party voters and gives the Opposition time to prevent first of all, a hard Brexit and then a second Referendum to seek. Against the No-deal-Brexit, the Parliament had adopted a law, which most now believe that Johnson will follow.
Even if there is, therefore, in the negotiations in Brussels, meanwhile, a glimmer of hope – nothing is certain, and failure is still more likely than a quick deal. Some EU diplomats doubt also continue to believe that Boris Johnson really wants to exit the contract, other trust in the UK negotiating or are you afraid of the infamous Black-Peter is missing-game with the debt assignment. In any case, the series “Britain’s difficult divorce from Europe” remains exciting until the last meters.