Power shifts in the middle East

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The invasion of Turkish troops in Syria, is criticized by Arab governments sharply. The Turkey takes care of the little. She has launched a movement that could shift the forces in the Region.

Attacks by Turkish jet fighters on villages along the Turkish border, thousands of people on the escape: The military operation of Turkey in North of Syria has begun. Air force and artillery had scored 181 goals of the Kurdish “people’s protection units” (YPG), said the Turkish Ministry of defense via Twitter. Vice-President Fuat Oktay expressed satisfaction over the military operation. You the course according to Plan.

The Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan had declared that he wanted to wipe out the Kurdish-populated territory as a “terrorist corridor” at the southern border of Turkey and there is peace. That he succeeds is regarded by many observers as dubious.

“The Turkish military operation will have an impact on the stability of the entire Middle East and the political Situation at the local and regional level”, says the Lebanese military expert Nizar Abdelkader in the DW-Interview. The Operation will suffering and misery result. “The crisis in Syria is even more complicated, and the attempt to find a political solution, will hardly be possible.”

In the fight against “terror corridor”: the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan

A invasion and a lot of losers

The effects of the Operation are difficult to predict, it is called in the British Online newspaper “Elaph”. The Kurds were not the only losers of the Operation. On the contrary, this could put the success of the international Anti-terrorist struggle a severe blow: in the Kurdish areas of imprisoned fighters of the terrorist organization “Islamic state” (IS) could use the Chaos to break out and spread throughout the Region.

The Invasion of a shame but also of Turkey, as the government of the population impose an “endless war” against the Kurds, it is said in “Elaph” more. After the USA have equipped the Kurds with military and formed, the newspaper now has a long-lasting struggle. Could be for Turkey a kind of “Vietnam” – so you run in a grueling battle, you hardly can win.

First atmospheric effects of the Operation are showing already now. So Erdogan responded to harsh criticism of both the Egyptian and the Saudi government to the Turkish invasion, in turn, very sharp. To the address of the Cabinet of Abdel Fatah al-Sisi in Cairo turned, he said, Egypt had no right to criticize the Operation: The government have proved to be the “murderer” of democracy in their own country. And with a view on Saudi Arabia: “Who has brought Yemen into its present state?” He played on the Saudi Arabia international military led coalition, which is predominantly from the air, led the fight against the militants of the Houthis has plunged the country into a humanitarian disaster.

Realignment of the Turkey?

The statement documented how much Erdogan for his stance on the war in Yemen has changed. He welcomed the approach of the coalition, first of all, he turns against you. This could also be as a silent character in the direction of Iran, the enemy of Saudi Arabia, understand. This has criticized the Turkish Operation, having regard to the dangers for the civilian population also. In addition, Iran had a larger military manoeuvres on the border with Turkey. At the same time it was said out of Tehran but, we understand the Concerns of Turkey with regard to the security of their southern borders. Also in Iran, many Kurds live, without it has come to such a violent of the clashes in Turkey.

In battle: Turkish tanks in Northern Syria, 9.10.2019

The Kurdish party in Syria (PYD), the Iran-however, for another reason at a distance: “During the civil war in Syria, the PYD has become the tactical Partner of Tehran in the fight against the IS,” said the Turkish political scientist Gulriz Sen the politics of the Middle East involved in Internet-magazine, “Al-Monitor”. After the IS has been largely defeated, were initiated by the government in Tehran, the good relations with the Kurdish party to the US. “Therefore, it supports the reconciliation between the Syrian Kurds and the Assad Regime. In this way, it wants to expand its control over Syria and at the same time, the presence of the USA in Syria to weaken.”

The loss of the Arab States of the Gulf power?

As always, the axis Tehran-like to develop Ankara in the future: Those States that were committed to as the United Arab Emirates and especially Saudi Arabia so far, also in the war in Syria and against the Assad Regime, jihadists support, seem to have the Look. Their influence which is open to military active Turkey is not the same in the approach.

This applies all the more as the most important allies of the Kingdom, the USA, from the North of Syria have not completely, but to pulled back but many Parts. In many Parts of the Arab press, the withdrawal is seen as a betrayal of the Kurds in the fight against the IS a close Partner of America. “You could do the same with other partners”, – stated in the Arabic Online site “, Rai al-youm”. The reasons are obvious, and furthermore. Thus, the United States had, in the meantime, high oil production, they made imports from the middle East regardless. In addition, Washington would have to align his eye more on the ever-more powerful China. And, finally, the Americans would have had to recognize during the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, and missile attacks on Saudi conveyor systems that your defense weapons were as efficient as assumed. The weakness in addition. Trumps intention was clear: “He wants to sell his allies weapons – but not necessarily to defend.”

Impotent defence: burning refinery in Saudi Abqaig (archive)

Think about the future

Saudi Arabia has, therefore, a cause for concern? No, says the Saudi strategy-expert Hassan Dhafer Al-Shehri in an interview with DW. “The relations of the Kingdom to the United States are long and deep.” It is true that you are currently cooled in the approach. Predictable, you would normalize again. However, you don’t be concerned in Riyadh, Washington should move away from his Partner. “Because there are Alternatives: Moscow, Beijing and the European Union.”

Open is the ratio of the potential new allies will make. Is clear, however: The Think about new constellations in the Region has already begun.

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To the point – Erdogan’s Syria plan: Who pays the price?

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To the point – Erdogan’s Syria plan: Who pays the price?