Poland elects a new Parliament, the ruling PiS party under Jaroslaw Kaczynski has all the chances to remain in Power. And the Polish economy? The buzzing – no matter who governs. Really?
Warsaw and its Skyline
“It’s the economy, stupid!” Of due! The winged word congealed Slogan of Bill Clinton in 1992, according to which the economy is crucial to the electoral victories, this is not true for Poland. Or if, then only in a roundabout way. As Before, the conservative PiS, the party of “law and justice” came to Power, the economy grew in the country well above the EU Standard. And years later, before the parliamentary elections next weekend, it has to offer, Poland’s growth rates, which would make any west-European politicians in the joy of tumbling. Last year, the economy grew by 5.1 per cent for this year, the EU Commission presented an estimate of 4.4 percent.
“The PiS government has had in terms of economic situation, just lucky,” said the Economist Leszek Balcerowicz recently the “Neue Zürcher Zeitung” – is to say: you can, in fact, nothing to do with it. The judgment of the man like something to apply, he prescribed Poland in the bygone mid-nineties, years of economic shock therapy, which laid the foundations for the later success. In Good times and in Bad
.
Townspeople and Suspended
“The Good” count of doubt, rates of growth, building thriving businesses, the Expansion of the infrastructure, the change of some Polish city to European metropolis. The “Bad” belongs in Poland (as in other European countries), a growing division between rich and poor, between city and country. Prosperous, if not rich, were the townspeople, the people on the Land left behind felt (even if they look a much better place today than twenty years ago).
The income of poles in the cities increased between 2004 and 2016, 94 percent, of the increase in the country was even higher – but still only one in five rural residents, says that the wage is sufficient. Four-fifths think so, you don’t really have enough to live on, and in Poland, 15 million of the total of around 37 million inhabitants in the country.
European metropolis: the Cafe-Bar in Wroclaw
Full employment
There is also of little help that in the country a total of practically full employment: The unemployment rate is at 3.7 per cent; of the approximately 1.5 million immigrants from the Ukraine to ensure that free positions can be occupied. The wages to draw in any case, this is the way to neatly, and more Recently also with the private consumption.
But to be the feeling of many of the country’s residents (and some of the townspeople), suspended, changes only a little. And here is the PiS set up successfully: The conservative party’s policy of Redistribution operates with other signs, and the strong man in the country, PiS leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski speaks, in view of the previous governments, also quite candidly: “The truth is: The redistribution. What we do is social policy!” Thus, the “Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung quoted” recently, the choice of fighters Kaczynski.
This type of “social policy” has raised the standard of living of many ordinary poles: A Central component of the children’s money, “500+”, which was only paid for each child from the second Bud, and now for the first child to apply to was. 500 Zloty or the equivalent of about 115 Euro per child are in Poland, average income of 1000 euros a month is a lot of money.
“Election sausage”
Also, the PiS government took the recently raised retirement age back to 65 years back. For tenants without high income there is a state support programme “housing+”. With such programs, the PiS has made more campaign: For the Elderly it should be a 13. Month pension, for Younger the exemption from income tax of up to 26. Years of age. This includes funding support for farmers and investment in rail connections to the country.
Choice Fighter – PiS Leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski
The head of government Morawiecki expected that the average household income in Poland in the year 2030, the EU will have achieved the Standard; in 2014, it stood at 69 percent.
In view of the successes of the PiS, some of the doomsday predictions of the critics go unheard. It was said at the beginning, at the announcement of the child benefit, which would not cope with the Polish state, the government now has a balanced budget. All the new blessings that are mocked sausages in Poland as a “Choice”, is expected to cost, according to estimates, around 40 billion zlotys (i.e. about 10 billion euros). But at the same time acknowledge critics that the output of the programs to fan the consumer. And the revenues of the state have grown by more rigorous checks on the VAT of around 10 billion euros a year. Broke looks different.
This Ten-billion-sum corresponds to the way in about what Poland gets the net through the EU programmes, and in many cases uses – you can see it all over the country on new bridges or roads.
Propaganda and losers
And the losers? Around 100,000 women, you can read in the press, have passed from the labour market, the children’s allowance makes it possible. And the criticism of the high cost of redistribution by means of “election sausage” is not really silent: “they distribute other people’s money, in order to consolidate their Power,” warns Economist Balcerowicz. “Later, higher taxes and debt. For the PiS-distribution policy, someone will have to pay for it.”
The Economist Marcin Piatkowski of the world Bank, however, holds: “In the past four years, Poland has had the PiS continue to high growth, although the economy has not experienced in the Rest of Europe, just a Boom,” he said to the “mirror”. “Poland’s debt is lower than it was four years ago.”
But in the long run, because Piatkowski and Balcerowicz agreed, is not able to handle the country without increased investment from abroad – especially as the years are long past, as Poland is a kind of workbench for West European corporations was. Now, higher-quality growth, and the development of exports Poland is now promising (see chart). Now Packard in regions such as the area around Wroclaw companies such as Google, Bosch and Hewlett-active, Volkswagen has a major production plants in Poznan, Daimler building engines and now also batteries in Poland. For such investors, the international courted violently, could be the other side of the Power of the PiS to the Problem.
The right side of the PiS-Power – Demo on independence day
Like other populist forces in Europe, the right-wing party uses Propaganda against Muslims, homosexuals, the elites and EU politicians. Plus points for the image ads are not the. Yet the functioning of the image of the party as a defender of the little people. So far, the reconstruction of the judiciary in the country, according to the Gusto of the government seems to have a party or of the PiS access to the media, the power of expansion, used, to have as partners and investors from abroad sustainable quenched. Critics of the Balcerowicz look in the future: “the damage of The PiS policy is not yet visible. He is obscured by the Boom.”
(archive material)