Syria: The Invasion and the jihadists

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In Northern Syria, where Turkey wants to set up their “security zone”, are also camps and prisons in which organized jihadists are imprisoned. The could use the war to escape to Europe.

Preparing for invasion: a Turkish military vehicle on the border with Syria, 4.10.2019

The preparations are completed, the Offensive in Northern Syria is about to begin. It was informed by the Turkish Ministry of defence on Monday evening. Now it is about to install a so – called safety zone, according to the words of the Ministry essential step that will contribute to “peace and security” in the Region.

Through the safety zone they wanted to secure “Survival”, was quoted by the Turkish Anadolu news Agency, the spokesman of the Turkish foreign Ministry, Hami Aksoy. “This is the way a serious threat to the territorial integrity and unity of Syria, is repealed. In addition, the Foundation is designed to prevent a return of the terrorists of the ‘Islamic state’ and similar problems in the future.”

In the safety zone Turkey wants to settle around two million currently living in Turkey, Syrian refugees. At the same time, she wants to end the Kurdish self-administration in Northern Syria.

Risks of the Invasion

However, the plans rise is anything other than safe. Abdel Bari Atwan, editor-in-chief of the newspaper “Rai al-youm,” said on Monday that Turkey through the Invasion of the four large risks. So you have to do it with a well-trained and equipped enemy that had been supplied by the US with weapons and trained. In addition, the Turkey can see a resettlement of the refugees, as well as the control and supply of the occupied territories enormous financial strain. It is also not excluded, that will eventually turn on the Syrian army in the fighting. In addition, Turkey also assume the responsibility for the Kurdish prison camp, where thousands of fighters of the “Islamic state” (IS) were staying in Atwans words: “a ticking time bomb.”

The question of how the imprisoned jihadis in the case of an Invasion could behaviour, the German foreign policy. “One of the biggest dangers is the fact that IS-prisoners from Northern Syria to settle in Iraq”, says Roderich Kiesewetter (CDU), member of the foreign Affairs Committee of the German Bundestag. “This affects our security interests directly and helps the country not in the urgent stabilization. Although our influence on the development here is limited, I am convinced that the Federal government is doing everything it can to find an American-Turkish solution to the detainee issue.”

In addition, in Europe, could try to jihadists in their home countries to return to. In and in the vicinity of the Invasion intended area, there are three such bearings, in which IS members are. The largest of them, al-Hol, is located outside the invasion zone, but it could be from the Fighting also affected. Turkey face, could decide the Kurds, also a part of the guards from the Camps to be deducted, says the Arabistin Claudia Dantschke, head of the de-radicalisation counselling centre “Hayat”.

Recruitment territory to the jihadists: the camp, Al-Hol

Jihadists could escape

What will happen if the Camps are less guards present would be hard to anticipate, so Dantschke. It is conceivable that expanding the fighting to the camp. Their occupants could take advantage of the Situation to try to escape from the Camps, and to fight against the Kurds or dive. It could be assumed that the aid organizations would not reach the two smaller camp of Ain Issa and Roj, since they are in the war zone. The camp in Al-Hol would enter the employees in the case of an Invasion, more suspects Dantschke, Where the security situation is likely to be after the Invasion, completely insufficient.

Just in the camp, Al-Hol, there is still a cells of IS women, who wanted to revive in the camp of the Islamist Caliphate again. “The will, of course, take their Chance and in the Interior of the bearing to be active. This could be a revolt, an escape attempt or an act of sabotage – you don’t know it yet.”

To come to the Camps and the prisons. They are all located in the planned protection zone. “In them the male IS detained fighters. Among them high-ranking persons, people who have made it in the IS really a career, but fortunately in prison are part of it.”

The Turkish government fighters on dealing with the IS sufficiently prepared, doubts Dantschke. For you other issues are not important. For security interests would be with a view to the Kurdish militias, as well as the relocation of the currently living in Turkey, Syrian refugees in the foreground. “These are the dominant themes. The theme IS-families not in the Turkish media at all.”

Protest: a Demonstration of Kurdish women against the planned Invasion of Turkey in Northern Syria, 7. 10.2019

Of The Loss Of Control Threat

With a view to the Invasion comment: Turkey, Europe, and Syria – power politics on the backs of refugees, it is becoming harder and harder to get in the Camps and prisons of the prisoners back to Germany or other European countries, says Dantschke. This would be a way to control the people. “In Germany, the security authorities, in addition to the supervisors, of course, involved. You know every individual case.” It was otherwise, however, if the prisoners entkämen in the turmoil of the war and on their own back to Europe would entail. “That would be a huge risk.”

Because it IS like to be beaten militarily to a large extent, but his ideology-he is more widespread. “The IS adapts, it is consolidated, and creates conditions that lead to a possible uprising in the Iraqi and Syrian nuclear country”, – stated in a June 2019 published study by the United Nations. As a key field for Recruitment, those prison camps are in this respect in the Kurdish areas in Turkey, now wants to invade. The precarious conditions there were ideal to keep the ideology of the IS under the jihadis detained at the life, and to recruit new members.

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The possibilities of the Reintegration

The fresh recruits as also to the older fighters could now try to come to Europe. So you would lose any control over them. It was otherwise when the people were brought by the European authorities in their home countries.

Among them are also people who have not broken with the IS ideology, were although Dantschke says. “In these cases, the work will not be easy. Nevertheless, we think that we can work with them. We assume that you have a close network of integrate back into society.”