Iran and its strategy of escalation

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Tehran claims to have to do with the drone attack against Saudi Arabia’s nothing. Observers, however, see a clear strategy of Iran: increase of the own pressure against Trumps “maximum pressure”.

Iran put “certainly” behind the attacks on the Oil installations in Saudi Arabia, the government announced in Riyadh on Wednesday evening. Studies had shown that the missiles can’t be from Yemen, in the southwest of been fired, but from the North came. The US had already made at the weekend of Iran responsible for the attacks. There is clear evidence of Iran’s authorship have not yet been submitted however.

To had known of the attack, the reduced the Saudi Oil production temporarily to the half of the population with the Iran-allied Houthi rebels from Yemen, the to be fought for over four years, the Saudi air force, with many Victims among the civilian.

Wreckage of the drones, which come, according to Saudi Ministry of defence from Iran and the recent attack have been used.

“Tehran wants to demonstrate to US borders”

In an official Letter to the United States, the Iranian has dismissed the foreign Ministry, any participation in the attacks on Saudi Oil installations. “Iran has to do with the attack, nothing,” reads the letter, which was sent to the USA via the Swiss Embassy in Tehran the course. Represents Switzerland in Iran, the diplomatic interests of the United States. “Case against Iran (should be carried out military)action, we will return it immediately and the dimensions would not be limited,” reads the Letter further.

“The strategy of Iran is this: If Iran military is attacked, the entire Region in a far-reaching war. Tehran wants to raise the cost of the conflict between the United States and its allies on the one hand and Iran on the other hand, in the height,” says Farzaneh Roostaei in an interview with DW. The journalist and expert on military issues in the Gulf region believes that Iran is “nothing” to do with the attack on the Saudi Oil installations to. “The suspicion is that Iran is trying to use the Houthis or any other Shiite militia and the United States show their limitations”.

The United States dropped out in may 2018 on one side of the international nuclear agreement and have imposed in the course of its strategy of “maximum pressure” a flood of comprehensive sanctions against the country. The US President wants to force the claims to Iran in order to create a new, comprehensive agreement, which should also include Iran’s regional policy and its missile program.

Iranian leadership rejects all accusations

“Saudi Arabia disgraced”

Saudi Arabia, the most important U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf and Iran’s arch-rival, supported the U.S. policy. At the same time between Saudi Arabia and Iran is a dangerous power struggle for supremacy in the Middle East. While Iran is able to import because of the Resolution 2231 of the UN security Council by 2015, no weapons, is part of Saudi Arabia to the countries with the highest military expenditure in the world.

“Saudi Arabia is the main buyer of American weapons. Ten percent of all US arms exports go to Saudi Arabia,” explains middle East expert Michael Lüders in the DW-Interview. “Nevertheless, a few relatively simple drones to bring the Central parts of the oil-producing industry to a Standstill. It was a tremendous embarrassment for Saudi Arabia,” says Lüders.

Saudi Arabia’s crown Prince and defence Minister Mohammed bin Salman described the drone attack as a “Test of the will of the international community to respond to such acts, the international security and stability at risk”. US President, Trump announced that he was going to reinforce the sanctions against Iran are “significant”.

US Secretary of state Pompeo calls the attack on Saudi facilities, “act of war”

Iran under pressure – also from the inside

Iran is already under tremendous pressure by the US sanctions. The country has experienced almost every day, new protests are beaten by the security forces brutally low, so like on Monday in the Western Iranian Arak. There, hundreds of workers had protested the Heavy Equipment Production Company (HEPCO), because they have received since June, any more a reward. The largest heavy machinery manufacturers in the Middle East is on the verge of Bankruptcy.

The growing pressure from the outside and from the inside has to follow. “Iran, with its strategic patience,” analyzes Ellie Geranmayeh, Iran expert from the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR). First, Iran had hoped that the Europeans and Chinese would prepare for him a kind of economic package. So Iran could have the next elections in the United States and one winner from the camp of the Democrats, hope to wait for, says Geranmayeh.

However, the lack of Oil revenues and the total slip at the end of the economic situation had made this Plan obsolete. As a response, Iran had violated first, in well-measured steps of its obligations under the nuclear agreement. Now, suspected Geranmayeh, to build the Iran regional level, and pressure.

Iran’s foreign Minister Zarif: Saudis and other allies “to push Trump into the war.”

Iran’s Priority: Oil Revenues

Even if so, it is still unclear to what extent Iran was actually behind the attacks, its military possibilities and the power of his asymmetric warfare have become as well as the Vulnerability of the global energy supply. Thus, Iran is in the focus of the world community. And he seems to be willing to do anything to stay there until his primary goal is achieved: the lifting of the American oil embargo.