The Outlook for the German economy: The Ifo business climate index is at its lowest level since November 2012. For the most important German economic barometer, it is the fifth decrease in a row.
The business climate index is professionals as a reliable proxy for future economic growth in the German economy. He is collected by the Ifo-Institute for economic research in Munich, and its chief Clemens Fuest summarizes the current results for the month of August, thus: “The signs of a recession in Germany, condense.”
The Barometer for the business climate fell by 1.5 to 94.3 points. For the Index, the Institute month-to-month, surveyed 9,000 managers. The managers are not judged only their current business situation as poor. Also the prospects for the coming six months are more skeptical seen.
The mood cooled, both in industry as well as among the service providers, in Commerce and in the construction industry. “The industry is already in a recession,” says Ifo-expert Klaus Wohlrabe to Reuters. “The service provider has now been decided, in particular, the business-related. The area of Transport and logistics for instance, feels that the industry lack of orders.”
Downhill in the summer?
The gross domestic product had contracted in the spring by 0.1 percent. In the summer of the second quarter in a row, downhill, speak to economists, a recession. The Bundesbank thinks it’s possible. “The German economy is expected to remain also in the summer of 2019 lacklustre”, according to the latest monthly report.
Every month, the Institute surveyed 9,000
Economic experts make especially the weak global economy responsible. “The steadily escalating trade dispute, the increasing risk of a uncontrolled hard Brexits, and now the government crisis in Italy are too much for the strong shoulders of the German industry,” said DekaBank Economist Andreas Scheuerle.
“As bitter as it sounds, the export dependence of the German economy is currently the boomerang,” commented the chief economist of VP Bank, Thomas Gitzel, the most recent Figures. “The Federal government would do well to invest now in the infrastructure strong.” Also, the prospects are scary, so Gitzel: “The famous silver missing lining on the horizon, unfortunately.”
ar/bea (dpa, rtr)