Comment: A slump in the economy as a warning signal


It is what it is: The German economy is still in the crawling speed on the road. Activism doesn’t help now, but just a clever Act. From politics and business, says Henrik Böhme.

You can talk to the state of an economy is also bad. Therefore, all afraid to take the bad word out of recession in the mouth. But it also brings nothing to the truth not see. In the German manufacturing industry – an important pillar of the German economy is already in recession. More and more companies want to reduce their production in the coming months, the naysayers gain the upper hand over the optimists. There are many reasons for this, and also know all the trade conflicts, especially, but also the crisis and the process of transformation of the global auto industry, which is also the louder of the Chinese sabre-rattling is always more likely to become No-Deal-Brexit, more recently, in the direction of Hong Kong. An explosive mixture.

Therefore, this number, which was today reported by the Federal statisticians in Wiesbaden is 0.1 percent less economic output in the second quarter than in the first three months of the year – anything other than a Surprise. Of course, it is also true that it is in the current quarter, not better, then the next Minus and then it will be called: The German economy is, so to speak, officially, in recession. The thought of economist time at some point; after two Negative quarters in a row, they speak of a “technical recession.”

Henrik Böhme, DW-business editorial

A very normal development

As I said, this will be the case. But that will not be a reason to panic or to call in activism and economic programs. The reason is simple: This downturn is, even if by special factors invoked (see above), a very normal story. Only right after such a long Phase of recovery, as experienced in Germany in the past decade. The economy is made of cycles, and those are the wavy lines and not straight lines from bottom left to top right.

Why is such a downturn important? Many companies in the country have run over the past few years are downright hot. Often, not all the orders could be processed. Plant utilization to 90 percent and more. Add to this a well-a defendant’s lack of skilled workers. Now, in times of downturn, reduction in Overcapacity from the times of the boom, one is on a normal capacity. And you will come again to repair a production line or replace.

Hundreds of thousands of vacant Posts

Also the worry of large waves of redundancies are, currently at least, is still completely unjustified. Of course, it sounds like a threat, when large corporations such as Bayer, BASF, and VW announce to thousands of jobs. But the German economy, not large corporations, but especially the many Thousands of small and medium-sized enterprises. Never before have so many people in Germany had a permanent Job as is currently – and still the labour market, researchers report, nearly 1.4 million Vacancies. And then there’s always the wonderful recipe of short-time working money. Since the work Agency is responsible for the continued payment of wages for a certain period of time, redundancies are avoided, staff remain with the company. The job situation is picking up again, started the company directly.

Currently, the 50,000 applications to short-time work at the Federal employment Agency. For comparison: in 2009, the year after the world financial crisis, as the German economy slumped by five percent, there were nearly 1.5 million. At the time, it has helped a lot, the large waves of redundancies remained. The thing works so, and therefore noise, it looks a bit like the election campaign, when the social democratic Minister of labour, work touring with new ideas for the Short through the country.

No Stimulus Package! An investment package is a must!

Because really necessary other: would be A quick tax relief for the employee. This is because the Minus in economic performance would certainly have been greater if not for the so-called i.e. the internal demand (: people need to consume!) a strong support would have been. Now, if the bad news from the economy make people more careful in spending money or the companies holding back investments, may have to open the Minister of Finance of the box. No man needs a “black Zero”! What is needed now is investment and purchase incentives. Germany pushes to a huge Investment backlog in the infrastructure in front of it.

Since ideas such as the renowned economy are to be welcomed researcher Michael Hüther only. It proposes a so-called Germany Fund, amounting to 450 billion euros, stretched to ten years. Financed through Federal bonds, to be torn by the Bundesbank currently formally from the hands. Meanwhile, creditors pay money to get such promissory notes. The money invested will be in the areas of transport, fast Internet, Housing, education and in – attention: environmental protection!

Because what this would be, for all. I’m just afraid, we’ve got something the wrong government at the Start.