Intricate situation in Italy: fresh elections for sure

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Coalition to dissolve, elections force. That was the Plan of the right-wing Lega-heads for Italy. However, this could rise quickly. The Parliament and the President have something to say about that.

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Senate-the group leaders will advise in Rome

The head of the Northern League, Matteo Salvini, spent the weekend at beaches in the South of Italy. There, he makes the already powerful campaign and sentiment against the former coalition partners, the 5-star, had, particularly in the poorer South more voters than the Lega. The Chairman of the 5-star movement, Luigi Di Maio, was also not lazy and is working on a Plan for quick elections, the Salvini with the collapse of the populist coalition wants to achieve, prevent. Di Maio accused the right-wing Lega, you have betrayed the Italians and schiele only on survey results, is not interested in reforms and stable government. Allegedly Di Maios 5-star, and the opposition social Democrats to negotiate, the current head of the government, Giuseppe Conte, together with the confidence and Salvini’s motion of censure, he has brought in the Senate against its own head of government, to subvert.

Total campaign mode: Salvini on the beach in the Sicilian town of Taormina on Sunday

Socialists and 5-stars in a boat?

However, the social Democrats are internally divided on whether they should team up in fact with the 5-stars that you have seen so far, as the main opponent. The former government and party leader Matteo Renzi is the current party leader Nicola Zingaretti says, however: “This is not a credible Alternative, to hold an economic government in office, which could be zeroing in on the Right then.” Zingaretti pointed out that it is not Matteo Salvini but the President will ultimately decide whether and when it will be elections.

In the government crisis is now the first questions in the Parliament. The senators in the second chamber of the Parliament have to decide when you Conte the vote of no confidence against the Prime Minister, requested by the right-wing Lega, put it on the agenda.

The majority of political group leaders in the Senate has been in session on Monday, majority to 20. August is pronounced. For the definition of the appointment in a unanimous vote of the group Chairman, but it would have been necessary, which is why the plenary session on Tuesday to decide. It would be very unusual, in the middle of the summer recess, to convene a special session of the Parliament, because in August, half of Italy on the beach, spends, and anyway little for the crises in Rome, interested.

In search of an alternative majority: Di Maio wants to stay in office

State President could be subject to new elections

The Parliament of the government should Express the mistrust, then the President of the Republic Sergio mattarella had two options. He could dissolve the Parliament and call for new elections start, maybe already in October. Many Italian commentators expect, but rather that President Mattarella will try a “technocrat”government for a transitional period of a maximum of one year. This government should then set up the difficult budget for the coming year that needs to be presented in October by the European Commission.

Italy is in an economic crisis, needs to reduce its excessive debt and its banks continue to restructure. A long government would have a crisis or even a right-wing led government under Matteo Salvini, whose financial policy it can only puzzles, the European Union is extremely inconvenient. The Italian newspaper “La Repubblica” writes, Salvini wanted to get out, if he would, after new elections, the Prime Minister, from the common currency, the Euro. Salvini denies this, although this step has already been in the party programme of the Lega.

President Mattarella (li.) the Prime Minister, Conte (could.) support or a transitional Prime use

The right-wing Northern League is currently up to 36 per cent in the polls. To Govern Matteo Salvini would, however, coalition parties. He wants to meet, he said, soon with the leaders of the fascist “Fratelli d’italia” and the national-conservative “Forza Italia”. There, the former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi comes back into the game, the could experience with his almost 83 years, made a Comeback in a extreme right-wing coalition.

For the 5-stars it’s about Survival

In the last elections in 2016, the populist movement of the 5-star had won 32 percent of the vote and became the strongest force in Parliament. In surveys, Luigi Di Maio is now with his motley force, only half of the votes in third place. Di Maio is fighting, maybe, for personal reasons, against new elections. Because, according to the internal regulations of the populist members may only compete two Times in a row for choice. For Di Maio, the next choice would be the third. The Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of labour would have to leave the field.

Prior to a new election Di Maio wants to, as a self-proclaimed Anti-Establishment fighters and Anti-politician, a long-planned reduction in the size of the Italian Parliament, by boxes. The two chambers currently have 950 seats. To be shortened to 605. The vote was scheduled for September. In order to convince the Lega of a short-term Alliance with the social Democrats, had declared the prominent former party boss Renzi surprisingly, his party could now vote for the reduction in the size of the Parliament.

When two quarrel, says the third: Berlusconi could be the oldsters tip the scales of a right-wing coalition

Bad news for the EU

The founder of the movement 5 stars, the popular comedian Beppe Grillo, had withdrawn from active politics actually back. In the light of the bursting of the coalition of the populists, said Grillo: “I rise in order to save Italy from the new barbarians.”

For Europe, a radical right-wing government in Italy would be a disaster, says the head of the German Institute for economic research Marcel Fratzscher. It was even worse than the current team that had achieved little. “Salvini will continue to go on confrontation course with Europe, especially as this has been for him so far, paid off,” said the economic expert in a number of Interviews. “An increasingly populist and xenophobic course in Italy will make it to Europe in the foreign policy, security policy, and the issue of Migration much more difficult.”