Export minus – the end of the good times

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International trade conflicts leave traces in the German export balance sheet. In June, the export of German Goods fell compared to the same month last year to eight percent. Also in the case of imports, a Minus stands for.

German exports declined in June strongly: Exported Goods were in the amount of 106.1 billion euros, which was in the year-on-year comparison, a decrease of eight percent, as the Federal Statistical office in Wiesbaden announced on Friday. Compared to may, exports decreased by 0.1 percent.

Also, imports decreased significantly. So were imported in June to a value of 89.3 billion Euro, compared to a decline of 4.4 percent in June, 2018. Compared to may, the imports increased by 0.5 percent. The foreign trade balance closed the statistics show that in June with a Surplus of 16.8 billion euros in calendar and seasonally adjusted, there were 18.1 billion euros.

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The threat of a trade war in the far East

Particularly strong for exports to countries outside the EU decreased in June, it fell by 10.7 percent on a volume of 42.6 billion euros. From there, Goods were imported to the value of 36 billion euros, a decrease of 8.9 percent. Exports to EU countries declined by 6.2 percent, and imports declined in the year-on-year by 1.1 percent.

“The good times are over”

The escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China, the slowdown in the global economy and the risk of a disorderly Brexits for uncertainty. “The good times of the German export industry are over,” said Ifo chief Clemens Fuest the situation.

“The uncertainty grows due to the of some of the political protagonists caused unrest,” said BGA President Holger Bing man recently, the German press Agency. The result is that companies are holding back with investments in companies less orders.

German economy between Washington and Beijing

Only this week a new round in trade war between the US and China had caused a stir. Only a few days after the announcement of the new penal duties by the US President, Donald Trump China devalued its currency. The allegation of the United States, the people’s Republic of manipulating their currency with the aim of own advantages in world trade, rejected Beijing.

The chief Executive of the Federal Association of German industry, Joachim Lang, warned of a further escalation: “The expansion of the trade conflict at the international monetary relations increases the uncertainty for the global economy.”

The trade is weakening worldwide

The conflict between Beijing and Washington, as well as other US President, Trump heated disputes, curb the growth of global trade. The world Bank predicted last an increase of just 2.6 percent for this year. That would be the weakest increase since the financial crisis. For the export-oriented German economy, the news is not good.

“Due to the large export sector and the openness of trade Germany feels global developments usually faster than many other Nations,” explained Ron van het Hof, head of credit insurer Euler Hermes in Germany, Austria and Switzerland.

Forecasts are being corrected downwards

After the first half of the year, a meagre growth in exports of 0.5 percent to beech stands. The industry Association BGA has recently halved its forecast and expects to 2019, only with an Export growth of 1.5 percent.

Many research institutions have recently lowered their forecasts for economic growth in 2019. The Federal government expects only an increase of 0.5 percent.

dk/hb (dpa, afp, rtr)