The Situation between the US and Iran is heating up more and more. An agreement is not in sight. Nevertheless, experts agree that A military escalation will want to avoid both parties.
On Monday, US President, Donald Trump declared that the USA have imposed new sanctions against Iran, which would come into force immediately. The “tough” new rules, according to the President, are directed against the Supreme leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and deny him and his environment access to important financial resources.
The new sanctions are a further sign that the tone between the US and Iran intensified. After Trump had cancelled on Thursday an air strike against Iran in retaliation for a Drohnenabschussin the last Minute, put he and his advisers put great value on clear, that the USA have kept back this Time. This does not mean, however, that Iran had nothing to fear.
“Neither Iran nor other hostile actors should understand the prudence of the United States as a weakness, miss,” said Trumps National security adviser John Bolton. And the President himself said on Monday: “I think one of us has shown much restraint, and this does not mean that we will show in the future.”
More: retribution attack interrupted after drone launch, in the short term
Comment: war and peace, à la Trump
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United States increase pressure on Iran
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The carrot and the stick: US to increase pressure on Iran
Sanctions instead of military strike – but how successfully?
Air RAID canceled, instead, impose sanctions. This could suggest that Trump wants to solve the conflict with Iran, rather diplomatically. And also the Iran shot down “only” an unmanned U.S. drone, although the military may have been according to their own information is also an accompanying aircraft. “It is clear that neither side wants a war,” said Alex Vatanka, a Senior Fellow with the US think-tank Middle East Institute, the DW.
At the same time Vatanka warns that just one wrong move could bring the powder keg of the US-Iran relationship to Explode. “It is important to be aware that in such a tense Situation, with so many moving Parts, missing steps can happen,” said the Tehran-born security expert. And then it might come to the Worst.
Trump has made since his exit from the nuclear deal clear that he wants to prevent at any price that Iran gets a nuclear weapon. He wants to bring the Iranians back to the negotiating table, in order, as he says, better Deal, the Tehran for a longer period of time binds the contract in 2015. But so far the US President has more to do with increasingly stringent sanctions, only that the leadership in Iran is becoming stubborn.
“In the past, sanctions have worked, because they were multilateral, and diplomatic base,” says Kaleigh Thomas, a researcher at the U.S. think tank Center for a New American Security. “At the time, communication is not open channels to Iran, which is now the case.”
Trump as a diplomatic “good cop”
Knows no restraint: security Advisor John Bolton
So what is trump’s Plan with the sanctions against Iran which have not borne fruit in his tenure so far at all? Vatanka thinks that the US government puts your hope in the Iranian population, which suffers always met worse under the Economic. “The best case would see the Trump-government, would be that the people in Iran are about the poor living conditions so angry that they rebel and regime change are calling for,” says Vatanka. “I think this is unlikely.”
There’s a regime change in the Islamic Republic is not just a must-try, the U.S. President by other means, to move the Iran negotiations. In comparison to its Sicherheitsberator, Hardliner John Bolton, or foreign Minister, Mike Pompeo, could be President Trump, for example, as the finer the conversation partners act-Alternative.
“He can pull off the ‘good cop, bad cop’ number,” says Vatanka. “He needs to show only to Bolton or Pompeo and say ‘you think I’m bad? Look at the.'”
Also, middle East expert Thomas says that Bolton would be, rather, a military conflict, but it eventually President of the Trump was in charge. “He needs to show Iran that the government is interested, as a Whole, to a diplomatic solution.” Otherwise Iran would not be so quickly to the negotiating table.