The European Union intends to respond with a deficit in procedural rule violations by the populist government in Rome. This is much ADO about nothing, says Andreas Rostek-Buetti, but nevertheless, this noise is necessary.
This comment could turn out to be very short: Yes, the European Union must be a procedure against Italy because of persistent failure to comply with a set of rules that have been given to all members of the community.
And no: The method will have no effect whatsoever – and certainly not economically relevant results. As well as? The Powerful in Rome to know that their country is too large to be simply “punished”. Not to mention an expulsion from the Association.
So we could end up.
And yet, the EU is the effort level, a level so wide and large that it extends loosely from the manicured area around Milan, up to the shallow waters around Sicily. Because Italy is in the EU economically-charged explosive device, the only political means to deal with. The man must be dealt with using political means – the European Union has no other choice.
The explosive rate in Figures: Italy had in the last year, a state debt of 132,2 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP). The debt sum in hard currency: the end of 2018, there were more than 2.3 trillion euros. For 2020, the EU Commission expects a level of debt for Italy of more than 135 percent. The rules for Euro area countries, but allows 60 percent.
Andreas Rostek-Buetti, DW-business editorial
An Explosive Device
A few Figures: Italy’s share of the EU’s economic output is 11.2 percent (in 2017) – the economy stagnated in Italy, and unemployment remains high. The sum of the state debts, the keeping of the Italian banks is more than 400 billion euros.
The state debt, to repay, as measured by the GDP, would need to work with the Italians for a year and four months long, without eating of what you develop as a Panino. This is of course a miscalculation, and the EU and its Commission knows, of course. Most recently, the EU Commission called for, it should at least be visible, and that Rome removes its debt and will not increase. To do this, at least, the Italian budget deficit should be reduced, which is currently two percent.
Populist in Power – Lega-chief and Minister of the interior Matteo Salvini
However, the Minister of the interior Matteo Salvini of the right-wing Lega does not want to play the game: “The time is past when we get a letter from Brussels.” The strong man talks in Rome. If it were up to him, would increase the Italian budget deficit in the next year to five per cent.
“The government will fall”
And it goes after him – that is the political as well as economic Problem of the European Union. Because, a few Figures, if not directly of an economic nature: Salvini with his Lega came in the European elections in Italy, more than 34 percent of the vote (and doubling the weight of his force). The only lavierende, formerly left-wing populist movement, Five star brought it to just 17 percent. The two coalition partners to switch roles. And block more cheerful each other.
That Salvini is playing with the idea of new elections and self-government wants to be a chef, is in Rome as a certainty: “no one knows when the government will fall, but now all have understood, that you can really plunge,” – quoted by the Corriere della Sera, one of the members.
Of the potential future rulers in Rome also sentences such as this are cited: “The limits of the currency Union are old and outdated, and you have harmed Europe … I don’t hang myself on a small rule.”
The Pragmatic strengths
With this talk of the Minister and Populist drives, again and again, the costs for the Italian state debt in the amount, a concentrated, so the game room of his government and compromises the microstructure of the existence of Italian banks – and thus the stability of the European Financial.
The pragmatists stären! – Demonstration of EU-supporters
With a large lobe – either from Brussels (EU), Frankfurt (European Central Bank) or Washington (International monetary Fund) – is not the way to tackle. Only with constant readiness to talk of the EU, with the standing offer to go small steps, to look for small progress. And where it is going to strengthen the still Sensible and Pragmatic in the country, in Banca d’italia, in companies, in NGOs and civil society at all.
The club from Brussels strengthens the strong man in Rome. The EU needs to pan nonetheless, if you don’t want to throw their own rule book on the pile, without a replacement agreement, is exactly right. The Whole thing may seem like a quadrature of the beam. The solution to the problem lies solely with the Italians. If you have the time to do it at all.