China is in the cul-de-SAC?

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Due to the trade dispute with the United States can be a for China is tempting, the presidential election of 2020, to wait and to hope for a victory for the Democrats. The should consider China better twice.

The Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei is in the United States on the Index, and negotiations between the two countries, to end the trade dispute, have failed, without a new appointment was scheduled. This is the state of Affairs between Washington and Beijing.

Against this Background, China’s President Xi Jinping recently spoke of a “new long March”. Thus, Xi alluded to the “Long March” (1934-35), the Communists in the Chinese civil war. Although more than 90 percent of Communist troops died in the organization, he gave to the Communist party, but the ability to reposition themselves.

Puzzles about XI’s allusion to a party myth

A deprivation time for the sake of the future, is probably the point of this comparison. He could point out that President Xi prepared for the Chinese population to further economic problems, says Abraham Denmark, formerly East Asia officer in the U.S. Department of defense and now head of the Asia program of the Wilson Center, an independent research center in Washington.

The statement of the Chinese President was also a sign that the ongoing trade dispute with the US have made the Chinese economy stronger, as officials in Beijing earlier assumptions Denmark says: “did you know that the economy would weaken because of restructuring anyway, but the trade war has intensified the process, with safety and accelerated.” The effects were stronger than China had expected.

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China reacted with counter-tariffs

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China reacted with counter-tariffs

Given the already longer-lasting trade conflict Xis words could be interpreted in a way that Beijing regarded it as unrealistic to find a quick way out. The Chinese leadership might find it as useful, the US presidential election next year, to be seen – in the hope that Trump will be beaten, and a democratic successor was the affable, says the Asia expert: “If China decides to take, the sit out is a game of luck.”

Also from the point of view of Andrew Small professional for the relations of the two countries at the time of Foundation, the German Marshall Fund – might Wait and see approach “and drinking tea to be” for various reasons, is very risky. “For a Ride that is a pretty long period of time. As we have seen, can happen in the meantime, a lot of, with immediate and long-term consequences for the Chinese economy.”

No access to the technology sector

The telecommunications companies Huawei and ZTE were effectively excluded from the U.S. market, shows Small, especially in The USA, may harm with its considerable influence, China’s economy seriously, without that Beijing could react in a similar way. “The position of Huawei and ZTE has been quasi with a spring on the part of the USA line greatly weakened.”

In fact, from the US market banished: The Chinese Tech companies Huawei and ZTE

Chinese Tech firms access to the U.S. market and U.S. components, to deny that you need, is in itself a Problem. The effect could be more pronounced but still, if international companies are questioning whether they want to work together with the indexed companies. The worldwide could have a devastating aftermath.

The past conduct of Washington towards Beijing could also have been just the beginning, says Small. “At the Moment everything in the technology sector is. But in principle, it could hit every sector, which for China a priority.”

Democrats and Republicans agree

There are other reasons why it is for China to be counterproductive it could be to move trade talks after the U.S. presidential election: A victory by the Democrats is not secure at all. And one of the Democrats-led government could make the situation for China even more difficult than it is currently.

The Democrats don’t like to be with the style and methods of the Republican presidential Donald Trump in the trade dispute agree. So an American is likely to be inclined government under Democrats less, certain aspects of trump’s trade policy continue as tariffs as the preferred means, other countries – including our allies – punish.

Whether the White house would be disposed with a democratic President’s China-friendly?

However, the Democrats share the attitude that the Trumps are doing: The United States must align their relationship to China. Politicians of both parties have the idea that both States were in the future involved in a competition with each other, says Asia expert, Denmark.

United Front

Only in one point the Democrats had made a difference to Trump clearly says Small. “If China is your main objective, you should economies together with other people have the same concerns about China. The impact is greater when you’re in the position to act together”, summarizes Small the setting. A government of the Democrats would forge probably an international Alliance which would put China even more under pressure.

All options would Beijing in an uncomfortable Position, says Abraham Denmark, from the Wilson Center. “Negotiated with Trump, at the to predict that it is unpredictable, or you can roll the dice and waiting to see what happens in the next election? Then China could find itself in a more difficult negotiating position with the Trump-government.”

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Google terminates cooperation with Huawei

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Google terminates cooperation with Huawei