Prior to the European elections, economic growth remains weak, although it has recovered somewhat recently. The situation on the labour market improved, however, continued. But the play in the country.
Economically, the Europeans currently have some cause for concern. Because of the constant threats of the US President are duties Special, because of the ongoing trade conflict between the United States and China, as the Brexit, with all its uncertainties, is. And the consequences of the debt and financial crisis, the expense is still like a shadow on the European monetary Union.
In the second half of the year 2018, the economy had grown power of the Europeans hardly. Germany, the largest economy on the continent, was the only rams close to a recession over speed. A few days before the European elections, the statistics office Eurostat could give at least a little clear. In the first three months of the year, the economy has to get back in the swing; in the EU it grew by 0.5 percent in Germany, 0.4 percent.
Less Growth-2019
That, however, had “no reason to sound the all-clear,” said the German Economics Minister, Peter Altmaier, unusually careful. Similar to the EU-Commission in Brussels. Your published in may economic forecast expected for the current year, a significantly weaker growth in Europe.
The muted expectations in Europe reflect the forecasts for growth and trade worldwide, as the International monetary Fund and other institutions have published. If it is not the world economy is good, to suffer also the Europeans, the Argument goes. The EU and particularly the Eurozone, are “highly dependent on external demand”, – stated in the report of the Commission.
The mood drops further, and if home-made problems. “To upheavals in the auto industry, social tensions, political uncertainty and uncertainty due to the Brexit,” said the Commission.
According to the forecasts of Germany, especially the export to see dependent and with a weak auto sector: 0.5 per cent. Italy with political uncertainty, governed by the left and right-wing populists: 0.1 percent. Relatively well it runs in France, although there is still the yellow vests will demonstrate: 1.3 percent.
Ironically, Poland and Hungary
By far the highest growth (4.2 percent) achieved in Poland, of all places, the country against whose government a disciplinary procedure, because it is a violation according to the EU Commission against basic democratic principles. Hungary, whose government is accused chief Victor Orban, also, to endanger the democracy, with a growth forecast of 3.7 percent, well above average. With such Numbers, a choice for the European election good fight to make.
As positive, the EU Commission noted the stable domestic demand in most countries. They stressed that this was only to rising wages and robust labour market data, but – in the case of Poland, Hungary and other EU States to the East of the center at the steady flow of funding billion from Brussels.
In Germany, the Netherlands, but also in Poland and Hungary, unemployment is particularly low. Problematic is the situation remains especially on the southern edge of the EU, especially in Greece, Italy and Spain.
The EU-Commission expects for the current year, an unemployment rate of 7.7 percent in the Euro area and by 6.5 percent in the EU, including the UK. In the year 2020 will improve the situation on the labour market, albeit at a slower pace than before, until they finally reached 7.3 percent, “a level that is lower than before the financial crisis,” the Commission said.
It remains tricky, and even after the election
Ultimately, the EU must, however, Commission admit, that the list of risks is very long. Trade conflicts, punitive tariffs, a weaker world economy, a tough Brexit, even a Flare-up of the problems in the banking sector and in sovereign bonds is not excluded.
Given all the risks, it is not surprising then that the European elections can be to the economic uncertainty factor. Governments should take after the elections, “a non-sustainable policy,” or there is political uncertainty, the report of the Commission, “then the risk is that private investors are withdrawing their money”.