Internationally, there is growing concern of an escalation in the Persian Gulf. The US of a new threat, and the first diplomats to leave Iraq. On whose side of the Iraq?
Watch the Video
02:35
Share
Tensions in the Gulf region
Send
google+
Tumblr
VZ
Newsvine
Digg
Permalink https://p.dw.com/p/3IZC9
Tensions in the Gulf region
All officials, which are not needed in Baghdad, will leave Iraq immediately. The US state Department justified the recall of the Embassy staff with a threat to “US-hostile sectarian militias” in Iran. The US government had only “limited opportunities to American citizens in Iraq in case of emergency services,” reads a press release of the State Department.
For weeks, the US government increased the pressure on Tehran solid. At the beginning of the month, the US sent an aircraft carrier and a bomber squadron in the Region. After that, another war-ship and anti-aircraft missile system has been followed. Both US Secretary of state Mike Pompeo, as well as Iran stressed, do not want war. Nevertheless, the next escalation level: Sabotage incidents in the Region, drones and threats of attacks on a Saudi Pipeline, US. There is growing concern that a triggering incident in the tense Situation of an uncontrollable escalation.
Large influence of the Iranians in Iraq
The Iraqi Prime Minister Abdel Abdul-Mahdi said, to have no movements observed, which represented a threat: “We have made the Americans clear that the government complied with their obligation to protect all parties Involved.”
One of the main oil Pipelines of Saudi Arabia was attacked with explosives-Laden drones
However, as a neighbouring country of Iran and the former occupation zone of the United States is no way around the fact that Iraq plays a role in the conflict. “Iraq is in the last few years in a very difficult Situation, because he is allied with the Americans, as well as with Tehran very closely,” says Guido Steinberg of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und politik in a DW Interview.
Iran also takes influence on Iraqi politics. The Shiite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, many Sunnis in Iraq as a puppet of Iran. Tehran exercises in the neighbouring country, in addition, influence over Shiite militias. Iraq is torn entertain between his desire to good relationship with the Americans, and the massive political, military and economic influence of the Iranians, says policy expert Steinberg.
“A political disaster for Iraq”
This makes it to Iraq all the more difficult, a clear stance in the dispute between Tehran and Washington. Both US soldiers as well as Iranian militias are present in Iraq. Although Iraq tends to take into account the wishes of Tehran, attempts it an escalation of the conflict between the two parties on Iraqi soil to prevent, as middle East expert Steinberg. “For Iraq, it would be a political disaster if it actually comes to attacks. Mainly because it could lead to American retaliation, possibly against Iranian controlled militias in Iraq.”
In the case of a military conflict, the Iraq would try to the government to remain neutral, declared Manaf Musawi, head of the centre for strategic studies in Baghdad, in front of the DW. However, large parts of the security authorities, which are controlled by Shia militias, as well as parts of the population would turn against the United States, Musawi.
US Secretary of state Pompeo flew because of the urgency to Baghdad and not, as announced, to Germany
Although US Secretary of state Mike Pompeo had to take away prompted the Iraqi government to keep the militias under control, but that could lead to the assessment of the former US diplomat Nabil Khoury, a civil war in the country: “The Shiite militias, the weapons, would lead to conflict in Iraq. The attempt at using the militias to dissolve, and in the Iraqi army, has failed,” said Khoury of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs to the DW.
Distrust of the United States
Currently about 5,000 American soldiers are stationed in Iraq. Tehran might be trying to tire in the case of a military conflict suit. Since Iran would not have the military capacity to lead an open war, he would have to apply other tactics, such as Guido Steinberg of the Stiftung Wissenschaft und politik explains: “We should not therefore expect there to be any major Fighting between major units. A more likely scenario is that proiranische militias procedure indirectly. For example, a rocket or mortar attack from American bases. In direct Fighting against US would have troops, you have no Chance.”
Whether the warnings of Iranian attacks have a real basis is still unknown, because they were occupied by any government. Parallel to the year 2003 at the urging of, at the Time, the assertion that the country would have weapons of mass destruction was Iraq, to be disastrous. The claim was never confirmed, however, the Invasion followed. Since then, the distrust of Washington is high.
It is clear that A military conflict would hit Iraq hard. “Trump wants to actually fight a war. It would be destructive for all. But the provocative rhetoric is always followed by the mobilization and because mistakes can happen,” says Ex-Diplomat Khoury. Therefore, all would have to be very careful. “The United States of America will experience a very peculiar time, with a very unusual Administration. It is a little difficult as to predict.”