Fear of escalation in the Gulf

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Saudi Arabia has declared that two of its oil Tankers had become victims of an act of Sabotage. Still, the situation is unclear. However, a discussion of the possible copyright is flared. The nervousness in the Region is increasing.

Oil tanker off the coast near Fujairah (archive image)

“Very worried,” was the British government that in the Gulf Region, “pure”, a new conflict could arise, said the British foreign Minister, Jeremy Hunt on Monday morning. He was responding to the statement by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), two of its oil Tankers had been damaged on Sunday Morning off the coast of Fujairah, a part of state of the UAE, through a “subversive Operation”. In addition, two other trading vessels had been affected. According to Riad, two of the attacking ships came from Saudi Arabia.

A representative of the government of the Emirates, it was the two other ships, a Norwegian Tanker and a cargo ship from the Emirates. The Emirates published a photo of the damaged hull of the Norwegian ship, the “Andrea Victory” was in sight. The Charter company Thome said that the Tanker had been taken “out of an undefined object”. The crew is well, the ship threatened to sink.

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Affected is also a Saudi Arabian Tanker to bring Oil into the United States. About the background of the actions in the Emirate of Fujairah, nothing is known. Given the tensions in the Region, caution is required. (13.05.2019)

Since the Sabotage-message of Sunday, there has been hardly any for more information. The Saudi energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said in one of the Saudi press Agency on Monday published a Declaration of a “dangerous threat to international Maritime security.” The act have tasted neither human life, nor is oil penetrated into the sea, he added. However, he had caused “significant damage” to the structure of the two ships. The “attack” to meet the global Oil supply.

Fear of further escalation

The statement from Saudi Arabia and the UAE nourishes the fear of a further escalation in the Gulf. At the same time, she falls in a time of rising tensions in the Region. On Thursday, the U.S. Navy had warned office (United States Maritime Administration, USMA) from attacks on tankers. The office made for the potential danger, especially a state is responsible: There is an “increased possibility that Iran and/or its regional representative” oil Tanker, commercial, or military vessels of the United States or its allies attack could, it was said there would be.

The action comes at a time in which the United States sent the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln in the Gulf, to prevent a Trump Administration feared the attack of Iran on a U.S. facility in the Region. The government in Tehran, the White house, and mobilize non-official troops for possible aggression.

Speaking of Sabotage, the Saudi energy Minister Khalid al-Falih

Already prior to this warning, the United States had tried to Iran after the termination of the nuclear agreement from its oil income cut off. China, India, Japan, South Korea and Turkey, according to the desire of Washington, no more should obtain their Oil imports now from Iran. Instead, it was said, wanted to compensate the United States for the delivery failure, together with Saudi Arabia and the UAE.

Iran is Contemptuous of

Iran reacted to the Sabotage explanation of Saudi Arabia and the UAE on the defensive. A spokesman for the Iranian foreign Ministry spoke of a “regrettable incident”. At the same time, he warned against “adventurism of foreign actors”.

And yet: It is not ruled out that Iran was behind the act of sabotage, says the Libyan military analyst Charles Abi Nader. Iran will send two clear messages, so Abi Nader in an interview with DW. “On the one hand, he declares that he will accept any restriction of its Oil exports. And on the other he wants to make it clear that the security of the entire Region is at risk.” Iran to respond to the Attempts to increase the Oil exports of the Gulf States. “In Tehran, sees this as a threat to the economic stability of the country. All Attempts to curb the Oil exports from the outside, if one evaluates in Tehran, therefore, as an attack.”

Also Abdelbari Atwan, editor-in-chief of the Internet newspaper “Rai al-youm”, does not exclude that Iran is behind the Sabotage could be an act. He quotes in his commentary to the statements of the political hardliners current Iranian Ayatollah Yousef Tabatabai Nejad. “This one-billion-Dollar fleet can be destroyed with a single rocket,” said the theologian. General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, commander of the air forces of the Islamic revolutionary guard of Iran, declared that they could attack the US aircraft carrier. This was “like a piece of meat between our teeth.”

The Role Of Israel

Both Abdelbari Atwan, as well as the military analyst Charles Abi Nader is not close but also other actors. Both also think it is conceivable that Israel is standing behind the Sabotage act. In this way, the government could try in Jerusalem, to increase the tensions between Iran and the United States and Saudi Arabia on the other side, so your presumption. Israel has argued since time immemorial, against the international nuclear agreement. The Netanyahu government fears that Iran could go the agreement and secretly continue the development of the atomic bomb work. Moreover, Israel sees the Lebanese Hezbollah threatened, whose fighters have moved in on Syrian territory up to the border with Israel. Hezbollah is regarded as a vassal group, the government in Tehran. Is proved, the responsibility of Israel, however, as little as that of Iran.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards (Archive Image 2018)

Fujairah as a Symbol

The latest act of sabotage took place just in Fujairah, was no coincidence, says Charles Abi Nader. The Strait of Hormuz is well secured, there is an attack or act of sabotage would hardly be possible. Fujairah but the Strait lying to the East, in a less secure location of the sea road. “The perpetrators of the attack want to give to understand that you can hit them in several places. You give to understand that the whole of the Strait is vulnerable.”

Who is actually behind the attack, is currently open. Only one thing is clear: The leaders have increased the tension in the Region.