Ukraine before the political earthquake


The desire of many Ukrainians for a fresh start increases the chances of the comedian Volodymyr Selenskyj in the runoff election for President. The head of state Petro Poroshenko still has a Chance?

Candidates in the runoff election: Petro Poroshenko, Volodymyr Selenskyj

In Ukraine something big is brewing. The mood before the run-off election to the office of the President on Sunday is so irritated, most recently during the protests of the Opposition in the Winter of 2014. In families, offices and, above all, in social networks it is argued and scolded, friendships disintegrate. The reason for the excitement of the impending victory of the television comedian Volodymyr Selenskyj. According to current surveys, Selenskyj stands at 60 percent of the vote. Poroshenko can expect only half as many votes. With a similarly large distance Selenskyj won the first round of elections on 31. March.

The result of the first election loss: Selenskyjs supporters are spread all over the country, because, after all, the popular comedian and political newcomers in most of the country has received the majority of votes. The Ukrainian conditions is a rare case. But so far, of social peace there can be no question. On the contrary, hatred is in the air. Many abhor Poroshenko and wish him a defeat, although there are also some that Selenskyj little better. A desperate minority, a drescht to the voters of Selenskyj.

Why Selenskyj is so popular

Selenskyj, who had announced his candidacy in the new year’s eve, surprisingly, rose to within a few months for the electorate to be a bearer of hope. Its strongholds are in Eastern and southern Ukraine, where many citizens speak Russian, and, among other things, by the advance of the Ukrainian language and culture in the last few years, taken by surprise feel. Selenskyj itself comes from this Region, speaks Russian and is regarded as “one of us”. But also in the Central and some Western parts of the country, the comedian was able to score as a candidate.

The election program of the presidential candidate, Volodymyr Selenskyj on the Internet

His biggest trump cards: fame and popularity as a Comedian, as well as policy distance. After decades of political turmoil and corruption scandals, the desire of many Ukrainians, according to a new set of faces so large that it seems like you would want to engage in an Experiment with a political newcomer to the state. Selenskyj benefits obviously, but also of one of his roles: In the TV series “servant of the people,” he plays a school teacher, the President, and cleans up. His populist hatred for “corrupt and greedy” of the Ukrainian politicians in the series, many speak from the soul. And although he plays like a fairy tale conceived series, a role he seems to be on the nerve of the people.

Poroshenko is fighting with his back to the wall

During the three weeks between the rounds of voting Selenskyj showed itself to be sure, increasingly, victory, operation, hardly election campaign and gave hardly any Interviews. The 41-Year-old, however, also appealed to his followers – mostly with ironic video messages in social networks. Instead of discussing content that was days about drug and alcohol testing of candidates – a demand of Selenskyj – joked.

The controversial promotional posters of Petro Poroshenko

The 53-year-old Poroshenko seemed increasingly like a man, went to almost all the demands of Selenskyj and tried to copy in some aspects of his Challenger. An example: In a trial in the case of young voters, also offered Poroshenko stickers with photos, and awards at the popular messenger service Telegram. But his stickers look wooden in comparison to those of Selenskyj. Also, the number of subscribers of the two candidates speak for themselves: While Poroshenko has around 53,000 Telegram-Followers, Selenskyj of more than 145,000.

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The polls suggest that Poroshenko may win only by a miracle. Its original strategy of his opponent as a puppet of Russian President Vladimir Putin is not risen. Poroshenko has had to justify its controversial advertising poster with a Putin portrait. After five years in office, Poroshenko must now acknowledge that his foreign policy successes – such as the visa-free regime for the EU are less important for the citizens as rising gas prices and an ever poorer of the population. But also accusations of corruption against the environment have been harmed by Poroshenko. This is also why it is politically increasingly lonely to the President. He has hardly any allies parties would advertise for him. Most of the top politicians from the count, apparently, with a victory of Selenskyj and wait.

Turbulent times on the horizon

Selenskyj should actually win, is likely to come to the Ukraine in turbulent times, appreciate the observers in Kiev. His victory on the already fragile political System by shaking. The range of early parliamentary elections, constitutional reform and redistribution of Power to violent street protests the seeds. The latter would be expected, for example, if Selenskyj would be the start of a departure from the previous Pro-Western policy and rapprochement with Russia. He pleaded to a path of Ukraine towards the EU, signalled but also a willingness to compromise in the direction of Moscow.