The spectacular arrest of Brazil’s Ex-President Michel Temer, it could be a Pyrrhic victory for the investigators of “Operation car wash“ – and in the Congress, the Agenda of President Jair Bolsonaro impede.
With the arrest of Ex-President Michel Temer, the investigators of the “Lava Jato” (Operation car wash) have sent a clear Signal to the Supreme court and the entrenched political Establishment. It was present and strong, so is the message. Previously, the investigators had a number of defeats, which is the continuation of the since 2014 the ongoing Anti-corruption-threatening surgery.
So the Supreme court had decided that cases of corruption related to the financing of election campaigns, the election courts. “Lava Jato” thus loses its most important cases. General Prosecutor Raquel Dodge also spoke of the “Lava Jato” planned establishment of a Fund for self-financing of the investigation. So you want to reduce actually, the influence of the policy.
Furthermore, the Supreme court opened investigations against users of social media, the judges of the court had criticized. Members of the “Lava Jato” should belong to the “digital activists”, headed by its Director, Prosecutor Deltan Dallagnol, the accused to the court a “legal coup”. The “Lava Jato” ‘ve been literally on the ropes hung, says the coordinator of the center for justice and society (CJUS) of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV) in Rio, Michael Mohallem.
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“In another Moment, and the context of Temers arrest would not be a Surprise. But that was just in this Moment, leaves a scheduled Timing believe”, Mohallem, compared to the DW. “Coincidences are rare, particularly in the Brazilian politics. To arrest Temer shows that the Lava-Jato is still strong.”
Temers problems with the justice
Against Temer investigations in ten cases to run. On Thursday he has been laundering is now corruption and money, obstruction of justice, as well as formation of a criminal organisation accused of. State orders for the construction of the nuclear power plant Angra 3, which is created according to a cooperation with Germany. Temer is said to have received kickbacks of around 250,000 euros.
In the warrant of each note on the black choice has been avoided battle funds in order to get the case, not on the choice of dishes. Temer was the head of a 40 years of operating criminal Association, argued that the corruption of judge Marcelo Bretas, responsible for the “Lava Jato” in Rio de Janeiro, in his arrest warrant.
“Lava Jatos” new core
So far, the focus of the “Lava Jato was” not in Rio, but in Curitiba’s ongoing processes. There, the Federal court judge Sérgio Moro, among others, Ex-President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has been sitting for a year in prison. Moros opponents consider him to be politically biased.
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The controversial judge since January, the Minister of justice in the Cabinet of President Jair Bolsonaro, the right-wing populist against players of Lula. Bolsonaro had won the election with the promise to end corruption in politics, to clean up. “Lava Jato has helped to select Bolsonaro,” says Michael Mohallem.
The case Temer created now, however, the Narrative of political neutrality. “This strengthens the Lava Jato, because it shows that it is not fixed selectively to only Lula, but also the rights of politicians,” says political analyst Ricardo Ismael, compared to DW.
The arrest as a PR success
For Bolsonaro, the Episode has both positive and negative aspects. Just yesterday, polls showed a dramatic slump in his Approval. Temers arrest of the population is likely to have fallen. However, adversity in Congress, threatens, where his plans for pension reform critical, were taken just as the Minister of justice, the Moro and the plans presented an Anti-corruption legislation.
Jair Bolsonaros popularity drops
For his reforms Bolsonaro needs the votes of Temers party MP, says the political scientist Marco Aurélio Nogueira, compared to DW. Although Bolsonaro have increased the pressure on the MDB. “However, the votes needed in Congress for the reforms now need to be more expensive.”
Power struggles between the government and the Congress
The former energy Minister Moreira Franco, was detained. Spicy: He is married to the mother-in-law of President Rodrigo Maia. And with Maia and Bolsonaros reform package. “The decision to arrest Temer and Franco, could be understood as a means of pressure against Rodrigo Maia,” said Nogueira. “And some Moros Hand looks as in the game.”
President Maia had asked justice Minister Moro on the eve of the arrests to the public just after it had pushed for a swift adoption of the reforms. The pension reform could be damaged by an act of vengeance from the pages of Maia’s or the MDS,” says political scientist Ismael.
Michael Mohallem believes even to a counter-attack by the Congress under the direction of Maia. “The members of Congress could demand in return for their support of the reforms, a kind of protective shield in front of the judiciary.”
Legislative initiatives, the Power of the investigator to restrict, lie in the drawers of the Congress and can at any time be again placed on the agenda. Bolsonaro would have to decide whom he sacrifices: his reforms, or the “Lava Jato”.