On Wednesday, the Federal Minister of Finance Scholz will present to the Cabinet his key points for the Federal budget in 2020. Does not inspire it. Because it is foreseeable less. From Berlin, Sabine Kinkartz.
Nearly a decade, knew the economic barometer is only one direction: Upward. But now the clouds are piling up on the horizon, and the forecasts continuously go down. Instead of 1.8 percent, as last autumn accepted, expected the Federal government to 2019, only one per cent economic growth. The world economy is weakening, which is also on the forthcoming Brexit and the trade disputes between the United States and China.
The is also a brake on the tax revenue that flowed out in the past few years, but so reliable. “The taxes continue to grow, but not so dynamic”, formulated in the Ministry of Finance. The default is therefore: The penny-pinching. By way of derogation from previous financial plans EUR 625 million would be from 2020 to 2023 per year less. “We take no money,” he stresses, in the Ministry of Finance. But all would not participate because the budget does not escalate and the “black Zero” can be kept. No new debt – it says so in the coalition agreement, the CDU, CSU and SPD a year ago, have signed.
Wishlist will remain unfulfilled
For the Federal Finance Minister, Olaf Scholz, that is, that he must curtail the demands of his Ministerial colleagues. This is not easy, because of the fat years with the good tax revenue, many have become accustomed. On Wednesday, Scholz will present to the Cabinet the draft budget for 2020 in the corners. Total expenditure in the amount of 362,6 billion euros, i.e. 1.7% more than in 2019. It is about “setting the right priorities” and to strengthen social cohesion in Germany, according to the Ministry of Finance.
To distribute less: Federal Finance Minister, Olaf Scholz
39.6 billion euros will be invested by the Federal government in infrastructure, of which 16 billion. For the digital expansion of broadband service to four billion euros. In the social area families are set to benefit with small and medium incomes, for example, by a higher child allowance. A billion euros are provided for social housing. For Artificial intelligence are provided in the basic Parameters in addition to 500 million euros. Also for the planned tax incentives for research and development of Pension had been taken, the Ministry of Finance. The expenditure on Internal security set to rise to a record level.
Armed defense and development assistance
If it is assumed that the government will agree to the vertices, are certainly not a cheering sound. Above all, defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen (CDU) and development Minister Gerd Müller (CSU) will make long faces. Although the defence budget in 2020, increasing compared to 2018 to around 6.2 billion Euro, of the Leyen had, however, demanded much more.
Defence Minister von der Leyen wanted more money for their troops
In 2020, the so-called NATO is to be-ratio, which measures the share of defense expenditure to the gross domestic product (GDP), at 1.37 percent. In the further financial planning, you decreases by 2023, but again, to 1.25 percent, which is the value of 2018. In the process, German Chancellor Angela Merkel has promised the defence Alliance and, above all, the pressing U.S. President Donald Trump to boost the NATO-rate until 2024 to 1.5 percent.
Line-of-sight
In the Ministry of Finance to shrugs. Now it is only once the values for 2020, for the years then must be expected from time to time. “We”, they say. For more Etatzuwächse will, therefore, depend on how the economy and tax revenue develop.
Development Minister Müller of Germany obligations not in danger
This also applies to development aid. Minister Müller had complained already that his budget should be frozen at the level of 2019. The Ministry denied. 10.25 billion euros are estimated. The ODA-ratio, which measures the appropriations for public development cooperation, is stable at 0.51 percent of GDP. This is a record level, – stated in the Ministry of Finance. All the international commitments could be met.
Protest from many sides
But Müller also has supporters. The Greens refer to the budget parameters for the Federal Ministry for economic cooperation and development as a poverty certificate. “For tanks and drones, the new billion to be made loose while in the fight against Hunger and the international climate protection is being cut,” the green budget expert Sven-Christian Kindler.
From VENRO, the Association of development and humanitarian non-governmental organisations it is said that Germany deviates more and more from its international commitment to invest 0.7 per cent of GDP in development cooperation. “This is contrary to the agreements of the coalition agreement, and signals to our partners in the global South: you’re in the future on your own with crises, climate change and poverty,” criticized members of the VENRO Board Bernd Bornhorst. “This is a development of a political retreat into my shell.”