Theresa May speaks of legally binding Changes to the withdrawal Treaty, the EU calls it guarantees and clarifications. But enough of the agreement, in order to secure a majority in Parliament?
EU Commission President Juncker power of the British Prime Minister May be clear: “This is an add-on to exit the contract.”
Theresa May made it just before the crucial vote in the British house of Commons once again correctly dramatically: In the last Minute, she travelled late Monday night to Strasbourg, the EU Negotiators, however, from Changes to the controversial Irish Backstop, the reinsurance against a hard limit in Ireland. Both sides announced at the end of a success. But what exactly is new?
Has something changed?
Only lawyers with knowledge in international contract law will be able to appreciate the subtleties in Strasbourg agreed texts. The statements from both sides show that the importance of the new “common interpretation of instruments”, which is attached to the outlet Treaty and to be legally binding, in turn, is a matter of interpretation.
Theresa May talks of “major Changes at the outlet of the Treaty”, EU-Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker see “additional warranties”. According to the “best efforts” will strive for the EU is that the Backstop must not be used and you will be insured once again, that he should not apply permanently. A court of arbitration might take the British side even if you can prove the EU is a malicious violation of their contractual obligations.
Behind a barrage of legal language the political attempt by the EU to help the exit of the Treaty in the vote on Tuesday over the hurdle is here. And Juncker is very clear: “This is an add-on to exit the contract”. The EU had kept its ‘red lines’, the contract is not re-opened, and the Backstop is not fundamentally Questioned.
The so-called “Backstop” could be the sticking point of the Brexit negotiations: the important border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
First Reactions
In Parliament in London with David Lidington, a quasi-Deputy Prime Minister presented the agreement as an improvement and strengthening of the exit contract. He joined the decisive questions to a time limit of the Backstop, and a unilateral exit clause, both of which she had promised the Brexiteers. Many of them wanted to see the Backstop with the UK remaining in the EU customs Union altogether abolished.
The agreement of Strasbourg is now a sufficiently long ladder, so that the hard-liners from the palm can climb down to, in the Protest were increased? You can be enough, if you want to come down, here is the answer. Ian Duncan Smith, former Tory party leader and a leading Brexiteer said after all, you must check the agreement carefully now.
A similar cautious Outlook also, the North had Irish DUP, their decision will depend at the time of the vote on Tuesday night. You change your mind and agree with the reworked exit the contract, then you are likely to attract a majority of conservative Brexiteers. However, not all will join in the turn. Hardliner Steve Baker said Monday night in a radio interview, for example, that may compromise attack to be short and not sufficient.
And also, the Labour Party remains at their rejection: – Brexit-shadow Minister Keir Starmer recalled that May have have promised in January a significant Change in the exit contract, and it does not give anyway. And Labour MP Hilary Benn, Chairman of the Brexit Committee in the lower house, pointed out that the European Court of justice will continue to retain the final word on the legal dispute over the Backstop.
It could be enough for the majority
The prospects of Theresa May, Brexit Deal through to bring the house of Commons, on Monday morning, still Zero, they rose at midnight to maybe 60%. It seems to be now a Chance to admit that she gets on Tuesday evening a majority.
If May loses the vote in the lower house again, the Brexit on the 29. March for the time being, from
Much will depend on whether the advocate-General Geoffrey Cox changes his view of the law officially and not declared, the United Kingdom, with the new representations of the EU in danger to be permanently in the Backstop recorded. He should come even before the beginning of the debate to the house of Commons, and his interpretation of the altered legal situation.
Perhaps President of the EU Commission Jean-Claude Juncker contributes to the Brexiteers shift. He had stated in Strasbourg that “it is now” of the EU, there would be no third attempt for more Changes. If the deputies would not agree to the withdrawal of the contract again, it’ll be at the end no Brexit. And what a worse threat could be for the right wing of the Tories?
And if it goes wrong?
Theresa May loses the vote again, probably a Plan B to use. Thereafter, the members shall be decided on Wednesday if you want to exclude a No-Deal Brexit. And, in a second vote it would go to an extension of the deadline.
In the case, the Attempts by different sides would revive bowling Theresa May as soon as possible from office. A further defeat at the outlet of the contract would not survive politically as long as your opponents believe. And she has a lot, certainly more than friends. Also in your own Cabinet, rebels, and several contenders are sitting in front of their succession.
And one thing is for sure: If May loses the vote in the lower house again, the Brexit on the 29. March for the time being, and will be postponed for an indefinite period of time. The some in the deeply divided the UK for the biggest threat – and the other for the last Chance, the Brexit might still avert.