China already has a Plan B

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That can hold Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela is still in Power, he also thanks to the support of Russia and China. But at least in the case of Beijing, the question is for How long?

Here, even joyfully, China’s President: Xi Jinping and his Venezuelan counterpart, Nicolás Maduro

“Simon Bolivar was the great leader of Venezuela and of Latin America in the 19th century.Century, Mao was the father of the great of China in the 20th century. Century. I think the two have now at the beginning of the 21st century.Century”, – said the former Venezuelan President Hugó Chávez always had a penchant to decorate his Bolivarian Revolution with big words.

And how wrong the comparison of the freedom fighters in Latin America on the one hand, and the Chinese revolutionary mag on the other hand, historically, Chávez laid out nearly 20 years ago, together with President Hu Jintao, the Foundation for the relations between Venezuela and China. The Deal was very simple: we give you oil, you give us money in return, and gets geopolitical influence in the Region. And we get annoyed with the strategic partnership together with the USA.

Hugo Chávez, the former President of Venezuela, at the screening of Chinese military aircraft in the year 2010

Over 62 billion dollars in loans that China has granted Venezuela in the last decade, and was also an important factor for the political Survival of Chávez and his successor Nicolás Maduro. However, under the Maduro government, the repayments are faltering due to years of mismanagement, is still Caracas is about 20 billion dollars in debt. Now Beijing asks: we Get our money back? And we better have a Plan B in the bag, that is also a power means, the transition for the self-appointed transitional President Juán Guaidó consider?

What is China from Russia is different

“China is apparently pursuing a more cautious strategy than, for example, Russia, which also takes into account that there could be a change of government,” says the China expert Thomas Eder of Merics, a Think-Tank for China research in Berlin. While Russia had warned the United States on the offensive in front of a military Invasion and interference in the internal Affairs of Venezuela, held back China with appeals pointedly. Although Beijing Maduro assured to continue his support, but behind the Scenes, Chinese diplomats have a long time ago with representatives of Guaidó taken. “China thinks long-term as Russia,” says Eder.

“China will not blow the retreat” – China expert Klaus Eder of Merics to the influence of China in Latin America

Juan Guaidó the Chinese strategy seems to have been carefully look and wants to use them for his purposes. “In an exclusive interview with the ‘Hong Kong Morning Post’ he has promised to be a better Partner for China, with better economic development, which can also guarantee the repayment of the loans,” explains Eder, the media offensive of Guaidó. His opponent Maduro is no longer, however, even in the position to pay the debt back, let alone to deliver the oil.

Shift to the right in Latin America complicates China’s shops

Not only in Venezuela, also in Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Peru and Cuba, today’s China is the main trading partner – and the USA has been replaced as number One. Because Washington has lost more and more interest in Latin America, could Beijing make use of this vacuum. And can play decisive advantages: There are a few conditions for the granting of loans, and they are hardly linked to political conditions, because of the principle of Chinese foreign policy is still not to interfere. For countries that maintain an open Anti-Americanism, such as Venezuela, are an ideal Alternative.

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However, the left Anti-US Alliance in Latin America is crumbling, what complicates Beijing’s Plan to develop Latin America, at least. Argentina, Chile, Brazil and Peru are now led by right-wing governments, which have no big problems with drifting with the many still hated US trade. Only in Cuba, China’s Status is unchallenged as the most important trading partner.

China can live with any outcome in Venezuela

And now, if even Venezuela? “That would be a step backwards for China”, expert Thomas Eder, “but China was always in building strong economic relations differently polarized governments in the Region in a very pragmatic and flexible. No matter who is in Caracas, China has a lot of legs in the Region.”

Not only in the petroleum sector, also in the field of technology of China in Venezuela is active in a plant in Caracas

Beijing is thus more the role of the interested observer in the Venezuelan poker makes use, of can arrange with each result then, yet somehow. Nicolás Maduro, the for China is politically a win. Juan Guaidó takes over economically. And there is an actual Invasion of the USA, can present itself to China “as a great power,” said Thomas Eder, “what are the international legal rules of the game in contrast to the United States.”