The Bertelsmann study: The gap between the labour market and immigration


To control immigration and more, the Bertelsmann Foundation, in a study on the development of the German labour market. The digitization requires a skilled workforce. Where it is lacking at the moment.

The digitization does not destroy a total of as many jobs as one might fear. Many were lost, would have to bear but also to new, very demanding. To occupy you need it in the future, increased immigration from the European Union and other countries. This is the core statement of the Bertelsmann Foundation published a study, “immigration, and digitalization”, which has now been published.

The scenario is based on a total of 18 assumptions. They focus all on the digitisation of all sectors of the economy, the so-called “economy 4.0”. Around 80 percent of the value added in the manufacturing sector as well as in the services will take place in the future on a digital Basis, expect the authors.

For expect the writers going to digitize the manufacturing of his machines, so that the existing employees could use these machines only to a limited extent. The question of the necessary IT services would purchase the companies to a very high cost. The authors expect investment from the beginning, around 300 billion euros per year, increased annually by half a percent.

At the same time, the companies would increase their investment in training. Up to the year 2025 would be issued in favour of around 6.6 billion Euro in the manufacturing sector, and 18.8 billion in the services sector.

The German labour market for digitisation, prepared inadequate

For this development, the authors of the study see the German labour market inadequately prepared. The assumptions the authors made, would exacerbate an already observable development: “The biggest shortages are currently highly qualified; as measured by the available supply of labour, demand for graduates, Masters and technicians, is currently the largest.” This demand will increase in the coming years.

Even if the digitalization is proceeding more slowly, would be the situation on the labour market for skilled workers tense: Overall, the labour force will need between 2017 and 2035, to nearly 1.13 million workers to fall. This is a modest decline, the authors note. Increasing demand, however, you see the experts and specialists.

The prospects for workers with low qualifications, however, were already very unfavourable. So came in the fourth quarter of 2017 421 unemployed for around 100 open positions.

Immigration of skilled people is essential

Given the disproportion between requirements and offer, the authors assume that the supply of adequately skilled labour in the absence of immigration in the medium and long-term shrink – namely, about a third of the nearly 16 million people by the year 2060. “Even a realistic extent, a rising participation of the residents might slow down this decline only slightly – by 1.8 million relative to the year 2060.”
This challenge could only by immigration from the outside to cope with, according to the authors. What is needed is a migration gain of around 260,000 people a year.

More digitisation demands workers with ever-higher qualifications

However, its current composition does not comply with the future requirements. So, have doubled in the past eight years, the annual labour migration from third countries more than: Of the people, the countries came to an end in 2017 Non-EU-to Germany in order to find work, have more than a third had no vocational evidence.

Recommendation: immigration adapted to the labour market stronger

Against this Background, the study demonstrated “that the current migration policy, in spite of increasing labour migration of (highly) qualified personnel, lack of incentives in terms of future immigration.” The rising need for highly qualified is reflected in the current immigration structures currently hardly. It’s a similar look at the by Asylum-seekers motivated Migration: “when you Look at the most important asylum countries of origin, occupations, 65 per cent of the migrants in Helper.”

Immigration must therefore comply with the qualitative requirements of the labor market. Only an immigration of third-country nationals with suitable qualification prior to secure a quick Integration in the labour market and flexion shortage of skilled workers.

Immigration of unskilled persons, however, would make both sides. The result would be “immigrants who find no (adequate) Job, and companies can’t fill their Vacancies (continued)”. Thus, the mere Result of Immigration into inactivity or silence, the Reserve will be prevented, suggest the authors, would have to be provided to the migration policy right.

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