The Brexit and the German economy

0
307

Soft-or hard-Brexit – the ways in which the UK withdraws from the European Union, observed the German economy with great interest. The preparations are running.

43 percent of the approximately 1,300 industrial companies in Germany expect a hard Brexit. This is the result of a survey by the Munich-based ifo Institute. Three-fifths of the companies stated that they would be affected by a hard-Brexit, but in varying degrees. How strong is the impact on the industries, this also depends on the interweaving of the productions on the island and on the continent.

Auto industry

Worldwide, about 85 million to be approved for a new Car every year, two million of them in the UK. The Brexit weaken the paragraph in the country, but not so serious, says Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, an industry expert from the University of Duisburg-Essen: “If in England the car sales by a fifth should break, it will not blow you away, the German auto industry.” The producers are affected differently. Most BMW are likely to feel the Brexit. Because the residents of Munich will have on the British island of a production plant for the “Mini” (article image), also in Birmingham, close to the engine plant in Hams Hall, not only for the Mini, but also Moteren for the BMW 1-series and 3-series are produced.

Problems could be in the supply between the individual plants in continental Europe and the UK. Also, the Opel sister brand Vauxhall, which are now part of the French PSA group. PSA had closed the Bochum Opel plant, operates the plant in Ellesmere Port near Liverpool. Except for the probable problems in logistics, there are possible positive effects, says Dudenhöffer, If the British pound depreciated more will it cost in the UK the cars cheaper than in the Euro area – unless there are high customs duties would be due.

What remains of the financial centre of London, the “City”?

Banks

The financial sector is for the decision for the Brexit in focus: Because it is a Kingdom with a share of twelve percent of the gross domestic product is one of the most important sectors of the economy of the United Kingdom. London is the main financial centre in Europe is, however, non-European banks, which previously had its headquarters in London, and from there to your business in the other countries of the European Union want to operate, more and more after the Brexit. You must have a registered office in the EU.

The financial benefits of the space in Frankfurt.

The lobby Association “Frankfurt Main Finance” estimates that the banks 750 to 800 billion Euro could shift in the balance sheet volume to Frankfurt, much of it in the first quarter of this year. As a result, the balance sheet total of the German and international money houses would rise in Frankfurt to a fifth. Up to 8000 jobs would be shifted also in terms of several years to the Main estimates Gertrud Traud, chief economist of Helaba.

Looking For A Job? Theresa May during a visit to a textile factory in Ayr, Scotland

Chemistry/Pharmaceutical

How strong is the company in the chemical and pharmaceutical industry will be affected by the Brexit, it depends heavily on the design of the outlet. As in the other sectors of the economy, even a hard Brexit would cause major dislocations. The German chemical industry Association (VCI) anticipates only with duties of up to 200 million euros a year. VCI General Manager Utz Tillmann fear, in particular, different regulations, because without a transition agreement, all chemicals produced in the United Kingdom would have after a Brexit, no admission. You would have to be re-registered. That would be a considerable bureaucratic effort.

This also applies to pharmaceutical manufacturers: the trade between the EU and the UK is intensive, but also the interdependence of the companies of concern, says Siegfried Throm, managing Director of the Association of Research-based pharmaceutical manufacturers. Applicable in the manufacture and distribution of drugs, but also in the conduct of clinical trials within the EU member States and the United Kingdom.

Need to prepare for all eventualities: Airlines, between the UK and the EU on the road

Air traffic

Regulation is the major Problem in aviation: A hard Brexit would cripple the air traffic. Because UK airlines would lose your right, airports in the EU. Because they would then no longer part of the air transport internal market in the EU. This would include not only airlines, such as British Airways, Easyjet or Ryanair, but also German holiday airlines such as Tuifly and Condor, which is the majority of British shareholders. Industry experts such as Eric Heymann of Deutsche Bank, but confident: “I think it is relatively easy to solve this issue also in the case of a hard Brexit so that air links between the UK and continental Europe remain,” he says.

Mechanical engineering

The United Kingdom is for the German machinery and plant manufacturers is one of the most important export markets with a volume of over seven billion euros. In 2017, the decline in exports to the British Isles, the uncertainty caused by the Brexit had already clearly noticeable. Because of the devaluation of the pound to the German manufacturers, your Goods for the British customers are significantly more expensive. Here, too, the companies hope that it will not apply the exit of the British, to Unger. Nevertheless, says Thilo Brodtmann, managing Director of the industry Association VDMA says the company should prepare itself more to a “chaotic Brexit”.