On Tuesday, the Brexit-the Drama reaches its climax: The British Parliament votes on the EU Deal, Prime Minister Theresa May. An Overview of the possible consequences.
“Stop the Brexit-Chaos,” calling for demonstrators in London, last weekend
What the members exactly?
In the debate and the subsequent vote on Tuesday, it’s a question of whether the British Parliament to support the withdrawal agreement from the European Union. The agreement is the legally binding Text that sets out the conditions for exit from the EU. Regardless of the members agree on a statement of the relations of the United Kingdom, with the EU after Brexit be described in detail.
In order to bring their Deal with the EU by the Parliament, needs to be Prime Minister Theresa May 318 votes. However, you do not have the absolute majority in the 650-member Parliament. In addition, Brexit-hardline have announced in their own Conservative Party to vote against the Plan. In addition, the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which also supports Mays government, is opposed to the Deal with the EU. The reason is the so-called Backstop rules: The Plan provides for an open border between Northern Ireland (UK territory) and the EU-member Ireland when the United Kingdom and the EU cannot agree to December 2020 to a new free trade agreement. Both the DUP and the conservative hard-liners fear that the Backstop would bind the United Kingdom and the EU for an indefinite period of time with each other.
How does the vote work?
On 9. January began a five-day debate on Tuesday (15. January) ends. Subsequently, the members vote on various points: First of all, on Amendments to the government’s request, and the request itself.
Theresa May (centre) talks in December in the house of Commons – the British Parliament
The government has suffered in this procedure, two setbacks: The deputies have already agreed to an Amendment stating that the government may determine without the consent of the Parliament on financial issues. Thus, the impact of a possible No-Deal-scenarios are to be compensated without the involvement of Parliament.
Secondly, the members have determined the schedule, if May loses the vote and Brexit Plan B must present. Normally, the government would have 21 days to find an Alternative – May have to organise this within three days.
When is the result?
The vote begins in the late evening. The speaker of Parliament, John Bercow, will prompt according to the Protocol, supporters of the deal “Aye”, the enemy “No”. If he can’t assess whether a clear result, there is a kind of mutton jump process, the so-called “Division”. This method is using the call “Clear the lobbies!” (Makes the spaces!) announced.
During a “Division” need to decide the members, either for the “Aye Lobby or the No Lobby”. While the members go through the respective entrance to the house chamber, are logged your name, the vote counters then evaluate. The senior Tellers and the speaker of Parliament would then communicate the result. The whole process takes about 15 minutes.
What happens if May loses the vote?
The law stipulates that the government must notify within 21 days, as it goes on. But, as already explained, has shortened the Parliament of this period to three days. May has already announced that the United Kingdom of the EU on 29. March will leave without a Deal, should be rejected your proposal.
For May personally, this result could mean the end of their term of office as Prime Minister. The vote of no confidence within their own party it has survived in December, 117 of 317 members of Parliament voted against the Prime Minister and party Chairman. A defeat in the vote on Tuesday would increase the pressure on you, significantly, to withdraw.
What the Opposition says?
The Chairman of the Labour party, Jeremy Corbyn, has already announced that his party will vote against the EU Deal. As a next step, he introduced a motion of censure against the government. It might be followed by any new elections, if May is forced to withdraw. The Labour party should emerge as the winner of a possible re-election, would Corbyn negotiate the terms of a Brexit Deals with the EU, he said.
Jeremy Corbyn, is already thinking on elections
A second Referendum on the Brexit Corbyn is not excluded also. Many members of his party to prefer a further vote – but only if you can force a new election.
The Brexit plunges the UK into a constitutional crisis?
Some political observers do not call the Back-and-Forth in the Brexit as a dispute between the United Kingdom and the European Union, but as a fierce power struggle between the government and the Parliament. This fight can be a precursor to a constitutional crisis, because no one really knows how it goes and what happens next.
At the Moment there are none of the potential options for the majority:
- No Deal (trade restrictions were enacted, blockages in ports and scarcity of Goods, could be the result)
- a gentle Brexit, the UK would continue to bind them to the EU
- or a second Brexit Referendum.