Venezuela before the state of emergency?

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Nicolás Maduro will start his second term as Venezuelan President. The Opposition has boycotted the election and does not recognise the result as well as the EU, the USA and some other countries. There is Chaos threatens.

The first election of the President of Venezuela had won Nicolas Maduro 2015 nor democratic. But since then, the Parliament has been disempowered systematically and through a “constituent Assembly” was replaced, which consists of followers of Maduro. In the existing elected Parliament, the Opposition holds the majority, has also announced how other countries resistance for the case that Maduro will actually be sworn in. “The whole of the Lima group, for example, with the exception of Mexico, called on Maduro to take the oath,” said Ivo Hernández of the University of Münster. The Lima group to include, in addition to Canada about a dozen Latin American countries. You can also consider a travel ban for officials from Maduro’s state apparatus. And the elected Parliament wants to represent the country to the outside world, if Maduro tear the office. Maduro is, however, of all this unmoved.

“Which hand, the organization has got, if Maduro ignores the claim?” asks Ivo Hernández. “The instruments of diplomatic pressure is not enough to new autocracies like that of Maduro. How can we at the multilateral level, to intervene, if we decide, in the internal Affairs of States, to end their crises when they reach dimensions, as in Venezuela? Now, exactly that is the question.”

How to deal with a state of emergency?

“Venezuela is on the verge of the state of exception.” Then special rules would apply. Article 233 of the Venezuelan Constitution States, for example, that the Parliament can restore the democratic order in the country in the absence of a legitimate President. “But Maduro and his closest circles have the control over weapons, Connections to international terrorist networks and business connections to drug dealers. You can say that the state has been taken over by outlaws. It internal and external instruments must be used to disempower them, but there is in the Constitution no rules. How to deal with the state of emergency? The white at the Moment, no one,” emphasizes the expert from Münster.

Nicolas Maduro has been sworn-in in may 2018, for its second term, now he wants to take you

Optimistic Ana Soliz of the Helmut-Schmidt-Universität of the Bundeswehr. For the political scientist, it is necessary to isolate Maduro’s government, without, however, all channels of communication to cancel. If there were no dialogue options that could harden the government’s Position even further and you would probably act as if you have nothing to lose, says Ana Soliz. It proposes to create a Situation to bring in Maduro himself: “When he, his second term officially on 10. January starts would justify the illegality of his government to take legal steps in the Parliament for the restoration of the democratic order in Venezuela. The most sensible way to do this would be to wrest power from Maduro to appoint the President of the Parliament to the head of state and re-elections,” she explains.

Maduro, the military and the oil

“President Juan Guaidó has asked the armed forces to assist the Parliament,” said Nikolaus Werz, Professor at the University of Rostock. “In view of the privileges that many soldiers can enjoy since of the Bolivarian Revolution, however, it is very likely that the Uniformed Maduro will continue to support,” he adds. In the short term, Maduro could be ousted by “economic Implosion” “or but the rise in Oil prices pulls him out of the hopeless situation.”

The Economist Alejandro Márquez Velázquez from the Latin America Institute (LAI) in Berlin is of a different opinion: Even if the price of crude oil would suddenly rise, could benefit from the Venezuelan Oil industry from this development, because you lacked the qualified personnel. “The Same is true for other sectors of the national production. The skilled labour migration, it limits the possibilities of Venezuela to benefit from the potentially favorable economic conditions. And many of the exiles will return to the country if there are guarantees for change and political stability,” said Márquez Velázquez.