After the postponed vote in the lower house to the Brexit Deal, everything is open again. Theresa May hopes to make further concessions. However, the EU does not want to have to renegotiate. Possible scenarios around the Brexit.
It almost was as far as. It lacked only the vote in the lower house, then the ambiguity would have outlet around the EU, since more than two years, finally come to an end. But Theresa May had to understand that you stand a crushing defeat before. After all, for a ratification of the Brussels agreement you need 320 of 639 votes in Parliament. You can, however, expect only about 220 loyal party colleagues. The time was scarce, in order to convince about 100 other members to agree or to bring 200, with one abstention, to your with Brussels agreed a Deal to push through. And a defeat in the vote for the Brexit Treaty would have forced May possibly to cancel. Because it was too risky, she announced the postponement of the vote for an indefinite period of time. But what does this mean for the UK and the EU? The following scenarios are possible:
1. New Brexit Treaty
May hopes to follow-up negotiations in order to achieve improvements of the withdrawal agreement with the EU. The Prime Minister announced in the house of Commons in London, they will present their EU-colleagues, the “concerns” of members and “further assurances” from Brussels to negotiate. However, for a new-Brexit Deal with the EU, the EU would have to be willing to negotiate. Exactly, the EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker at the present time. On Twitter, he confirmed a planned Meeting with the British Prime Minister, in May in Brussels. Juncker is convinced that the existing Brexit Deal is the best and only possible one. You will talk about clarification, but there is no scope for renegotiations.
Also, EU Council President Donald Tusk rejects new negotiations. Although Tusk called a Brexit summit, to be held in the framework of the regular summit of the heads of state and government in Brussels, but makes it clear that renegotiations will not give it. Readiness to talk, which was nevertheless, in order to facilitate the UK’s ratification.
EU diplomats fear that open with renegotiations “Pandora’s box”. Because from a British claims, many claims could arise, not only from the British, but also from other EU countries.
Theresay May, speaks with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte in The Hague over possible concessions
The biggest hurdle in the existing agreements of the Backstop: The guarantee that with the Brexit, no new border controls between the UK’s Northern Ireland and a member of the EU Ireland will need to be introduced. The existing scheme provides for the whereabouts of the UK as a Whole in the European customs Union until a new agreement solves the Problem.
2. Hard Brexit
This is probably the most dreaded possibility. Because it should come to a hard Brexit without agreement with the EU, threatening 29. March 2019, all of the relationships of 45 years of EU membership suddenly. It may come to that, if May fail in the Parliament and to the EU renegotiations continue to reject.
The only way out in this scenario would be the Emergency agreements with the EU, in order to avoid a complete mess. Some regulations in the area of air transport, stay and visa issues, and financial services could be extended by a few months.
In London, thousands of British in of “Brexit Betrayal of the Rally demonstrated” for a rapid EU exit
In the case of a No-Deal-Brexit, the United States will stand by Britain. US Secretary of state Mike Pompeo has made May aid for Trade, should failure of an EU agreement. The United Kingdom is for the time after the leaving the EU on a trade agreement with the United States. The existing contract complicates this Option.
3. New Referendum with the possibility of an exit from Brexit
In the UK, the desire for a new referendum, getting louder and louder. Such a fate would be in the EU is still possible. May refuses to hold a Referendum but categorically, although some would be from their party as well as opposition parties for a new vote.
However, this Option is rather unrealistic, because the time for the preparation of such a referendum is missing. A minimum of five months would be needed, hardly any time up to the withdrawal date at the end of March.
4. Displacement of the outlet
A further variant would be the exit date on the 29. To move in March 2019. Then it creates air for a second Referendum, new elections or renegotiations. But postponed is not abandoned – to a long-term solution to the UK and the EU do not come around. And the time is limited, because already the end of may 2019 European elections. The withdrawal date is moved, it would have to be elected British members of Parliament yet again. You may need to then, a few months later, after the end of the Brexit-postponement, your Items lose.
5. Norway-Plus
A Plan B would be the “Norway Plus” model, that could get cross-party majority. Following the example of Norway, the United Kingdom would remain in this model in the European internal market. Like Norway, the UK would then be a member of the European economic area, but not in the EU. In addition, a customs Union could be decided by Brussels.