In the efforts to reach a peace Treaty with Russia, Japan has changed its tactics, surprisingly. However your skillful thrust could go because of the constraints on the Russian side, into the Void. Martin Fritz, Tokyo.
Almost completely supplied mixed tank on the coast of the Kuril island of Kunashiri (archive)
So far, a peace Treaty between Japan and Russia on four small Islands in the Kuril chain North of Japan’s main island of Hokkaido failed. The Soviet Union had annexed the sparsely populated Islands at the end of the Second world war, Russia considers this to be legally binding. However, Japan insists on their return. Before that, there could be no peace Treaty between Moscow and Tokyo.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has undertaken to cut the Gordian knot to the Islands to beat. Because good relations with Russia to strengthen Japan in the struggle with China for hegemony in East Asia. So far, Abe continued to move Russian President Vladimir Putin with generous economic aid to the return of the Islands. Two years ago, the two sides agreed on direct support for the disputed Islands, not advanced, however.
Tactical u-turn in Singapore
Therefore, Abe took place on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit in Singapore at the age of 23. Meeting with Putin u-turn tactical. On Wednesday he agreed with Putin to accelerate the negotiations on a peace Treaty on the Basis of the Joint statement of Russia and Japan of 1956. The Soviet Union had agreed that two of the four Islands, Chabomai (jap.: Habomai), and Shikotan (Shikotan) to Japan to be returned once a peace Treaty is concluded.
During his first term, Putin had signaled to Japan, to this statement. The now wants to use Japan to get the cow after decades of Back-and-Forth at last from the ice. “President Putin and I will bring this matter to an end”, said Abe. Already at the beginning of 2019, he wants to negotiate with Putin in Russia again and in the ideal case, before the upper house election in Japan in July, an agreement to announce.
A Face-Saving Solution
Specifically, this would look like so that Japan and Russia conclude a long-awaited peace Treaty. Then Japan returned to the two in Hokkaido and the adjacent islets. At the same time, both sides would affirm, to agree on their ownership claims on the other two Islands, Kunashir (Kunashiri) and Iturup (Etorofu) at a later date.
Japan’s national would not have found a more conservative head of government, in his view, a face-saving solution for the duration of the dispute around the Islands, because Japan abandons the two other Islands on the paper, even if they would, in fact, remain in the possession of Russia. In 2001, Japan’s Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori with Vladimir Putin had made during his first term, made a similar attempt, however, had to come back later.
Japan takes the Initiative
“With the renewal of the Two-Islands-solution Japan takes the issue into their own hands, after Putin in September, Abe and his ‘a condition of peace-free’ contract had been surprised,” commented the German political scientist Sebastian Maslow of the University of Tokyo. The proposal will show the willingness to compromise from Abe. “So he seems to have his foreign policy is the topic to do in his last term, is still Historic,” said the German expert on Japan. An Insistence on the return of all four Islands would jeopardize the timely conclusion of a peace Treaty.
However, Japan has made this statement, perhaps without the Russian host. On Thursday, President Putin said to Russian journalists, the Declaration of 1956 will meet no statements about the legal circumstances of the island, the return and the appropriate procedure. With regard to the question of Sovereignty, Putin has dampened the Japanese hope for rapid progress in the Kuril Islands dispute. In the past, the Russian President had stressed several times that a solution requires years of confidence-building.
Putin and Abe at the Meeting in Singapore
Domestic political constraints for Putin
In its reporting, the Japanese media stressed that the remarks by Putin were directed especially to the native audience. The increase in the retirement age and the poor economic situation would have Putin’s popularity reduces, wrote in the financial newspaper Nikkei. Therefore, his foreign policy will focus on a “strong Russia”. A return of two Islands, threatening to damage his Approval ratings. Also, Japan’s publicly expressed expectations for progress represents a risk, warned of the sheet.
The real hurdle, however, is somewhere else probably. Putin could engage in perhaps to the return of two Islands. Japan would this Meet is expected to be through generous economic assistance to the far Eastern regions of Russia to honor it. But it seems hard to imagine that Russia could agree to further negotiations on the Status of the two remaining Islands. In this point, the Japanese fall back position is so far unclear. Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga noted that Japan runs out of after a peace Treaty, to maintain the sovereignty over two Islands.