Sierens China: together

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At the ASEAN summit in Singapore, Beijing is trying to bind the Southeast Asian countries more closely to itself. Also Europe’s position in the global power structure is on the game, writes Frank Sieren.

You want to apply, get rarely? At the ASEAN summit in Singapore, Donald Trump sent this year, only his Deputy. Perhaps the memories of the past year sitting in front of him still deep in the bone: at that Time, the US President made all around the Meeting, his longest trip abroad. After twelve days, he not only came back empty-handed, but left behind on the world stage is also under the impression that Washington has no strategy to China’s rise and the resulting global shift of power to oppose something Substantial.

To the summit of the ten countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, China’s Premier Li Keqiang, Russian President Vladimir Putin, India’s Prime Minister Narendra modi and Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo came in addition to Mike Pence Abe. Not the States of Western Europe. They closed already in mid-October at the Asia-Europe summit in Brussels on a free trade agreement with Singapore – the first real free trade agreement between the EU and an ASEAN state. It would be for the Export Nation of Germany and the role of the EU in the world is very important to network closely with the ASEAN countries. The long and tough pre-prepared agreement with the city – state, the first discussions started already in 2009 – therefore can be only a beginning

DW-columnist Frank Sieren

ASEAN is one of the largest economic areas

The Southeast Asian community of States forms with 635 million inhabitants, is now a single market that is already today the sixth largest economy in the world, with an annual growth of around five percent. By 2030, it wants to upgrade to the fourth – largest global economy after the U.S., China and the EU. In addition to the small but economically important Powerhouse of Singapore, the population to belong to the richest Muslim country of Indonesia as well as Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, Vietnam, Myanmar, Brunei, Laos, and Cambodia. China’s rise to the most significant regional the ASEAN countries to consider, depending on the weather situation as an opportunity and as a threat. Beijing is taking, unlike Europe, every opportunity – even if the politicians sometimes, the Wind blows in the face. This also includes negotiations on Regional economic partnership (RCEP). The strong Beijing-sponsored agreement to unite the countries of ASEAN with Japan, South Korea, China, India, Australia and new Zealand to a giant free trade block which is then approximately a third of the global GDP.

Originally RCEP from Beijing was as a response to the Pacific free trade agreement, TPP, designed by the Washington, the people’s Republic had excluded. Trump sawed off TPP, but from the beginning of his term in office. Since then, the power conditions have shifted in favour of Beijing. The loss of trust, the Trump in Asia triggered by the termination of the TPP, he was able to repair it, and also don’t want to. On the contrary, trade, and war is pushing the ASEAN countries more and more into the arms of Beijing. The people’s Republic and the United States are the main customers of the South East Asian exports. Suffering of the Chinese and American economies in the war because of the Trade, the ASEAN countries suffer. On the other hand, opportunities arise, by, for example, more and more Chinese companies are shifting their production subsidiaries in the neighbouring countries, to avoid US customs duties. “We want to tackle the challenges of unilateralism and protectionism,” said China’s Vice Minister of foreign Affairs Chen Xiaodong at the beginning of the summit. The RCEP agreement will promote regional Integration and an open, rule-based trading system.

Bilateral talks between the United States and Indonesia on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit

The United States, especially on military strength

Washington’s strategy for the indo-Pacific provides meanwhile to bring with allies Japan and Australia as a counterweight to the increasingly powerful China in the Position. Also, China’s arch-rival India to play a major role. If Delhi can be so easy to vicarious agents of the United States, however, is questionable. Especially since the U.S. is to continue to have a strong military presence in the Indo-Pacific region. Washington recently announced to want to be around US $ 300 million for military and military-political purposes invest. For infrastructure and connectivity projects in the US, it is only 113 million dollars. Compared with the immense sums of money, spent by Beijing for its “New silk road”, is vanishingly small. The idea of Trump Administration: you want to beat the long-lasting territorial disputes in the South China sea to drive a wedge between the ASEAN countries and China. This is not likely to succeed.

Brussels would be well advised, and its partnerships in Asia to expand and to unite in the long term a comprehensive EU-Asean agreement. Yet Europe has to offer technologies and products that will be sought in Asia. The Europeans would be received with open arms. Because no one in Asia wants to put everything on the China map. However, Brussels would have to jump over his shadow and be willing to compromise. In Thailand, for example, the free trade agreement is on ice, because the EU does not want to negotiate with the military government. Now there are Considerations, to reconsider this attitude, after Beijing and Bangkok approached. The EU needs to change in Asia even more than in the past on Realpolitik.

Our columnist Frank Sieren has lived for more than 20 years in Beijing.