The duration of the Boom of the German economy, a risk of service interruption. Economists expect the third quarter with a decline in the gross domestic product of 0.1 percent compared to the previous quarter.
The a on Friday published the survey conducted by the news Agency Reuters, which had surveyed 20 economists showed. It would be the first Minus since the beginning of 2015. In the second quarter in Europe’s largest economy had increased by a strong 0.5 percent. A first official estimate by the Federal Statistical office released on Wednesday.
“The German economy contracted in the third quarter, after three and a half years of continuous Expansion slightly,” Commerzbank Economist Ralph Solveen sure. Determine the problems of the auto industry are likely to have been in the transition to the new exhaust test procedures, WLTP, because the companies have reduced their production significantly. This is likely to have reduced the GDP by about a quarter of a percentage point.
“In the final quarter, it is likely to go up significantly,” expects Jens-Oliver Niklasch of the Landesbank LBBW. Most had early indicators close. Big jumps, most experts do not expect. “The Phase of economic boom is over, the economy enters in the Phase of over-ripeness,” Niklasch.
The also economic ways. They lowered their forecast for growth next year to 1.5 percent, while it should reach by the end of the year to 1.6 percent. The panel of experts is more pessimistic than the Federal government that says, for both years, 1.8 percent advance.
U.S.-punitive tariffs, rising US interest rates and the slowdown in the global economy your burden on the German export
Companies are taking a more sceptical in the future
Also, the German companies are adjusting to a slowdown in the global economy. Only 27 percent expect an improvement in the economic development of their respective international locations, such as from the on Friday published the autumn survey of the member companies of the German chambers of Commerce abroad. In the spring, 40 per cent looked to the positive to the front. The number of farms, the expected deterioration, increased from ten to 25 percent.
“There’s no question that The world economy loses momentum,” said the President of the German chamber of industry and Commerce day (DIHK), Eric Schweitzer. “Our internationalized German economy is affected directly.” The Association expects this year with a growth of the German exports of 2.8 per cent, after it had initially expected a Plus of 6.5 percent. “What sounds only once to arithmetic, translated means more than 55 billion euros less in the order books in this country,” said DIHK foreign trade chief Volker Treier. In the coming year, even just for a Plus of 2.5 percent was expected. “Iran sanctions, Brexit, state of the world trade organization, the WTO, the penal duties, the trade dispute between the United States and China, between the USA and Europe – it can be a dizzy, if you look currently on the world economy.”
Calls for a reduction in corporate taxes: gcic CEO Eric Schweitzer
Call for tax cuts
The DIHK therefore calls on the Federal government to strengthen the competitiveness of the domestic economy. “A tax reform is urgently needed,” called Schweitzer. Thus, the solidarity surcharge should be eliminated completely, the company tax rate be reduced by about five points to 25 percent. Better tax incentives for research would be advisable, even a bureaucracy could provide removal for relief. “A faster Expansion of broadband and electricity networks is also in demand.”
In all Parts of the world the economic expectations of the companies have decreased, with the exception of North America. “Here are the special boom due to the tax reform in the United States still felt,” said the DIHK. Meanwhile, half of all farms looks at the economic and political framework conditions as the biggest risk for the foreign business. A quarter fear disadvantages due to trade barriers. “The tensions between China and the US weigh on the global markets and our businesses,” said Schweitzer. The world’s two largest economies, coating each other with higher duties.
tko/qu (rtr, dpa)