In the case of the missing Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi would have the potential to be a economic quake trigger. However, it is probably nothing will happen.
You can look in these days on the price of Oil, the following is clear: Neither the US nor the Europeans are going to mess with Saudi Arabia, because the government may be a critical journalist is killed.
Because the price of Oil, the meter deflects normally, when any signs of uncertainty, only shrugged briefly, since then, the Journalist Jamal Khashoggi disappeared at the beginning of October in the Saudi Embassy in Istanbul.
“Currently the market participants expect no consequences by the case of Khashoggi. Otherwise the swings in the Oil price would be much greater,” said Eugen Weinberg, commodity analyst of Commerzbank, to DW.
Saudi Arabia: Oil price at $ 400?
There was no lack of dramatic scenarios. US President, Donald Trump had initially announced a “hard penalty”. The Saudis responded with the warning that they would use the Oil price as a weapon to protect themselves against sanctions.
“The consequence of US sanctions against Saudi Arabia would be an economic Disaster that would shake the entire world,” wrote Turki Aldakhil, Director of the Saudis controlled news channel Al Arabiya. The Oil price could rise from currently around $ 80 per barrel up to $ 400, so Aldakhil.
A five-fold increase in the price of Oil would actually be a shock to the world economy – even greater than during the oil crisis in 1973.
And yet, the commodity markets remained unimpressed. It was not simply in the interest of Saudi Arabia to disappoint its customers with sharply rising Oil prices, says Analyst the vineyard. “That would only accelerate the switch to alternative forms of energy.” And in the USA widely used in Oil production through Fracking would be worth at a high price of Oil even more.
The Case Of Khashoggi: “A Trifling Matter”
Conversely, the markets seem to be the United States and the Europeans not to trust, to want the relations to Saudi Arabia because of a journalist’s murder threaten. Also Trump is expressed now much more cautious.
“Until now, the reaction of the US President was very moderate. He has dismissed the case, Khashoggi as a trifling matter,” said Weinberg.
The European Union also holds back with criticism of Saudi Arabia is striking. “I can’t imagine that the Europeans and take the risk. The market does not expect, anyway. Otherwise, the price of Oil would be not 80 dollars, but significantly higher,” says the Analyst. “The likelihood that there will be only minor sanctions against Saudi Arabia, see the market participants close to Zero.”
Saudi Arabia receives around a third of its imports from Europe, 13 percent from North America. There are so quite a few possibilities for sanctions. But apparently Europeans and Americans do not want to lose the Land as a good customer.
Protests in front of the Embassy of Saudi Arabia in Washington, DC
Billions device for war
Last year, Trump was delighted during a visit to the Saudi capital over a military order of 110 billion dollars.
“Everyone wanted to have this job. Russia wanted him to, China wanted him, we got him,” said Trump last weekend, the US CBS channel. And added that he would not use the Deal as a means of pressure. “I don’t want to lose a job, and I would not endanger jobs.”
German politicians do not speak so open-hearted as Trump. But this year alone, the Federal government’s arms exports to Saudi has approved Arabia for more than 400 million euros, although the Saudis are involved in the war in Yemen. French companies had sold in the previous year armaments for a billion to the Saudis.
During his visit to Riyadh in may 2017 Trump was happy about armor shops
Investment as a political strategy
Add to this that Saudi Arabia is in the process of its economy to be less dependent on Oil. Around 90 percent of state revenues come from the Oil industry, as 90 percent of exports.
In order to create fit for the future and new Jobs for the growing population, which puts the country on the development of new industries and infrastructure.
“These are Mega projects with billions of Euros”, says Thomas Richter from Hamburg’s Giga Institute of middle East studies. “German industry expects it to, of course, jobs,” the researchers for the DW.
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Saudis plan huge Mega-City
Moreover, Saudi Arabia wants to expand its sovereign wealth funds PIF, by 2030 it should be according to the plans of the government of the largest in the world. The “Public Investment Fund of Saudi Arabia” will now have 250 billion dollars, and last went on a big shopping tour.
“The Saudis are committed to buying about strategic investments in Western countries, political influence,” said Stephan Roll, one of the researchers at the Foundation for science and policy on the Middle East. “The key enterprises, but also investment companies like the Blackstone group in the United States, in which Saudi Arabia, in the meantime, with about 20 billion US dollars.
The Vision Fund of the Japanese Tech group Softbank, the Saudis were involved, with approximately 45 billion dollars, at the U.S.-drive service provider Uber with $ 3.5 billion. Five percent of the US electric car manufacturer Tesla owned by the PIF.
Want with the Saudis talk: Siemens-Chef Joe Kaeser
The German view on the money
Nevertheless, even the heads of Blackstone and Uber have cancelled their participation in an investors ‘ conference in Riyadh, as well as many other managers from the USA and France. Siemens CEO Joe Kaeser was by far not rings.
“If we stop to talk with countries where people are missing, we can stay home, because we can talk to anyone,” said Kaeser.
It wouldn’t be the first Time that the business interests of companies to influence the German policy. Just recently, Siemens has opened in Egypt for three gas-fired power plants in the vicinity of Cairo, as part of a major order of more than eight billion euros.
“The German Egypt policy has changed as of 2014, instrumental, and was the Sisi Regime is very sympathetic to the fact that Siemens has made this giant power plant deal,” says DGP-researchers-and-Roll. “That was the biggest single order in the history of the company.”
Also, rolling is not expected, therefore, that the case Khashoggi, Saudi Arabia will have economic consequences.