Brexit: The risk of a crash remains

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After the Failure of the Brexit talks is a success at the EU summit on Wednesday is questionable. A No-Deal-Brexit threat at the end? Theresa May will stay in any case, hardly any options, and the laughter of your party friends.

“The British need more time” – EU negotiators, the diplomats of the member countries informed on Sunday evening about the Failure of the Brexit talks in Brussels and the preliminary From for the top choreography on Wednesday. It was planned that you could at least reach agreement on the main points of the outlet agreement, then the summit would be convened a special meeting for November and would have won again four weeks to Negotiate. In this period, especially the political Declaration should be drawn up that deals with the future of the relationship between Brussels and London. But the strategy seems not to be working. Everything is in order?

May can draw on Wednesday a Joker

The British Brexit-Minister Dominic Raab left on Sunday evening in Brussels. The Meeting of the Sherpas, the closest adviser to the EU heads of government on Monday night is cancelled, as well as a pre-decision of the Minister for Europe on Tuesday. No consent-capable paper for the chiefs on Wednesday on the table. In Brussels, cannot at present be nothing more moving, even if the speaker of the EU insurance Commission: “We are working hard to reach an agreement”. He also acknowledges at the same time, that the contingency planning for a No-Deal Brexit ahead.

Brussels is, the British after the EU summit in the rain?

The key to the solution is now in London. It seems unlikely, but it is not excluded that Theresa May announced itself on Wednesday evening at Dinner with your colleagues for a breakthrough. In doing so, you would have to go far tale credible to you than the failed Meeting in Salzburg. And for Macron, Merkel and co. the Basis of an agreement can only be replaced by the text of the exit contract, the elaboration of the negotiators in Brussels recently. May can not come up with totally new demands, it would have to be a piece from the well-known solution catalog.

What is on the table?

For months, the agreement on the outlet is blocked to the contract by the Northern Ireland question. It goes further to prevent a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Britain had signed in the previous year, the re-solution of the EU provisionally, but since the ocean is explained. Theresa may’s recent proposed solution is to leave the whole Kingdom for the time being in the customs Union and to bind the North of Ireland to the rules of the EU internal market. Provisionally, mind you, because, in principle, the Prime Minister must leave the customs Union. This in turn is actually to your red lines.

The Status of the intra-Irish border remains one of the main points of dispute in the Brexit negotiations

But this obstacle will only be taken much later. You will retire from the customs Union, says May, if there is a solution for Northern Ireland. The Problem is that you can provide no clear end date, as it challenge your Brexiteers. You defined the end as the date of conclusion of a trade agreement with the EU, and includes a completely smooth border traffic. The EU considers this to be impossible in principle, the solution of the timeline would therefore be an Illusion. Mays attempt, the Irish Prime Leo Varadkar Zugestädnisse from the border issue, today hit fail. He stated categorically that he would not insist on a viable back-fallösung as adopted by the EU.

The last one had designed a kind of revision clause in order to circumvent the Problem. This was not enough for the Prime Minister to sell the Plan at home. The negotiations are stuck, so once more.

May is an all-in-revolt threatened

How difficult is the Situation of Theresa May in her own party and across the political spectrum, in fact, showed up at a debate in the house of Commons in the late afternoon. As May your opinion with “We are approaching the final stages of Brexit negotiations” and “We need cool, calm heads” began, contrary to broke her mocking laughter. You think that an agreement is in the next few weeks still be reached, the government tried to head to reassure their members and the Public. And she called it “frustrating” that the remaining differences with the EU dealt with a scenario, “both sides hope that it never comes to fruition,” and that would only be temporarily effective.

May says the so-called “Backstop”, the legal solution to prevent a hard border in Northern Ireland permanently. a basic condition for an agreement on a withdrawal agreement from the EU side. The unionist DUP denied the consent to any solution that Northern Ireland is treated differently than the Rest of the Kingdom. And since a recent change in the law which is even illegal, which makes it difficult to a creative solution.

The head of government suggested to leave the UK as a whole for so long in the customs Union until a final solution is found. The drives the hard Brexiteers on the palm, and a half-dozen conservative deputies demanded, therefore, the assurance, that such a scheme should have an end date. Which, in turn, the EU does not agree, because a temporary re-insurance would be worthless.

Look into the Void: Theresa May visited an Initiative in the fight against loneliness, which has to do however nothing with the Brexit to

May was pressed to answer, and assured the Parliament one after the other Times, the solution will arise from the future relationship with the EU. This agreement will also bring to the Brexit smooth flow of trade, so that the “Backstop” for Northern Ireland was needed. She explained to the deputies that her Chequers-Plan Basis, will be of this future relationship. The EU had this proposal, with a single market for goods and a limited customs Union, long since rejected. However, diplomats were last, not to conceal, May complicate the “sale” of a deal at home.

What the British Prime Minister promised in London, was a sham. Every Insider knows that it can not give the APR promised to trade without controls and restrictions in accordance with the Brexit, if it keeps to its red lines and the customs Union and the internal market leaves. Many of the members seem to follow the intricate details of the negotiations correctly. But one thing was clear: From all sides of the house May rejection and mistrust in the opposite beat. As you want to bring in this situation in maybe two months, a Brexit Deal by the Parliament, is not seen.

The preparations for the rigors of Brexit continue

On both sides of the channel, prepare for a hard Leaving without an agreement. EU Council President Donald Tusk says in his invitation letter for the summit: “We must prepare ourselves for a No-Deal scenario, it is more likely than ever before.” For the Europeans the new controls, and border posts, customs forms and many more legal consequences means. In addition, the most affected regions need to be prepared in the North of France, Belgium and the Netherlands, politically and economically. You must talk with companies and potential catchment plan measures, on the European side, there is a No-Deal Brexit would have a significant economic impact.

British motorways in the event of a hard Brexit to gigantic truck Parking be?

All the exporters and transport companies need to plan now for the case of X, as well as companies with cross-border supply chains. The list of the resulting problems is endless, on the British side of the M26 motorway in Kent as a future truck Parking is provided. Dramatic consequences for air transport and the operation of the Eurostar may be averted by the transitional arrangements before the 29.3.2019. It is clear, however: If in this week no possible agreement on a divorce agreement looms at the latest by mid-December, must get out of the EU, as well as the British side in frenetic activity.