The most Important to the Bavarian state election at a Glance: What has changed? Who are the winners and losers are? What are the consequences could this have for the Federal government?
1. CSU loses their special role
The CSU, Angela Merkel’s sister party in Bavaria, has lost its absolute majority in the state Parliament in Munich. However, the losses were not as high as had been prophesied in the polls. Nevertheless, the Christian social are now in need of a coalition partner. Over many decades, was not usually the case.
2. Black-on-black coalition in Bavaria probably
Probably, there will be a black-and-black coalition between the CSU and the Free voters (FW) – this is a regional and conservative voters Association, the CSU is politically very close to it. A coalition of CSU and the FW would have to overcome any major substantive differences, and could work out well. It has another advantage from the point of view of the CSU. At the Federal level, the CSU forms, together with Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU), a coalition of community. Since the FW does not occur nationwide, must take the CSU, there is comparatively less consideration to their Bavarian coalition partners.
3. AfD strongly, but below the national average
The right-wing populist AfD has become – almost – double digits, but their choice of destination remained. The nationwide survey values are higher. Officially, the AfD says it’s because of the competition from FW. Unofficially, it is said, the poor internal condition of the land Association to carry the blame. Because the AfD Bayern could not agree on a top candidate, because it is disunited. Nevertheless, it is now the 15th country in Parliament, the AfD to move in. In two weeks, elections in the Federal state of Hessen, then the AfD will sit well in all 16 state parliaments.
4. Green on the way to a new people’s party
Mathematically, a coalition with the Greens would be possible, which could double your election result. The party has to get many votes from the traditional people’s parties, CSU and SPD. In many large cities it is now the strongest force. The Greens develop in Bavaria, as in many other Western provinces, to a strong, new voice of the mid – and thus a competition for CSU and SPD. Mathematically, a coalition of CSU and the greens would have a majority. However, in terms of content between the two parties, especially at the base – yet worlds apart.
5. CSU-tip under pressure
A staff discussion after the “big blue eye” trying to make the CSU not to pay. CSU-Prime Minister Markus Söder’s only been half a year in office. Horst Seehofer, party Chairman and Federal Minister of the interior in the Cabinet of Angela Merkel, is elected until the end of 2019 as the Chairman of the party. Both Söder and Seehofer, want to continue. Söder, however, has long been of interest in the Post of party Chairman. Whether at the CSU-the Basis of the claim to the personal consequences of the election defeat did not, however, stronger than in the party leadership, must be awaited.
Are responsible for the outcome of the elections: party Chairman Horst Seehofer (left) and Bavaria’s Prime Minister Markus Söder
6. Not a good result for Angela Merkel
Also, the Position of the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, anyway the party is weakened internally, has now become something worse. How bad, time will show. The decisive factor will be how much the loser will push the debt to Berlin. And whether the staff discussion will flare up in the CSU or not.
7. Gloomy prospects for the social Democrats
For the social Democrats (SPD), the choice is also a great defeat. Although the SPD was never particularly strong in the conservative Bavaria, but a single-digit result, as it is now is historically bad. Your group in the land Parliament is only the fifth-strongest.
8. Elections in the Federal?
In the discussion of the reasons for the choice of low CSU and SPD point to the poor Performance of the Federal government. The dispute over the issues of refugee policy and Internal security was counterproductive. Therefore, it was right after the election, also from the CDU, the government coalition in Berlin must now work together better. Especially the SPD chair Andrea Nahles wants a Change – she even plays with the collapse of the coalition in Berlin, which would have new elections. Especially the left wing of the SPD, rejected from the beginning a coalition with the CDU/CSU. However, the SPD has nationwide currently even worse than at the last Federal election. This makes a new election from the SPD point of view, less attractive.
9. FDP on consolidation course
The liberals of the FDP have made it almost to the Bavarian Parliament, and are now represented in ten parliaments. The FDP was a coalition partner of the CSU. Even now, both parties could form a coalition, not need to it but. Because a two-coalition of the CSU and the FW would have the majority.
10. Classical national parties under pressure
The results of the election confirmed a Trend: The traditional people’s parties lose, as in other European States, to consent. The political margins to win – such as the AFD, but also new parties – like the Greens.