On Monday, the demilitarised buffer zone could take in Syria’s Idlib shape. If Damascus and the rebels holding to the agreements. The Central questions in the Overview.
To which area does it go?
It’s going to be a strip of 15 to 20 kilometres wide in the last remaining rebel stronghold of Idlib. In this Zone, various Anti-controlled until a few days ago-Assad militias strategically important roads. They operated there, artillery positions, from which the Syrian army was fired. The demilitarization plan, in a first step, these heavy guns be withdrawn, which is surprisingly well done. 15. October should have left, according to the Plan, the last of the rebels to the strip.
What is the purpose of the buffer zone?
First and foremost, a large-scale attack by the Syrian army to prevent the province of Idlib. There are three million civilians live. Thousands would flee, die, or would have, if Assad’s troops conquer the city, as happened, for example, in Homs and Aleppo. The UN fears a humanitarian disaster. And if the Assad army attacks in spite of the current agreement, could civilians to flee in the buffer zone and humanitarian supplies.
Deduction: A gun on the way out of the buffer zone
Doing all the militias?
The will show up. The withdrawal of heavy weapons anyway, it works mostly well. If the fighter disappear on a nationwide basis, is still unclear. Because some of the Islamist groups in a plan: For many of the radical former IS or Al – Qaeda-fighters is a betrayal of a withdrawal simply. Most of the other rebels, but in the withdrawal from the buffer zone, a Chance to regroup elsewhere and for a possible future defense battle dig in.
Who had the idea?
The Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin. In mid-September, the two had an agreement. Although they are standing on different sides, but both are one in that they have no interest in a major offensive. Erdogan fears that hundreds of thousands fleeing Syrians in the close to Turkey and Putin is not afraid of the military risks for its soldiers. He also does not want to make the newfound friendship with Turkey at risk. Turkish and Russian soldiers should monitor later in the buffer zone.
What Assad of a demilitarisation?
Nothing. The dictator would probably want to do most immediately Idlib to the ground and the last of the rebels off. But he has to rely on his Russian brother-in-arms. Without Putin, Assad would no longer be troops in Power today. So he does gnashing of teeth, what Putin wants. He has, however, made it clear that he holds the buffer zone is only for temporary.
Germany supported the buffer zone?
Absolutely. Because there is no better Alternative. The Federal government supports any kind of ceasefire and demilitarization in the conflict-affected areas. Even if it is just snapshots. Because the only way to gain time and space for further policy initiatives. In addition, Germany provided several million euros for humanitarian aid for the residents of Idlib. Only a military Intervention in the conflict has described Minister of the Meuse so far as “unrealistic”.
Is there a political solution for Syria?
All too soon, probably not. The location is procedure. Putin wants Assad to remain in Power, because he only sees as Russia’s influence in the Region is guaranteed. The West does not want to get rid of Assad on the loved one, know but how. Russia and the Europeans, however, have something in common: they want as quickly as possible an end to the war. Moscow will grow the cost of the foreign insert is gradually taking over the head; Europeans and Turks want an end to the refugee flow from Syria. That is why Angela Merkel is pushing in a summit. You want Russia, Turkey, France and Germany put together in October, and prospects for Peace.