The state election in Bavaria in Germany, new political turmoil. Angela Merkel’s coalition partner CSU could set up. It is the end of interior Minister and CSU boss Horst Seehofer is threatening. And then?
Horst Seehofer is more than a simple change of personnel. For one thing, he is Federal Minister of the interior. He is also head of the Christian Democrats, the Bavarian sister party of the Christian Democrats. Both parties CSU and CDU to form in the Bundestag a common group. He also contributes to the peculiarities of the free state of Bavaria to Berlin. All this together makes his follow-up question so complicated.
After all: If Seehofer, there are enough Junior personnel. Unlike the CDU, where Angela Merkel’s potential heirs are not as snake. That this is so, the now 69-Year-old years. He has made his followers are downright hot. However, he pushed his farewell to the policy further and further to the rear. What has led to many political frictions.
The unpopular crown Prince
In March Seehofer had to give up but then, after ten years, his Post as Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder. The 51-Year-old wanted to have Power always prefer to the same, and then all of a. The Prime Minister is not enough for him, he wants the party presidency. The wanted have issued Seehofer, actually. Now, however, is chosen only once until the fall of 2019. What he intends – as from his Ministerial position – not to move away, he said recently. The departure from Power is difficult for him still – the bad election outcome could accelerate the process.
A bad CSU result could lead to a final power struggle between Markus Söder (left) and Horst Seehofer
In Berlin of journalists when asked why he hesitate so, was that Seehofer’s Narrative again and again: His successor had to convince in Bavaria and in Berlin. And so that is the voice of the CSU, is actually a regional party, at the Federal level, powerful. The CSU Chairman sits on the Cabinet table in Berlin, as a guarantor.
The state election Seehofer and Söder fought a battle. To ensure that the survey values for the CSU go down for months, pushed to the other the debt, He added, was mixed for half a year in the Bavarian policy, so Seehofer. The Berlin policy and the local coalition crises were to blame, said Söder.
This year it is running for the CSU historically bad so far below the party in the polls has never been
In Bavaria Söder is not as popular as he should be. Although his Reputation within the CSU is quite good. Otherwise, many will keep him but for an egomaniac – just to his career, the classic case of a country not interested, so much father-type.
The favourite in the shadow
The recognized Seehofer also and, therefore, Ilse Aigner as his successor built. The 53-Year-old, however, the last hardly present in the media. In the summer, they had backed down. To fight against Söder, was “too stupid”, since they fought with various weapons.
Fighting a battle of their own: Ilse Aigner in a classic costume
Aigner, unlike Söder, already experience as a Federal Minister in the resume. In addition, she comes from upper Bavaria. This is important for the Bavarian Makes arithmetic. In Bavaria, the CSU is striving always to regional balance – Prime Minister Söder comes from Franconia. Aigner is also popular and could be a surprise, should it come to a strike vote to the party presidency. Memorial go to the case Söder would, could, Aigner also come for the Post of Prime Minister to the game – and then again on your own arms leave.
But: Before deciding on a Power-Duo need to be the Bayern a disagreement about whether the Power should be divided. A double peak was finally thought of in the past, always as successful as it is.
The man in Berlin
Another longtime protégé of Seehofer Alexander Dobrindt. The 48-Year-old has also been the Federal Minister. Now he is the head of the “CSU in the Bundestag”, so something like the Governor of Bavaria in Berlin.
Dobrindt, other than Aigner. In the heated debate about German asylum and migration policy, he appeared as the sharp-maker. To this end, he called for a “conservative turn”. His role as a mentor, many did not believe him. From his rabble-rouser role, he’s moved away now, probably because of the desired survey did not materialize, the effect.
Have tried to have as a thought leader for his party – the ambitious, Alexander Dobrindt
In Berlin Dobrindt recently appeared moderate, appealed to the unity of the party and did not want to comment on a possible Seehofer, the successor to the public – it leaves open all the options. In the Bundestag he is well connected – for example, the Merkel-Generation in the CDU, and the chief of the liberals, Christian Lindner, the FDP.
The against players from Brussels
In addition to Berlin and Munich, there is a third venue in case of a possible Seehofer follow-up. In Brussels, Manfred Weber actually waiting on it to be in 2019, head of the European Commission. To him are attributed a very good chance – the decision falls at the end of November. It would be the first Time in decades that a German would get these powerful Items. Currently, the 46-Year-old Chairman of the largest group, the “European people’s party”, in the EU Parliament.
Manfred Weber (left) wants to inherit President of the EU Commission Jean-Claude Juncker
Weber is more liberal than Dobrindt, or Söder, what makes it politically relevant could be because of the CSU to Govern to a coalition partner will need. This could be the left-liberals, Greens, or the “Free voters”, a municipal initiative by the Voters, politically just as conservative as the CSU; and perhaps also of the FDP.
The Party-Reserve
Joachim Herrmann
Then there is Joachim Herrmann. The 62-Year-old age is not one of the heirs Generation. In the last few years, but he was always for higher Offices in the conversation. Hermann is, so to speak, the iron party-Reserve. He is currently the Bavarian Minister of the interior.
Young hopeful, Andreas Scheuer has to do as a Federal Minister just hands full
Representatives of the Post-heritage generation, the need to prove himself, has posted the CSU in Berlin. To Andreas Scheuer, 44 years old. He is currently the Federal Minister for transport and infrastructure. In the coming years, he needs to prove himself at the still floor Expansion with high-speed Internet. With the topic of digitisation, even the 40-year-old Dorothee Bär is taken care of. She is Minister of state for Digital in the Chancellery.
A lot of the time Bayern is not after the elections: The Constitution provides for the formation of a government in a period of only four weeks
The lack of staff, so there is no lack, should wiggle Seehofer, and a personnel castling trigger. But who would prevail where, is a very complex game of Power.