France’s President has big plans for the EU, but he has to get to the East. He should have to put up with the Worries of this Region, writes the Romanian political Analyst Radu Magdin.
Just like German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron has internal politics much to the ears. Maybe more than he can handle at the Moment. This did not stop him from being at international and European level particularly active to defend multilateralism and to the fundamental values of the European Union. This is a laudable trait of character in times for Europe turbulent – in politics and in other areas as well.
Macron is in the midst of a charm offensive, he’s trying to get momentum for his proposals to Reform the EU. It is crucial that he recognizes friends and enemies – and understands that strategic interests weigh heavier than charm.
Eastern Europe is not a single Block
France has a key role in the EU and stands for a continuous integration process. This is something that could help Romania and other Brussels-friendly States – is quite different than Hungary or Poland. Under these circumstances, it is difficult to see Eastern Europe as a uniform Block. Macron has certainly brought a new French style of management and more vigor in the EU. He goes willingly on a collision course with an enemy coalition, led by Hungary and Italy. The Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is a regional intellectual leader, but unfortunately was not a constructive player for Macrons large European project.
In terms of EU leadership style Macron is credible and fairly predictable in its boldness. He has already presented several interesting proposals. The reactions of the Eastern EU States have been mixed. Germany is, de facto, continue to the equally beloved and hated leader of the EU (in the meantime, it is difficult to speak about a Franco-German Motor), while Poland, which has been raised recently to the Status of a developed market up, as the leader of the Eastern votes. What are the Eastern EU States want – from Paris, Berlin and Brussels – is a better seat at the table. Whether nationalism and Patriotism are in the West, popular or not, we live in a Patriotic and nationalist times. Self-consciousness is in the whole of Central and Eastern Europe a strong currency. A charm offensive is working in these countries, if you treat them with respect and, of course, the same is required of you – reciprocity is the key.
At the same time, the East is a kind of new capitalist expects social contract, on the Basis of which governments on the one hand, hold the doors open for the globalization and foreign companies, on the other hand, but make sure that its citizens are protected and are not exploited.
Emmanuel Macron in August 2017 to visit in Bucharest
It is not a matter to fight the US
The majority of the Eastern European States have – or want to-at least – good relations to the USA. This means that it should go to any “EU-first”discourse in Eastern Europe to a kind of (supra -) national consolidation of the European Union, to fight for stability and not about the USA. It is clear that not all EU States in the East the same. This is even true for the Visegrad group: Poland is likely to remain on the side of Hungary, but the Czech Republic and Slovakia are perhaps eager less to follow the Euro-sceptical messages from Warsaw and Budapest. Dealing with the topic of Migration connects the Visegrad States, but their solution proposals could fall France miss.
The countries of the Baltic region are more likely to have a strong Europe, in combination with strong transatlantic Connections. This is also true for Romania and Croatia, Bulgaria and Slovenia, but rather less. In some of these countries, positive experiences with the introduction of the Euro are helpful. Regardless of the Talk on the Acropolis – and Yes, Macron tried it with a very stylish speech – it helps if a country’s economy had to suffer a Greek tragedy.
Charm is not enough
The views of the Baltic and the Central and Eastern European countries shows that Macron could certainly find allies for his European plans, but he needs to tailor messages and from case to case, differentiated negotiation strategies. Personal charm is not enough. We live in a pragmatic, cynical and populist times where it is difficult to find someone to trust, to believe with full of passion to the EU – even if we him. Eastern Europe is aware of the fact that we’re all in the same boat, but it would like to have a say in important changes in the EU. Here is the challenge for any redesign of the block in the near future. The European elections in may 2019 may bring more clarity. Who is watching the development of the divergences between the Macron and Orban, get a sense of which direction the EU is going. Hopefully there will be a Chance to progress, if we have overcome the current problems.
Radu Magdin is a Romanian Analyst and policy adviser. Among other things, he has advised the Prime Minister of Romania (2014-2015) and the Prime Minister of the Republic of Moldova (2016-2017). From 2007 to 2012, he worked in Brussels for the European Parliament, EurActiv and Google. He belongs to the working group of the “NATO Emerging Leaders” of the Atlantic Council of the United States.