There is a lot of praise, but also doubt as to the durability of the demilitarized Zone in Idlib, which Turkey and Russia have reached an agreement. This is mainly due to radical Islamists.
The praise came from all sides: After the Turkish President Erdogan and Russian President Putin in Sochi on the establishment of a demilitarized Zone in the Syrian province of Idlib, the last remaining rebels had agreed to a castle in the country, outbid all the other two war parties, Syria and Iran, literally, with your Consent creeds.
The Syrian foreign Ministry in Damascus said the state Agency Sana, a “Initiative, which helps to avoid bloodshed and to restore security”.
Also, Tehran did not want to stand aside: By “responsible diplomacy” had succeeded, to prevent a “war in Idlib,” wrote the Iranian foreign Minister Mohammed Javad Zarif in the short message service Twitter. Sarif was, it is important to stress that Iran, too, had been involved in the negotiations between Ankara and Moscow.
Islamists are the greatest threat to peace
In fact, the agreement on the first Bick appears as a diplomatic success, With up to 20-kilometre-wide safety zone, which is up to 15. October should be set up and left all of the fighters of the Syrian Opposition, is likely to be averted the feared large-scale attack by the Syrian army on Idlib.
For the middle East expert Volker Perthes of the war was however not yet over. Perthes took in his analysis, especially the core of the Islamist fighters, are still in Idlib and in Parts of Turkey would be supported: “It will be a hard core of radikalstem and, here, you really have to say, terrorist resistance. This also includes Syrians include, but are not in the first line of the Syrians, but in the end it is quite a hard core of about 2000 Russian-speaking elements who belong to Al-Qaeda or its allies, the Nusra Front. ”
Especially radical Islamists threaten the peace in Idlib. Many of them come from the Russian-speaking abroad
On this, Perthes more “looks at Russia and has repeatedly made in recent months that Russia is not going to allow them to come back to Russia or in the former territories of the Soviet Union. In other words: Russia is saying, with these elements, the Turkey has to deal, or they must be killed,” the head of the science and politics Foundation (SWP), a research institution for foreign and security policy issues, based in Berlin.
Reminders and doubt
Only a few kilometers from the headquarters of the SWP away, you don’t like the mood in the foreign office fully in the rejoicing choirs of the Russian, Turkish, Syrian and Iranian government. Although the German foreign Minister Heiko Maas (SPD) had rushed shortly after the agreement, send it via Twitter his congratulations. He didn’t want to leave, however, to push immediately for a reminder later on: The agreement should be implemented “now,” says Maas. In the case of previous agreements in Syria this was not successful.
Also in Turkey itself, where the agreement, especially in the Pro-government press as a diplomatic Coup, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, was celebrated, doubts on the medium-term success of the agreement. Metin Gürcan has worked for many years as a consultant for the Turkish military. Today, he works as a security expert for the Istanbul Policy Center, an independent research Institute. Gürcan is of the opinion that Turkey had bought with the agreement: “The main risk for Ankara, begins from the age of 15. October. It is currently impossible to speak of a permanent solution. In the context of the promise of Turkey and Russia, Ankara is aligning with the opposition Radical in Idlib, the message that you need to lay down the weapons, if you want to stay, or that you have to leave Idlib and the weapons handed over, if you don’t want to stay.”
Metin Gürcan doubts the lasting peace to Idlib
For the security experts is that “Ankara will not be able to convince the Radicals. Ankara has been made to guarantee power for the Radicals that have a bad reputation. In Idlib, a military operation necessarily, if the Radical can not be convinced.”
Civilians are the weakest link
A renewed outbreak of fighting drives people, especially rights activists worry lines on the forehead. Ilyas Saliba is as a middle East expert at Amnesty International. In an interview with Deutsche Welle, he draws particular attention to the problematic role of the Syrian army in military conflicts. During the entire history of the civil war, the Syrian government had not provided troops sufficient to ensure that civilians are protected: “That applies even for the other parties to the conflict, but when it comes, in particular, air strikes, relates to the the Syrian air force. This is a clear violation of international humanitarian law. In addition, internationally banned weapons are used.”
Out of fear of attacks by the Syrian army, as well as children had practiced in Idlib the use of gas masks
Alone in the days before the agreement, according to the expert, would have documented, “Amnesty International, an intensification of the bombing by barrel and cluster bombs from villages in the South of the province of Idlib by the Syrian air force. At least 14 civilians were killed and at least 35 others were seriously injured.”
The current agreement granted to such military operations although first stop. The skepticism among security experts, however, makes it clear how fragile the situation really is. Almost half of the civilians currently living in Idlib, are internal refugees. Due to the fate of the civilian population is to be hoped that the fears of the experts in turn into reality.