The signs are growing that the Assad government wants to take back the rebel stronghold of Idlib. This approach is a matter of international dispute. We present the international actors and their interests.
The Assad Government
President Bashar al-Assad and his Ministers see themselves as General elections, legitimate government of the Syrians. That was the beginning of the Revolution in 2011, and the election in April of 2016, Assad has reiterated to its own view, this claim: He got almost 100 percent of the vote – critics at home and abroad called on the ballot, however, is a false choice. On their legitimacy to claim the government is also in their plans to recapture Idlibs.
Idlib is the last great stronghold of the rebels. After the government was advised Assad by the armed opposition forces in severe distress, she was able to conquer with massive military support of its allies Russia and Iran, large parts of the country back – if it occupies Idlib, has gained control of the country to a great extent.
In the Region have withdrawn up to 30,000 armed jihadists of different groups. For they rule over the city is the only option for the Future. That’s why you keep track of your concerns as well as determined as they were ruthless. According to eyewitness reports, they keep many of the in Idlib held civilians as human shields. Handles the government would the rebels without consideration for the civilians, so the calculus of the extremists, parts of the population turn to them.
This logic, also, the Assad government is aware of. Comparable Offensive, she has taken on the Syrian population, however, no consideration. Already there are reports that they yield about the city is the internationally banned barrel bombs. Assad’s goal is the control over the entire Syrian territory – from the looks of it, at any price.
Protection space: a Syrian looks from an underground hideout in Idlib
Russia
The Russian government supports Assad since the outbreak of the uprising in 2011. You did the first, only diplomatically, by submitting such in the UN security Council repeated Veto condemnations of the Assad government. Since 2015, she stands by Assad’s military. Russia fought the rebels from the ground, from the air and from the sea. To this end, massive military forces stationed in Syria. A portion has been deducted.
The Russian government is pursuing in Syria multiple targets. For one, it is the principle of national sovereignty. The uprising is from Moscow’s point of view, an internal Syrian matter. Therefore, Russia considered any outside interference as a violation of international law. The own use in Russia by the fact legitimated, that it was prompted by the Syrian government.
Moreover, Moscow is its military and political influence in the Region. Part of this is that it has stationed units in the military port of Tartus, and on several Syrian flight bases.
For Russia, the fight against the jihadists in Syria has become increasingly important. Moscow is afraid, a part of this – also from Russia and its neighbouring States – extremists could return to their home countries. With the attack on Idlib, Moscow wants to destroy the remaining jihadists. Critics point out, however, that a ruthlessly led attack could turn the civilians into sympathizers or even activists of the militant groups.
Failed attempt, clashes of Interests address: Hassan Rouhani, Recep Tayyip Erogan and Vladimir Putin in Teheran, 7. September 2018
Iran
Most importantly, the government in Tehran is to expand their Power in the Region. The Shiite Iran is competing with the Sunni Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for supremacy in the middle East. During the Syrian civil war, Iran has expanded its presence in Syria is massive. He can hold this Position, extends its influence over Iraq, Syria and parts of Lebanon up to the Israeli border. From the point of view of Israel, so he is standing directly in front of the Jewish state, which he sees as his main enemy.
At the same time, Tehran with this geopolitical axis would have created – the so – called Shiite Crescent-a formidable counterweight against Saudi Arabia.
In the calculus of Iran, the Assad government is the guarantor of the Iranian presence in Syria. A different government could be this may out of the question. That’s why Tehran is willing to support Assad when taking Idlibs and his rule to a large extent.
Also, economic interests will play for Iran a role. So Iranians have purchased in Damascus and other Syrian cities real estate. After the war, the calculus that will increase its value. Thus, the interdependence would grow with the Syrian economy – in times of the re-enacted embargoes against Iran, that would be a considerable relief.
Fight against terrorism: a us drone struck a vehicle near Idlib, reportedly for jihadist Nusra Front is one, of July 2018
USA
After the disastrous consequences of its Intervention in Iraq in 2003, the United States have reduced their commitment in the Middle East, solid back. President Barack Obama wanted to send US soldiers in the Region in the battle, his successor, Donald Trump is exceptional of the same opinion. Nevertheless, the US has stationed troops in the North of Syria. In terms of numbers, their presence is manageable, but you are a military factor. Repeatedly you have attacked jihadist militia.
Washington wants to also receive the American presence in the Region, in order to leave Russia greater influence. On the other hand, the U.S., Israel want to protect your most important allies in the Region. The government in Jerusalem, sees itself more and more by the Iran threatened. In negotiations with Russia, the US insistence on a withdrawal of Iran from Syria. The will not be likely to complete. But the United States have reached that Iranian troops maintain a minimum distance to the Israeli border.
Against the assault on Idlib in the United States have expressed no major concerns were raised. They emphasise alone, that civilians account to be taken of. In principle, they are with the conquest of the city and the expulsion of the militias agree and so, with the result that President Assad would remain in office. For a long time, had spoken in the USA.
Turkey
Turkey supports a number of opposition groups working to overthrow Assad. To this end, Ankara is known already years ago.
Massive presence: observation post of the Turkish army on the border near Idlib
Meanwhile, the Turkey, however, is new challenges. For one, more and more refugees from Syria have come into the country and the acceptance of the migrants is waning. A military offensive against Idlib but would drive probably tens of thousands of more people in the escape and in Turkey. That is why the government warns of a re-conquest Idlibs.
Ankara also wants to prevent jihadists from Syria could expand into Turkey, although she has supported many groups over the years. For this reason, it has tightened up the Monitoring of the border with Syria and Turkish troops on Syrian territory close to Idlib stationed.
The main enemies of Turkey are the Kurds and their aspirations for Autonomy. Ankara has attacked in January 2018, together with the militias of the Free Syrian army in the Region of Afrin in Northern Syria and taken, and a majority of the Kurdish population expelled from the city.
The European Union
The European Union has played in the war in Syria militarily. Individual countries had supported the secular rebels and the Kurds and the jihadists fighting it.
Active in the EU, especially in the humanitarian area. Some of its member States – particularly Germany – was attended by many Syrian refugees. In the meantime, the EU countries are mainly interested to keep the number of refugees as low as possible. The more troubled European governments are in the face of an assault on Idlib – would drive many residents to flee.
At the same time, the EU States are in favour of an end to the Assad government. They accuse him and his government of numerous human rights violations. Germany is considering in the event that the Assad government should put in Idlib poison gas, military use, is politically disputed.
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