Vladimir Putin is coming to Germany. What is on the agenda at the Meeting with Angela Merkel at Schloss Meseberg? Most of the conversation topics mountains, plenty of fuel for conflict.
After Merkel’s visit in may in Sochi, this is already the second meeting between the German Chancellor and the Russian President within three months. According to government spokesman Steffen three themes Seibert, the focus of the meeting: the war in Syria, the crisis in Ukraine and the gas Pipeline Nord Stream 2.
Sabine Fischer from the Foundation for science and politics do not anticipate that in Meseberg decisive breakthroughs are achieved. “The goals have not changed,” the Eastern Europe expert. “Russia has its positions with regard to Syria and the Ukraine and a strong interest in Nord Stream 2 is realized, and the Russian side will continue to pursue these objectives.”
The Ukraine Problem
Since the outbreak of the conflict in the East of Ukraine in the spring of 2014, over 10,000 people have lost their lives. The annexation of the Crimea by Russia, the conflict has attracted international outrage, and there are strong indications that Russian military support for Pro-Russian separatists and helped to control large parts of Eastern Ukraine.
Together with France, Germany has tried several times to a ceasefire between the Ukrainian government and the separatists to negotiate, which would be monitored by blue helmet soldiers of the UN. How exactly this could be implemented, however, is unclear.
In four years, more than 10,000 people died in the conflict in Eastern Ukraine claimed the lives of
In the past year, Putin suggested that blue helmets should not be used in the Ukraine for a mission of peace, but for the protection of the employees of the organization for security and cooperation in Europe (OSCE). This proposal was intensively discussed, but without result. “I see a willingness to talk on the Russian side, but I don’t see any great willingness to seek real compromises,” said Sabine Fischer.
Actually, in Ukraine, a ceasefire should be in place – this is the Minsk agreement, which was signed in the spring of 2015. The OSCE is entrusted with the Monitoring. In the conflict, the OSCE is not allowed to intervene, however.
“What Merkel is trying to present, is, above all, a de-escalation of the situation on the Azov sea [to pass to the South of Donesk] in the way,” Olaf Böhnke from the policy advice office of Rasmussen Global. “Recently, an escalation [of the conflict] between the Ukrainian and the Russian Navy was here to observe.”
The Syrian nightmare
That Merkel and Putin on the Syria issue to find a common stance, it seems even less likely than in the Ukraine conflict. In the Syrian civil war since 2011, hundreds of thousands of people have been killed and millions have been displaced. President Putin is the closest ally of ruler Bashar al-Assad. Germany has not been involved so far, although militarily in the conflict, Merkel has, however, the military operations of France, the UK or the USA against Assad’s Regime have been approved.
The province of Idlib is considered to be one of the last rebel strongholds in Syria
On 7. September in Istanbul is a Meeting of the heads of state and government of Turkey, France, Germany and Russia planned. In Meseberg, Merkel and Putin will try as much as possible on these four peaks, it is to prepare.
At the top of the Agenda the situation in Idlib province is expected to be in the North-West of Syria. There, Assad has launched a new major offensive. The Region is considered to be one of the last rebel strongholds in the country. Merkel and her allies, including Turkey, want to prevent another massacre. But support for Putin is crucial. “I think Merkel will at least try to gain a little time, and [to convince Putin] to give Assad for the destruction of Idlib, no green light,” Olaf Böhnke.
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Merkel meets Putin for talks in Meseberg
After a U.S. missile attack on a Syrian chemical weapons storage in April, the Russian President recently announced, the Syrian army with S-300 air defense missiles to equip, withdrew the offer. This shows that Russia in the Syria question, to adopt a more conciliatory Position? No, says Sabine Fischer. “Putin has already announced on several occasions the withdrawal from Syria. These Withdrawals are then in the best case, to become Part of withdrawals. I think, overall, Russia is always looking for ways – not only in Syria, in the Ukraine, his commitment to take back, but very strongly also to the own conditions.”
The Nord Stream gas pipeline, 2 comes?
While Germany and Russia are to be found in international conflicts, often on different sides, operate in both countries at the same time a comprehensive joint infrastructure project: the gas Pipeline Nord Stream 2. This 1200-Kilometer long pipeline is to transport through the North sea Gas from Russia directly to Germany.
However, even in the case of this project, Germany and Russia are not always together.
In Germany and around the world, the Nord-Stream-2 project is seen very critically, because it could have far-reaching geopolitical consequences, especially for Ukraine. Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines, the lead on the ground, among others, by Ukraine – from Russia to Germany, would lose its importance. So the Ukraine would not miss the revenue, it would also be easier for Russia, Ukraine to turn off the Gas, without other countries would be affected.
The Ukrainian President, Petro Poroshenko, sees the Nord Stream project 2 “politically motivated” and as a “geopolitical Affront of Russia”. Therefore, the Chancellor calls for Merkel, Russia should not guarantee of Ukraine, to cut off their gas supply.