Taliban (and IS) to challenge the government in Kabul with Raids and attacks. Nevertheless, a negotiated solution with the Taliban is the only way, says Afghanistan expert Thomas Ruttig in the DW-interview.
DW: In October, to take place in Afghanistan’s parliamentary elections. Meanwhile, Taliban and the IS-offshoot, increase in Afghanistan by military attacks, and attacks to the pressure on the government. To what extent is the democratic reconstruction of Afghanistan is possible under such circumstances?
Thomas Ruttig: The democratic process in Afghanistan is and has been for some time in reverse gear. This has only to do with the Taliban. You have to expect that the Taliban electoral institutions, and probably also on the day of the election, to attack. There has been such incidents. We also have to do with the local branch of the “Islamic state”, acting in the same direction. But the main point is that a large part of the Afghan elites believe, in spite of their lip service is really a democracy and that the democratic institutions that are in the Constitution, to a large extent only facades have character and to be part active of these elites undermined and eroded.
The Problem is even deeper: It has focused from the beginning on the fight against the Taliban, the defeated at the beginning and not very strong, and has mobilized the Warlords, so the war criminals and human rights violators of the preceding eras of the war, politically as allies and had to, of course, also in the institutions. These people are armed, they have been prosecuted for their crimes of the past never, you have given an Amnesty in Parliament, which has condemned the international community, and from this position of power, you can control the name to democratic institutions. So Non – Democrats in control of the democratic institutions; under such conditions democracy is not possible.
Afghanistan expert Ruttig: Can be brought the ideas of the Taliban and the Afghans in Accordance?
Nevertheless, the existing civilian institutions should be strengthened in Afghanistan. What is the recent attack by the Taliban on the city of Ghasni about their strength?
The Taliban are basically as strong as never before. You can master far more territory and population, as they have done since their overthrow in 2001. The attack on Ghasni was not the first to a big city in Afghanistan this year and in the past few years. We remember Kunduz 2015, we remember less from the fact that 2016 is happening something similar in Kunduz as it is now in Ghasni. The Taliban go in, dominate the town for a few days and go out again. This shows that you still have the Initiative and the Afghan armed forces, despite all the investment in training, but also in Finance, you will not be able to take the Initiative and basically incorrectly and still too weak. Too weak in all aspects except in terms of numbers, because it is about 350.000 men.
US in Afghanistan: enemies and partners at the same time
As far as the military strength. What the Taliban is with the diplomatic strength? A solution was through negotiations?
The attack on the city of Ghasni and the Taliban have the also officially known – was a demonstration of power. Yesterday you explained that this attack was motivated by the assumption that the Americans have said that they want to put to the Taliban before negotiations military strikes. Now the Taliban have struck. This is a bit of a Bust for the Americans, as well as, of course, for the Afghan government. But it does not mean yet, as cynical as this may sound, especially for the people who are affected by this Fight, that there can be no negotiations.
There are the usual demonstrations of strength before negotiations. We have had two rounds of preliminary talks, in Qatar and Uzbekistan. It is announced that the Americans and the Taliban want to meet in a month again in Uzbekistan. This seems to be going on. The Problem, especially for the Afghan government is that, so far, and not very benevolent. The Americans, however, have repeatedly stated publicly that one of the goals of these discussions is that at a certain point, the Afghan government needs to be involved. And you have to come in with, because it is of course also a party to the conflict. The Taliban reject the past. You say you want to speak with the Americans, to a timetable for troop withdrawal, and if this was to happen, then you would also be willing to talk with the Afghan government. I think that’s not a bad schedule, if you can see, what is the extent of the bloodshed in Afghanistan.
Anger over the senseless violence of the “IS” against students
How do you rate – in view of the recent intensification of the fighting and Raids – the broadening of the scenes between unarmed Taliban fighters and government forces male on the occasion of the truce for Ramadan-by the end of June?
With civilians, there were such scenes, and although fairly widespread in Afghanistan. All sides were surprised, the Afghan government was positively surprised. One should not overstate such things, of course, but on the other hand, such symbolic acts as a short cease-fire are also very important. You have shown to the Afghans and the Afghans on all sides, that the people want peace, and the people saw for the first Time, even if only for a few days, how Afghanistan could under peaceful conditions. This has raised hopes.
You can’t now expect that something changes in the total peace, there still needs to be done a lot of work in negotiations. But it also shows that the Taliban fighters ultimately, the nose is full and will not want to fight. But of course you have also said in their appearances in the cities again and again: Our Problem is the Americans are. We want to go out. You are not come and said We have no more desire to Fight. But you have said that, Under certain conditions, we are ready to stop fighting. And that is positive. And in spite of all of this violence, especially in the last days and the battles we have to say that this is the only possible way to do so.
Taliban could become friends with girls ‘ education – and more?
How would you imagine a future regime in Afghanistan, with a significant Taliban involvement? It is then assumed, for instance, achievements such as girls ‘ and women’s education could continue to exist?
This is of course an uphill battle, for these achievements to be maintained. Therefore, the Afghan government also needs to be a morally strong Position. We have talked at the beginning about the war criminals in their ranks. And the are not in a Position to tell the Taliban this and that. Also on the government side, there are a lot of people, the girl’s education or women in the media refuse completely. This will be a hard fight, and it is not entirely clear whether you can rely on the Afghan government.
On the other hand, the Taliban have modified their policies since their exercise of power. There are voices among them who say: Yes, girls should go to school. But the Taliban have, of course, still conditions in the practice that are not consistent with our ideas. It is now time to find out if they can match the expectations of most Afghans, if for example it is said that the girls should just go up to the sixth grade. Then you have to find ways, even with the Taliban that girls can also take higher education. We know that Taliban leader daughters abroad and daughters to the University.
Democracy under pressure from inside and outside
Educational institutions are mainly taken from the IS offshoot in Afghanistan to target, with as many Victims, as yesterday, in a Shia neighbourhood in Kabul. Is are the IS now a greater threat to Afghanistan than the Taliban?
No, the threat posed by the IS is not nearly as large as the Taliban. Disproportionate the IS terror ist attacks, such as yesterday at the education center in Kabul. But on the actual field of battle, where the conflict, if he chooses the military, would decide, is the IS only one absolute edge of the group. What counts are the Taliban, and the not see the IS also has a positive effect, but you fight him active and very brutally in the areas where he shows up. In may, there was a big Taliban Offensive in a province in the North-West of the country, where the only IS group, which operates near the border with Pakistan, was active. The Taliban have eliminated this group almost completely.
The IS offshoot in Afghanistan trying to get there, as in Syria and in Iraq, to provoke an armed conflict between the Shiites and the Sunnis. This did not succeed, but fortunately, so far, because the IS has no base in the country. In all of the underlying tensions that there are in Afghanistan, sometimes between Shiites and Sunnis, but rather of a theoretical nature than that resorted to the weapons. And despite the terrible plot with more than 30 of the dead the girls and boys, which have been prepared in Kabul on the University entrance examination, one must not forget that The majority of civilian casualties in Afghanistan are caused by the Taliban, if not (more) by such direct attacks on civilian targets.
Thomas Ruttig is Co-branches of the Afghanistan Analysts Network (AAN)