Who will win the Match Russia-sanctions in Washington?

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US senators call for new sanctions against Russia. Although in the USA about the meaning of which is disputed, and US President, Trump hesitates, could rubber-stamp Republicans in Congress. From Washington, Michael Knigge.

Uncle Sam at the penalty kick against Putin: the “series of sanctions” (the Russian Text) is also a Cheerleader for Trump?

The relationship between the United States and Russia reached a historic low point. Last Thursday, several democratic and Republican U.S. senators submitted a new draft law that provides for tough sanctions against Russia. Moscow should be punished for his alleged interference in the American election campaign, said. US-intelligence services and security forces were at the same time worried that Russia could try to manipulate the mid-term elections in November.

But what is the Initiative for new punitive measures, which also applies as a criticism of President US President Donald Trump? Because hesitates to draw the Kremlin to account.

“There is to act on the request,” explains Chris Miller, Deputy Director of the Russian program at Tufts University in Boston, the thrust of the senators. “The chances that Congress passed the bill that are good.”

Hardness, but how?

The parliamentarians want to show hardness. Normally, the Republican Congress is holding back members with criticism of US President, Trump. “But when it comes to Russia,” Miller says, they could be the consent of the population, for sure: “There is very little support for a softer policy on Russia.”

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham wants to impose new sanctions against Moscow

Despite the criticism of Moscow, it will not be easy to adopt new sanctions. Because penalties, which are easy for Washington and hard, for Moscow, have already been imposed in 2014 after the occupation of the Ukrainian Crimea. In addition, the U.S. Congress in 2017, approved a law with sanctions against Russia and other countries, and put Trump under pressure to act.

“The challenge for Congress is to make measures that are painful for the Russian economy, but the US does not burden American companies with excessively high costs,” says Miller. For this reason, the restrictions on trade with the Russian state could prove bonds difficult.

For each issue a sanction

The reason is that The consequences could also get a lot of US citizens, because a number of American pension funds invested in Russian government bonds. Before the deputies in the Congress agreed to a so cuts to the pensions of their population, you would think at least twice.

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But political conflicts can be external at all, by sanctions to solve? Timothy Frye of Columbia University in New York, no doubt of that. “The already imposed sanctions to work, and it is important for you to maintain,” explains the scientist. “But there is the risk that each issue of foreign policy, with new sanctions to be solved.”

Members of Congress demanded reflexively, according to the sanctions, because this was a politically effective and painful penalties were imposed. “However, the seductive impression that you could get sanctions all sorts of problems in the handle makes them ultimately less effective,” says Frye.

Behind the existing measures, the expert said, would be a clear intention and a measurable effect. “They were a Signal to the Kremlin that the annexation of Crimea represents a violation of international humanitarian law, and not without consequences.”

There is no proof, hardly any effect

According to Frye, the punitive measures have had long-term strong economic impact, because it values Russia the financing of capital-intensive projects. At the same time the sanctions, to reward desirable behavior and punish undesirable allowed.

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“In the case of sanctions against interference in the election campaign, the matter is more complicated,” said Frye. “Because of the detection of attacks and the verification of allegations is much more difficult than is the case with the apparent support of separatists in Eastern Ukraine or the annexation of the Crimea.”

In spite of these objections, and the doubts as to the efficacy of new sanctions, the probability is great that a further package of measures will pass Congress. The American-Russian relations, as the experts agree, were never as bad as currently.

“The efforts of US President Trump, to improve the relationship, have not changed anything,” says Timothy Frye. “In 1983, U.S. President Ronald Reagan described the Soviet Union as an ‘Empire of Evil’,” he says. “But even during the Cold war, the relations in some aspects were better.”