“The ideology of the IS acts more”

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Even if the Islamic state has lost control of Mosul and Rakka is the case: The terrorist-militia will not disappear. Terrorism expert Guido Steinberg speaks in a DW Interview about the breeding ground of terror.

Deutsche Welle: The so-called Islamic state has suffered in Mosul, a defeat; even in its capital city of Rakka in Syria, he is under considerable pressure. How is it going with the IS?

Guido Steinberg: We are going to have to do with the IS still quite a while. The only question is: In what Form? This Quasi-rule of law is now ended, and it is also hard, in this direction go back. From my point of view, the is is an Iraqi organization. In the last few months, we have observed that the IS going in the direction in which he is in 2006, already gone: first, to its funding in Iraq for sure. Secondly, he is trying to important staff to kill the opposing side. Thirdly, he committed the sensational attacks. These are the three pillars of the present or of the future IS strategy.

Terrorism expert with the Foundation for science and politics: Guido Steinberg

Keyword financing: In recent times Yes, a number of initiatives have been decided to place the financial sources of terrorism dry. This will have an impact on the IS?

No, this funding fight has often little to do with the individual organizations. The is is located in a very rich country. He has managed in the past to Finance and will again in the future. The question is: How exactly and where?

In the past, especially Mosul, the funding center, from the years 2006 to 2012. It is the question of whether he can do it again, how pronounced, the control of the city will be there. But he is financed from the conflict in Iraq, because I have absolutely no doubt.

The battle for Mosul was conducted with great brutality by both sides, as both Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch say, and how to take pictures and Videos of torture and executions of alleged IS fighters, and their families documents. The city, especially the old town, is in ruins. How well the Iraqi state, the international community, to organize reconstruction and reconciliation, and to escape the IS the breeding ground is?

The Situation in Iraq is certainly better than in the neighboring country of Syria, because Iraq has a functioning government. The big question is: What are the ideas of the government in Baghdad, Mosul actually are? There is reason to fear that the Shiite-Islamist – influenced government in Baghdad – which is also under heavy Iranian influence-believes in the great reconciliation with the Sunni of Mosul. Therefore, the fear is that the political Problem is not eliminated, underlying the rise of the IS. Reconstruction is certainly not as very big Problem, because Iraq is a rich country – and because he can count on the subject of sure to the help of German and also of other States. But the political dimensions of the Whole are crucial – and because we don’t know yet in which direction to Baghdad.

Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider Al-Abadi meets at 9. July in the liberated Mosul a

You have spoken of the fundamental political Problem is the rise of the IS. What exactly is this Problem?

The basic Problem is that we have had in Iraq in the years after 2003, a rebellion. Of the insurgent factions, only the IS left, initially in the form of Iraqi Al-Qaeda. This organization has tremendously benefited from the Sunnis, but also Secularists, who were elected by the Sunnis, were pushed into the following years to the edge of the political system. The had little influence on the fortunes of Iraq, which is now heavily under the influence of Iran. It is Shiite Islamist parties, the Sunnis barely a participation zuzustehen ready to dominate now. This is the Problem of Iraqi politics, and I see at the Moment no fundamental Change, even if certainly some politicians in Baghdad understand the Problem.

Mosul is the largest city in Iraq, which was liberated by the IS, but not the first. As it was previously, among other things, Tikrit, Ramadi and Fallujah. How has the Situation developed there?

In most cities, but especially in Tikrit and Ramadi, there have been human rights violations, especially against the Sunni civilian population, against prisoners, which has that they are IS fighters or sympathisers. The experience of the last few months to leave little hope. However, one must say: Everywhere where the IS has been distributed, the Situation is still very bad. Simply because large parts of these cities are destroyed, because you are not yet cleared of booby traps. There are still very many practical problems. A policy of the Central government, which allows little hope that the government in Baghdad is a different policy than in the past to lead is ready. That’s why I’m firmly convinced that the IS – or perhaps other organizations will have in the future recruiting pool in the North and West of Iraq.

The IS has spread around the world – also in the Philippines as it is here in Merawi

How damaged the “brand” IS through the defeat in Mosul, and how will this affect the recruitment of followers?

Unfortunately, this is not to say very carefully, because the IS has been to an extremely attractive, much more attractive as a terrorist organisations in front of him. Therefore, the fear is that the ideology works. But this ideology has wrought, especially because the IS was able to of a claim: to be A state. Of this Islamic state on the model of the seventh century, the example of the prophet, have dreamed of many Salafists around the world. Now it is no more, perhaps even the Caliph is dead. This raises the question: How much the state has to offer the IS actually, to recruits attract? We do not know in the end.

What is the meaning of the weakening of the IS for the terrorist threat in Europe?

The terrorist threat in Europe is very high and I don’t think that will change something fundamental. On the one hand, we see that our security agencies respond that they are better positioned than in 2014 and 2015. This leads to the fact that the major attacks, the absence, in the meantime, such as, for example, in Paris on 13.11.2015. On the other hand, we have to expect that with the defeat of the IS very many fighters are dodging. A part will certainly return in the home countries. A part may also be sent on the way, so that the terrorist threat in Europe is likely to remain at a similar level as in the last two years – with the one restriction: It is used for the IS heavy, without the organization of opportunities that he had as a Quasi-state, to perpetrate big attacks in Paris. We will probably have to do with smaller attacks, such as we have in recent years often seen.

 

The Islamic scholar Guido Steinberg, terrorism expert at the Berlin science and politics Foundation.
The questions were asked by Matthias von Hein.